Expected Points Will They Score?

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 31

The blank game week has been a long time coming, and nothing quite prepares someone for the fixtures this game week offers. Only 4 players have a point expectancy of 5 or more and you’d be right in guessing that they would be Liverpool players. Of our top 8 players, 8 of them are Liverpool players, while Bournemouth defenders creep ahead of Stoke’s Chuopo Moting and Bournemouth attackers Callum Wilson and Junior Stanislas.

This week’s most likely point scorer is Mohamed Salah with 7.26 points, followed closely by Sadio Mane and Virgil van Dijk. You would be mad to consider anyone other than the Egyptian a viable option. At OddsOnFPL we understand that you may want a differential, but with 6 game weeks after this one, you’d be best off going with the player who is 1.54 points better off than the second most likely.

While people are looking for a striker to replace Kane, Roberto Firmino is the best option at 4.96 points, while Callum Wilson is the only attacker outside of Liverpool with a point expectancy above 4.00, with recent riser Steve Mounie only at 3.75 points. For 0.25 points worth of a -4, it might be worth taking a punt on Mounie, or Benteke (3.51).

As for people who are considering bringing in a GW31 keeper, the two best options are Karius and Asmir Begovic, though I believe Jack Butland could score more than his expected 3.42 points.

Player NamePositionClubAnytime ExpectedAnytime ProbabilityTwo or More ExpectedClean Sheet PointsSum ExpectedSum Starting Exp.
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool3.2164.28%1.490.555.267.26
Sadio ManeMidfielderLiverpool2.3847.62%0.790.553.725.72
Virgil van DijkDefenderLiverpool0.9615.97%0.12.23.265.26
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool0.8614.31%0.082.23.145.14
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool0.711.75%0.062.22.974.97
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool2.1453.39%0.8202.964.96
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool0.6110.19%0.042.22.854.85
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool0.599.86%0.042.22.834.83
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth0.8313.84%0.081.592.54.5
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth0.711.62%0.061.592.354.35
Junior StanislasMidfielderBournemouth1.5430.83%0.370.42.314.31
Nathan AkeDefenderBournemouth0.6410.71%0.051.592.284.28
Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingMidfielderStoke1.5430.89%0.360.352.264.26
Callum WilsonForwardBournemouth1.6842.04%0.5202.24.2
Loris KariusGoalkeeperLiverpool0002.22.24.2
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth0.538.81%0.031.592.154.15
Wilfried ZahaMidfielderCrystal Palace1.3827.52%0.280.362.024.02
JeseMidfielderStoke1.3627.30%0.260.351.983.98
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace0.58.41%0.041.441.983.98
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton0.6911.43%0.061.221.973.97
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke0.518.54%0.031.421.963.96
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderLiverpool1.2224.44%0.190.551.963.96
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke1.3326.59%0.270.351.953.95
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool0.6911.55%0.062.22.953.95
Kurt ZoumaDefenderStoke0.498.18%0.031.421.943.94
Tom InceMidfielderHuddersfield1.2424.76%0.260.341.843.84
Mamadou SakhoDefenderCrystal Palace0.376.20%0.031.441.833.83
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth1.4135.25%0.3701.783.78
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace0.315.24%0.021.441.773.77
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield0.386.28%0.031.361.763.76
Steve MounieForwardHuddersfield1.3934.63%0.3701.753.75
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool0.498.12%0.042.22.723.72
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton0.477.77%0.031.221.723.72
ZankaDefenderHuddersfield0.335.56%0.031.361.723.72
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool1.0220.46%0.140.551.723.72
Theo WalcottMidfielderEverton1.223.95%0.210.311.713.71
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield0.335.46%0.021.361.713.71
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton1.1623.28%0.210.311.683.68
Erik PietersDefenderStoke0.223.74%0.021.421.663.66
Alex PritchardMidfielderHuddersfield1.1122.25%0.190.341.643.64
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool1.2620.96%0.162.23.613.61
Ruben Loftus-CheekMidfielderCrystal Palace1.0821.52%0.180.361.613.61
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom0.6610.95%0.070.891.613.61
Asmir BegovicGoalkeeperBournemouth0001.591.593.59
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace1.0420.86%0.170.361.573.57
Jonjoe KennyDefenderEverton0.274.57%0.021.221.523.52
Adam LallanaMidfielderLiverpool1.6132.14%0.350.552.513.51
Christian BentekeForwardCrystal Palace1.2230.49%0.2901.513.51
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield120.01%0.170.341.513.51
Wayne HennesseyGoalkeeperCrystal Palace0001.441.443.44
Cenk TosunForwardEverton1.1629.09%0.2701.433.43
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke0.9519.01%0.130.351.433.43
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth0.9318.53%0.110.41.433.43
Jack ButlandGoalkeeperStoke0001.421.423.42
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace0.9218.32%0.130.361.43.4
Ahmed HegaziDefenderWest Brom0.457.52%0.030.891.373.37
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom0.457.42%0.030.891.373.37
Jonas LosslGoalkeeperHuddersfield0001.361.363.36
Jay RodriguezForwardWest Brom1.1127.71%0.2401.353.35
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom0.9719.47%0.160.221.353.35
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace0.8817.54%0.110.361.353.35
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace0.8213.62%0.091.442.343.34
Kieran GibbsDefenderWest Brom0.376.21%0.030.891.293.29
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace0.7312.15%0.071.442.233.23
Jordan PickfordGoalkeeperEverton0001.221.223.22
RicharlisonMidfielderWatford0.9719.37%0.160.081.213.21
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom0.7815.55%0.10.221.13.1
Jermain DefoeForwardBournemouth1.6240.41%0.4702.093.09
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke0.549.00%0.041.4223
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth0.355.88%0.031.591.972.97
Kiko FemeniaDefenderWatford0.589.74%0.060.30.952.95
Andre GrayForwardWatford0.7919.70%0.1300.922.92
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom0.6312.50%0.070.220.922.92
Darren FletcherMidfielderStoke0.5110.28%0.040.350.912.91
Ben FosterGoalkeeperWest Brom0000.890.892.89
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool1.8637.26%0.420.552.832.83
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford0.6713.35%0.080.080.832.83
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford0.6713.42%0.080.080.832.83
Will HughesMidfielderWatford0.6613.21%0.090.080.832.83
Grzegorz KrychowiakMidfielderWest Brom0.5611.11%0.060.220.832.83
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford0.467.71%0.040.30.82.8
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield0.427.01%0.031.361.82.8
Timothy Fosu-MensahDefenderCrystal Palace0.325.38%0.021.441.782.78
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton0.438.59%0.030.310.772.77
Kevin WimmerDefenderStoke0.335.58%0.021.421.772.77
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford0.6212.33%0.070.080.762.76
Gareth BarryMidfielderWest Brom0.489.61%0.040.220.752.75
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford0.611.91%0.070.080.742.74
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth1.1422.81%0.190.41.732.73
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford0.396.48%0.030.30.722.72
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool0.487.98%0.032.22.712.71
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth1.1122.28%0.190.41.72.7
Moritz BauerDefenderStoke0.233.89%0.021.421.672.67
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool1.9749.26%0.6902.662.66
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool0.9819.57%0.120.551.652.65
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford0.335.43%0.020.30.652.65
Danny IngsForwardLiverpool1.9649.02%0.6802.642.64
Seamus ColemanDefenderEverton0.599.85%0.0500.642.64
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth1.0821.52%0.160.41.632.63
Miguel BritosDefenderWatford0.315.08%0.020.30.632.63
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke1.0621.16%0.170.351.582.58
Gareth McAuleyDefenderWest Brom0.6210.26%0.050.891.552.55
Peter CrouchForwardStoke1.2531.13%0.2901.542.54
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth0.9819.50%0.140.41.522.52
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield120.03%0.150.341.492.49
Konstantinos StafylidisDefenderStoke0.457.48%0.0300.482.48
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton0.243.96%0.021.221.482.48
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool0.8116.26%0.080.551.452.45
Alexander SorlothForwardCrystal Palace1.1428.59%0.2401.392.39
Nikola VlasicMidfielderEverton0.9418.78%0.130.311.372.37
Oumar NiasseForwardEverton1.1127.83%0.2301.352.35
GomesGoalkeeperWatford0000.30.32.3
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton1.0626.49%0.2101.272.27
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom1.0425.89%0.2101.252.25
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth0.7615.22%0.080.41.242.24
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton1.0125.24%0.1901.22.2
Danny WardGoalkeeperLiverpool0002.22.22.2
Simon MignoletGoalkeeperLiverpool0002.22.22.2
Adam BogdanGoalkeeperLiverpool0002.22.22.2
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace0.7314.52%0.090.361.172.17
Allan NyomDefenderWest Brom0.223.61%0.020.891.122.12
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth0.477.83%0.031.592.092.09
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth0.427.04%0.071.592.082.08
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford0.8922.13%0.1601.042.04
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield0.6112.27%0.060.341.012.01
Jairo RiedewaldDefenderCrystal Palace0.538.87%0.051.442.012.01
Aaron Wan-BissakaDefenderCrystal Palace0.498.18%0.031.441.961.96
Michael HefeleDefenderHuddersfield0.559.09%0.041.361.941.94
Jaroslaw JachDefenderCrystal Palace0.467.69%0.041.441.941.94
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton0.5611.20%0.050.310.921.92
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth0.469.24%0.030.40.891.89
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton0.5210.38%0.050.310.881.88
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke0.396.57%0.031.421.841.84
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace0.376.18%0.031.441.831.83
Scott MaloneDefenderHuddersfield0.427.01%0.031.361.81.8
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke0.355.85%0.021.421.791.79
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke0.345.65%0.021.421.781.78
Pape SouareDefenderCrystal Palace0.325.26%0.021.441.771.77
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace0.35.06%0.021.441.761.76
Florent HadergjonajDefenderHuddersfield0.376.20%0.031.361.751.75
Laurent DepoitreForwardHuddersfield1.3533.79%0.3601.711.71
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton0.426.96%0.031.221.671.67
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth1.3333.13%0.3201.641.64
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom0.387.65%0.030.220.631.63
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton0.345.70%0.021.221.591.59
Adam FedericiGoalkeeperBournemouth0001.591.591.59
Aaron RamsdaleGoalkeeperBournemouth0001.591.591.59
Artur BorucGoalkeeperBournemouth0001.591.591.59
Adrian MariappaDefenderWatford0.213.52%0.020.30.541.54
Yannick BolasieMidfielderEverton1.0420.79%0.160.311.51.5
Abdelhamid SabiriMidfielderHuddersfield0.9719.50%0.150.341.471.47
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom1.1729.33%0.2801.451.45
Didier NdongMidfielderWatford0.346.86%0.030.080.451.45
Julian SperoniGoalkeeperCrystal Palace0001.441.441.44
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke1.1729.14%0.2501.421.42
Lee GrantGoalkeeperStoke0001.421.421.42
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton0.9518.93%0.160.311.411.41
Oliver BurkeMidfielderWest Brom1.0120.27%0.170.221.41.4
Ali GabrDefenderWest Brom0.355.80%0.0400.391.39
Joel ColemanGoalkeeperHuddersfield0001.361.361.36
Rob GreenGoalkeeperHuddersfield0001.361.361.36
Erdal RakipMidfielderCrystal Palace0.8717.37%0.10.361.331.33
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace0.8116.18%0.10.361.271.27
Jason LokiloMidfielderCrystal Palace0.7815.69%0.10.361.241.24
Emerson HyndmanMidfielderBournemouth0.7715.38%0.070.41.241.24
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke0.7815.58%0.090.351.221.22
Maarten StekelenburgGoalkeeperEverton0001.221.221.22
Joel RoblesGoalkeeperEverton0001.221.221.22
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom0.8516.90%0.120.221.181.18
Ibrahim AfellayMidfielderStoke0.713.95%0.070.351.121.12
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield0.9122.82%0.1601.081.08
Danny WilliamsMidfielderHuddersfield0.5410.74%0.050.340.930.93
Stefano OkakaForwardWatford0.7619.11%0.1300.890.89
Boaz MyhillGoalkeeperWest Brom0000.890.890.89
Alex PalmerGoalkeeperWest Brom0000.890.890.89
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom0.5911.89%0.060.220.870.87
Jerome SinclairForwardWatford0.7218.00%0.1100.830.83
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield0.458.96%0.030.340.820.82
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford0.447.39%0.040.30.790.79
Dodi LukebakioMidfielderWatford0.713.98%0.0800.780.78
Jonathan HoggMidfielderHuddersfield0.397.83%0.030.340.760.76
Beni BaningimeMidfielderEverton0.428.31%0.030.310.750.75
Molla WagueDefenderWatford0.376.12%0.040.30.710.71
Younes KaboulDefenderWatford0.335.45%0.040.30.670.67
Marvin ZeegelaarDefenderWatford0.284.59%0.020.30.60.6
Ramiro Funes MoriDefenderEverton0.457.57%0.0300.480.48
Daniel BachmannGoalkeeperWatford0000.30.30.3
Orestis KarnezisGoalkeeperWatford0000.30.30.3
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