Christmas has been hectic. Between the socialising, the fixture congestion and life the blog has been missing a few posts due to the lack of time we’ve had and we all apologise for it.
This week is a special week though as it is the first of the double game weeks. This means oddly enough we get a side with an implied probability of over 100% for a clean sheet. Yes, this makes no sense. But we’ve decided for all intents and purposes to add the probabilities of the two matches to one another so that we can give the implied points for both games. With Spurs having 2 fixtures at home against Swansea and West Ham they were likely to keep clean sheets in both fixtures and have a 109.63% chance of keeping a clean sheet. (Yes I know this makes no sense) The reality is that they have a 54.815% average chance of keeping a clean sheet in both, which gives them an implied 4.39 points for their defensive players.
Outside of Spurs, United, Man City, and Liverpool are all likely contenders to keep a clean sheet, with Brighton, Southampton and Leicester all being over 40% also to keep a clean sheet. It would be a good idea to swap your Arsenal or Chelsea defenders out of this game week for Spurs defenders due to the low likelihoods of a clean sheet due to them facing off.
|Team||Implied Probability||Average Odds||Max Odds||Exp. Points|