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Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 16 #FPL

In game week 16 two of the biggest local derbies take place with Man United hosting Manchester City and West Ham hosting Chelsea. Liverpool also host Everton. It’s unknown who’ll come out on top in the derbies. Well… definitely not Everton in theirs anyway. One thing is certain though, I’ll be absolutely hammered on Sunday – Hurrah for booking Monday off!

It’s Spurs who top this weeks clean sheet table with a 53.13% chance. A lot of tough fixtures this week so the percentages are quite low.

Team NamePercentage ChanceAverage OddsMax Odds
Spurs53.13%1.881.91
Liverpool48.78%2.052.1
Chelsea48.19%2.082.15
Crystal Palace40.49%2.472.5
Huddersfield39.80%2.512.55
Swansea37.88%2.642.7
Brighton37.20%2.692.75
Arsenal36.44%2.742.8
Burnley35.97%2.782.8
West Brom34.77%2.883
Man City33.42%2.993.1
Newcastle32.57%3.073.25
Watford31.55%3.173.3
Leicester29.85%3.353.4
Bournemouth25.40%3.944
Manchester United23.46%4.264.33
Southampton20.83%4.85
West Ham16.95%5.96
Everton9.71%10.311
Stoke9.71%10.311

DOS

Spurs this week are the most likely side to keep a clean sheet. They have a 53.13% chance of keeping Stoke at bay. With Davison Sanchez out suspended for 3 fixtures and Alderweireld‘s hamstring injury being more serious than first though Eric Dier will be expected to drop deeper beside Vertonghen. Spurs were expected to perform well over the last couple of fixtures but have failed to do so. With rotation, injuries and bad form Spurs defenders are looking a lot less attractive than this time 3 game weeks ago.

It can only get better for Moyes right? Well no. After losing against City they now come up against Chelsea. One positive from their fixture against Man City was that Adrian played phenomenally in the absence of Joe Hart. One negative is that Joe Hart will be recalled. Classic Moyes that. Chelsea have been on a good run of form recently and it’ll be expected that they go out and win. Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four Premier League away games, it wasn’t all that surprising that Liverpool scored against them though. They have a 48.19% chance of keeping another clean sheet against a poor West Ham side. Returning Victor Moses could have another good week after his offensive exploits last week. David Luiz though is likely to still be out with his fabled knee injury.

Crystal Palace must be getting a nosebleed being so high up the clean sheet table. They have a 40.49% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Bournemouth travel to Selhurst Park this Saturday, they’ve only managed to score 4 goals away from home this season. A big game for both clubs coming up to midway in the season. With just 5 points just separating the teams I’m expecting a tight game as neither can afford to lose. Speroni was drafted in last minute last week due to an injury to Hennessey. After his heroic performance you would be crazy to think he wouldn’t keep his starting position. With Sahko scaring the shite out of opposition attackers another solid performance is expected from Palace. 

DONTS

The two Manchester sides face off this weekend and it’s hard to see either team keeping a clean sheet. Manchester City have conceded in their last 3 premier league games. Manchester United have conceded in their last 2 premier league games and it’s tough to see either of them keep a clean sheet this week. Manchester City do have the more likely chance of keeping a clean sheet at 33.42%, this is likely due to well, them being better. Manchester United, on the other hand, have just a 23.46% chance. Their lowest of the season. Phil Jones is expected to be fit for the fixture and Kompany is set to return in what will be known as the battle of the injury.

Everton are unlikely to keep a clean sheet in game week 16 despite keeping 2 in their most recent fixtures. Everton’s record is atrocious in Anfield and many will be expecting Liverpool to score for fun. They have just a 9.71% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Liverpool have only failed two score twice in the last 10 years playing Everton in Anfield. It’s no surprise Everton have such a low chance of stopping them. Big Sam doesn’t play by the rules though, the dodgy bastard.

Stoke City are without their starting keeper Jack Butland as he still struggles with injury. Stoke travel to Wembley stadium where they take on an out of form Spurs side. Many will see this as Kane‘s last chance to score before transferring him out of their team due to so many blanks. Stoke have also a 9.71% chance of keeping a clean sheet. The bookies clearly believe that both Everton and Stoke are equally as shit at defending. If I was a betting man I’d argue Liverpool are more likely to score than Spurs on current form.

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