Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 11 #FPL

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Well, this looks to be a goal heavy week, with only 2 sides more likely to keep a clean sheet than not. Last week 6 sides kept a clean sheet, with only Stoke being a major surprise. The total expected clean sheets this week is 6.34 which is slightly more than last week surprisingly. With Spurs looking most likely to BANG you to the top of your table with a clean sheet, we analyse this week’s clean sheet likelihoods.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Tottenham53.33%1.881.912.13
Southampton52.08%1.921.952.08
Swansea41.71%2.42.451.67
Huddersfield40.20%2.492.61.61
Newcastle39.41%2.542.651.58
West Brom37.31%2.682.751.49
Everton37.14%2.692.751.49
Chelsea36.36%2.752.751.45
Liverpool35.97%2.7831.44
Man City34.36%2.9131.37
Brighton31.87%3.143.251.27
Man Utd31.50%3.183.31.26
Stoke30.77%3.253.31.23
Leicester28.57%3.53.61.14
Watford25.00%44.21
Bournemouth23.15%4.324.50.93
Burnley22.31%4.484.60.89
West Ham16.00%6.256.50.64
Arsenal10.53%9.5100.42
Crystal Palace9.41%10.63120.38

DOS

Southampton will be without their signing of the summer, Mario Lemima, who signed from Juventus. The cultured midfielder was ruled out of last week’s 1-1 draw with Brighton due to an ankle injury received in training. Despite this news, it should be good for them defensively as Oriol Romeu should start for the saints. With Virgin van Dijk back in the fold Southampton could once again be a force to be reckoned with at home. The Saints are borderline top 6 currently, imagine where they would be if their strikers weren’t impotent and incompetent in front of goal. Southampton have a 52.08% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Burnley.

Tottenham are the most likely side to keep a clean sheet with a 53.33% chance this game week. Spurs come into this fixture after a tough game against Real Madrid in which they won 3-1. With Danny Rose almost back to fitness, he could start in place of Ben Davies. I could see quite a lot of rotation in the Spurs backline for this fixture, with only Lloris being the ‘nailed on starter’ in my mind. Spurs picked up some injuries in the game against Madrid too.

Huddersfield have been one of the surprise packages for many this season already keeping 4 clean sheets and managing to beat Man United. The Terriers have been solid and Lossl and Zanka will be some of the signings of the season should Huddersfield stay up. With their physicality and height being one of their key attributes defensively. They come up against a West Brom side which have kept their Premier League status for the last few years on the same sort of qualities. They are a chance or keeping a clean sheet in a fixture you’d not expect to be shown first on match or the day. Huddersfield’s giants have an almost giant 40.20% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

DO NOTS

Crystal Palace comes up against a Spurs side which failed to score against Manchester United last weekend but 3 past an imperious Real Madrid side. The Eagles have a small glimmer of hope given the form of Wilfried Zaha, but unfortunately, they do not have the same sort of quality defenders as attackers. The London side are only a 9.41% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Given the fact they haven’t kept a clean sheet this season they should perhaps be even less likely to keep a clean sheet against the Harry Kane side. 

Arsenal are only a 10.53% chance of keeping a clean sheet against a City side which have kept the second most amount of clean sheets in the league this season. City have been magisterial and erotic in front of goal with their foreplay being something that would turn on Theresa May. With players like Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus not even being considered nailed on starters it goes to show the quality of this City side. I’ll go out on a limb here and say Monreal won’t score. In fact, I will eat a bowl of corn flakes with Pepsi Max if he does. How about that son. Kolasinac, Cech and the rest are all best off not being near your starting XI either.

West Ham are awful. Just when Bilic’s side had seemingly held onto the win against Palace last weekend Antonio crossed to 4 players on the 95th minute instead of going to the corner and shielding it to waste time. There are so many things wrong with this. While I think Antonio has gotten the brunt of the criticism, why were 4 players supporting him that late on and attacking for no reason? They are as poor tactically as they are defensively, which is a mean feat. They come up against a Liverpool side which were expected to heavily rotate against an awful Maribor side but did not. Zabaleta, Joe Hart, Jose Fonte are nothing but a bunch of names currently and should be as far away from your team for the foreseeable future. The Hammers have just a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet at home. It should probably be less with the London side conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game. They haven’t even played City yet.

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