Analysis Expected Points Free Hit

How to use Game Week 35’s Free Hit #FPL

This post is based off of our Expected Points post which will be posted later on this evening, with all of players being brought in based off of bookie’s odds and likelihoods of scoring, whilst also fitting within a 100m budget.

An ideal free hit XI would include:

GK: Jack Butland: 5.0m – 3.59
DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold: 4.4m – 4.36
DEF: Nicolas Otamendi: 6.3m – 5.57
DEF: Shkodran Mustafi:  5.5m – 4.53
MF: Sadio Mane: 9.3 – 4.84
MF: Mohamed Salah: 10.5m – 7.19 (C)
MF: Raheem Sterling: 8.7m – 6.34 (VC)
MF: Wilfried Zaha: 6.9m – 4.35
FW: Gabriel Jesus: 10.0m – 5.28
FW: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: 10.7m – 5.79
FW: Chris Wood: 6.3m – 4.28

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In total the players would amass a total of 56.12 points, when accounting for the double captain points the tally would equate to 63.31 points. A supreme tally based off of the fixtures.

3.59 + 4.36 + 5.57 + 4.53 + 4.84 + (7.19 x 2) + 6.34 + 4.35 + 5.28 + 5.79 + 4.28

The starting XI has 3 City players, Sterling Otamendi and Jesus, the 3 highest expected City players meaning no more can be chosen. We have chosen the 3 most likely point scorers from the attackers with Wood, Jesus and Aubameyang all expected to score higher than Firmino, Tosun and Benteke.

In Midfield we can only choose one City midfielder due to choosing Otamendi and Jesus, so we chose the highest performing player Sterling. We also had to choose Salah who was 10.5m, who is this week’s captain. We also bring in Sadio Mane, who is a a 9.5m man, and brings in 4.84 points.

5.0 + 4.4 + 6.3 + 5.5 + 9.5 + 10.5 + 8.7 + 6.9 + 10 + 10.7 + 6.3 = 83.8

As for the bench we’ve chosen the cheapest possible options except for Long which is a 4.0, instead of a 3.9. Sometimes its safe to have a bench player worst case scenario a starter doesn’t start. We have 2 players on the bench which are likely to start in Long and King which gives us some balance to a Free hit Squad.

Maenpaa 3.9
Long 4.0
Mbemba 3.9
Andy King 4.2

In total the bench costs us another 16m bringing the grand total to 99.8m. This team should help you shoot up the ranks using your free hit.

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