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OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 19 Preview #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. We have been doing this since game week one and have shared with you our progress and regression thus far. This is not a wildcard XI, or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. Currently, we’re 282,872th in the world and aim to be top 1% by the end of the season with the help of the bookies. To view the team click the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

Well considering last week only 9 of our players returned points we still got a great score of 67 moving up to 282,872th in the world. Our points expectancy last week was 55.34. The transfer from Jesus to Lukaku paid off instantly which was nice to see. This week it was all about a defensive transfer with Ward being out injured, Maguire’s fixtures looking awful and Mbemba being like my father, absent. A transfer really was needed.

From looking at the expected points this week and future fixtures doubling up Manchester City defenders was considered until we realised Kompany was a crock, the full backs are an OOP midfielder and overpriced, and we already have Otamendi. From there we looked at a Spurs defender and still felt hurt by Davison Sanchez’s red card, but with Vertongen and Sanchez nailed on starters and both expected to get 4.65 points they were considered alongside Phil Jones, 4.10 points, from Manchester United.

At first the consideration was that we needed a Spurs defender thanks to their fixtures and then compared them to United’s:

Spurs: Burnley (A), Southampton (H), Swansea (A), West Ham (H) and Everton (H)

United: Leicester (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (H), Everton (A) and Stoke (H)

Both fixtures were tasty but the expectancy of United keeping a clean sheet over their next 5 fixtures was more likely even if Spurs were more likely this week. The main thing which made the decision easier was that Spurs were to blank in gameweek 21. A fixture where United play against Southampton at home in. With this being taken into consideration we then had to look at game week 22, Where Spurs play twice while United play away to Everton. The move from Maguire to Jones while keeping some money in the bank allows for us to move from Jones to Sanchez (the heathen) or Vertongen with ease for Spurs’ double game week against West Ham and Swansea.

So our one transfer this week is Jones in for Maguire, an improvement of 0.73 points. Ward stays even though he was out and his price is dropping, but with fixtures against Manchester United and Spurs he was never likely to start for us, and he is expected to be back for Burnley’s fixture to Huddersfield, a fixture where he could very well get a clean sheet. Mbemba however unlikely he is to start could get a fixture as Benitez rotates a lot. We start Abraham over Loftus-Cheek due to Zaha already being included in the starting XI and there being better coverage in having players from different teams.

This week our point expectancy is 56.17.

Capture

Thibaut Courtois – Expected Points 3.88

Nicolas Otamendi – Expected Points 5.58

Phil Jones – Expected Points 4.1

Christian Kabasele – Expected Points 4.02

Sadio Mane – Expected Points 4.2

Eden Hazard (VC)  – Expected Points 5.38

Raheem Sterling (C) – Expected Points 12.52

Wilfried Zaha – Expected Points 4.33

Roberto Firmino – Expected Points 3.87

Romelu Lukaku – Expected Points 4.54

Tammy Abraham – Expected Points 3.75

Bench:

Rob Elliot – Expected Points 3.07

Ruben Loftus-Cheek – Expected Points 3.77

Chancel Mbemba – Expected Points 1.48

Stephen Ward – Expected Points 3.11(INJURED)

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