Clean Sheets Featured

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 14 #FPL

I guess you’re wondering why this post is out so early? I have some news for you! Game week 14 starts on Tuesday! With a midweek fixture making FPL manager’s lives more difficult. Blogger’s weekend’s shorter, and rotation likely to occur for many Premier League sides. What is normally suggested for periods such as this is to get 15 fit players on your side to ensure you will have 11 players available should the dreaded peptational (yes that is an awful pun on rotational) policy happen. One thing to account for is that this week is a rarity. Three sides are under 10% likely to keep a clean sheet! With the total expected clean sheets being 6.42 for game week 14.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Chelsea61.73%1.621.672.47
Arsenal57.80%1.731.82.31
Man City54.50%1.841.912.18
Bournemouth41.62%2.42.451.66
Manchester United41.54%2.412.451.66
West Brom41.11%2.432.51.64
Liverpool38.35%2.612.71.53
Spurs38.02%2.632.71.52
Brighton37.42%2.672.751.5
Everton36.36%2.752.81.45
Crystal Palace33.33%33.11.33
Newcastle31.87%3.143.251.27
West Ham27.68%3.613.751.11
Burnley25.56%3.9141.02
Leicester19.05%5.255.50.76
Watford18.60%5.385.50.74
Stoke14.55%6.8870.58
Swansea8.79%11.38120.35
Huddersfield8.16%12.25130.33
Southampton6.45%15.5180.26

DO’S

Chelsea are the only team above 60% this week as they have a 61.73% chance of keeping a clean sheet. With Chelsea hosting Swansea at Stamford Bridge. It is expected that Antonio Conte’s men will dominate the relegation-threatened side. Swansea will be without Tammy Abraham, so it looks like Bony will start. The Ivorian has failed to score in over a year in club football, with his last goal coming last Halloween. Spooky. Chelsea conceded last week against Liverpool as expected. So let’s hope the bookies get it right again this week and they keep a clean sheet. With the might of Gary Cahill, Thibault Courtois and Cesar Azpilicueta coming up against Jordan Ayew and Wilfried Bony, it wouldn’t be a bad bet to think Chelsea would keep a clean sheet.

If you mention the phrase ‘conspiracy theory’ to Sean Dyche you might get a surprise. You can slowly see the Burnley manager’s skin tone turn from pasty white to red tomato. In the last 3 head to head games, Arsenal have scored in the 90+ minute to beat them. With a soft penalty being given the latest to save Arsene’s arse. Arsenal also managed to keep a clean sheet against Burnley, and this gameweek they have a 57.80% chance of keeping another. Arsenal will take on Huddersfield this week. Which will be another tough game for Terriers after losing to Manchester City in a hard fought game at home. With Koscielny back to the form in which many said that he was one of the best defenders in the League, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who would think that Arsenal will concede against this Huddersfield side.

An own goal by Otamendi was a bad goal for a host of FPL managers who have the Argentinian in their side. It was also a bad goal for Manchester City to concede, with poor defending from the corner! In a game where many expected City to keep a  clean sheet, they failed to do so against Huddersfield. As Huddersfield has been a side which have struggled to score for a number of weeks now. This week they take on Southampton, a team who struggled for goals until they faced Everton. With Charlie Austin looking to regain the form which once saw him regarded at the Jamie Vardy of the Premiership – before Jamie Vardy was the Jamie Vardy of the Premiership. City could come up against a spirited Southampton side. In spite of the saints scoring four in their most recent fixture, bookies don’t have a short-term memory, Manchester City have a 54.50% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

DONT’S

If Everton managed to score a goal against Southampton, I have no doubts that Manchester City will. While City were far from their best against Huddersfield they still came out of the fixture with all 3 points. All due to a late goal from Raheem Sterling. With rotation likely for City you would assume Southampton may face a weakened side. A side which includes Bernardo Silva, Gabriel Jesus, Ilkay Gundogan. Doesn’t sound that much weaker, does it? Southampton have just a 6.45% chance of stopping Pep’s men.

A clean sheet last week for Swansea against Bournemouth, unfortunately for them this week they face Chelsea. With Tammy Abraham out of contention for a start due to playing against his parent club the Welsh side may struggle to pin back Chelsea at all during the match. Swansea have just an 8.79% chance of a clean sheet. In the form that Alvaro Morata is in, you could suggest it should be even lower.

I’ll be putting Everton on this list every week until they keep a clean sheet. Everton are truly awful at the moment. And I say that as a lifelong Everton fan. David Unsworth looks a broken man as of late and with him at the helm, the Toffees may well struggle to stay up this season. Everton conceded 4 against Southampton last week. A side which only managed to score 9 goals in their opening 12 fixtures. This week Everton face West Ham and have a 36.36% chance of a clean sheet. If I was a betting man I’d say Everton’s probability should be much much lower.

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