Goalscorer Probabilities – Gameweek 10 – Odds On #FPL

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There are some things which happen in Fantasy Premier League which just can’t be explained. Pep’s rotation policy, Richarlison’s price, Harry Kane once being 5.5m, Shano telling me he’ll write the text of the articles if I do the stats, and this week’s most expected goalscorer being that of Alexandre Lacazette at 63.51%, slightly edging that of the Man City duo Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Alexandre LacazetteForwardArsenal63.51%1.571.672.54
Sergio AgueroForwardMan City63.36%1.581.672.53
Gabriel JesusForwardMan City62.13%1.611.672.49
Olivier GiroudForwardArsenal59.65%1.681.752.39
Alexis SanchezMidfielderArsenal58.87%1.71.782.94
Alvaro MorataForwardChelsea54.97%1.821.92.2
Chuba AkpomForwardArsenal54.13%1.851.92.17
Daniel SturridgeForwardLiverpool53.74%1.8622.15
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool53.06%1.8822.12
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool50.86%1.972.052.54
Eddie NketiahForwardArsenal49.75%2.012.041.99
Michy BatshuayiForwardChelsea49.28%2.032.151.97
Danny WelbeckForwardArsenal49.14%2.042.051.97
Philippe CoutinhoMidfielderLiverpool48.35%2.072.252.42
Theo WalcottMidfielderArsenal47.19%2.122.252.36
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool47.15%2.122.251.89
Romelu LukakuForwardManchester United46.41%2.152.381.86
Leroy SaneMidfielderMan City45.68%2.192.42.28
Jamie VardyForwardLeicester45.01%2.222.41.8
Harry KaneForwardSpurs44.39%2.252.51.78
Reiss NelsonMidfielderArsenal42.24%2.372.42.11
Raheem SterlingMidfielderMan City41.60%2.42.632.08
Eden HazardMidfielderChelsea41.58%2.412.72.08
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool39.84%2.512.851.99
Bernardo SilvaMidfielderMan City39.78%2.512.951.99
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford38.66%2.592.81.55
Andre GrayForwardWatford38.19%2.622.881.53
Chris WoodForwardBurnley38.13%2.622.951.53
Alex IwobiMidfielderArsenal37.65%2.6631.88
Ahmed MusaMidfielderLeicester36.58%2.732.81.83
Mesut OzilMidfielderArsenal36.33%2.753.31.82
Kelechi IheanachoForwardLeicester36.29%2.763.11.45
Fernando LlorenteForwardSpurs35.58%2.813.251.42
RicharlisonMidfielderWatford35.47%2.823.051.77
Wilfried ZahaMidfielderCrystal Palace35.42%2.823.31.77
JoseluForwardNewcastle35.14%2.8531.41
Lazar MarkovicMidfielderLiverpool35.09%2.852.851.75
Dwight GayleForwardNewcastle34.88%2.873.121.4
Sam VokesForwardBurnley34.87%2.873.31.39
Islam SlimaniForwardLeicester34.85%2.873.21.39
Jeff Reine-AdelaideMidfielderArsenal34.72%2.882.91.74
Manolo GabbiadiniForwardSouthampton34.38%2.913.21.38
PedroMidfielderChelsea34.31%2.923.251.72
Aaron RamseyMidfielderArsenal34.07%2.943.251.7
Leonardo UlloaForwardLeicester33.86%2.953.51.35
Ovie EjariaMidfielderLiverpool33.67%2.9731.68
Shinji OkazakiForwardLeicester33.66%2.973.41.35
Javier HernandezForwardWest Ham33.51%2.983.41.34
Aleksandar MitrovicForwardNewcastle33.47%2.993.451.34
Isaac SuccessMidfielderWatford33.11%3.023.11.66
Kevin De BruyneMidfielderMan City32.94%3.043.51.65
Anthony MartialMidfielderManchester United32.91%3.043.751.65
Andy CarrollForwardWest Ham32.35%3.093.41.29
Charlie AustinForwardSouthampton32.31%3.13.51.29
Marcus RashfordForwardManchester United32.00%3.123.551.28
WillianMidfielderChelsea31.70%3.153.61.59
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton31.25%3.23.61.25
Jermain DefoeForwardBournemouth30.93%3.233.51.24
Oleksandr ZinchenkoMidfielderMan City30.89%3.243.351.54
Ashley BarnesForwardBurnley30.59%3.273.751.22
Shane LongForwardSouthampton30.19%3.313.751.21
Bakary SakoMidfielderCrystal Palace30.10%3.323.651.5
Freddie LadapoForwardCrystal Palace29.98%3.343.81.2
Diafra SakhoForwardWest Ham29.95%3.343.61.2
Glenn MurrayForwardBrighton29.79%3.363.751.19
Oumar NiasseForwardEverton29.79%3.363.71.19
Joe WillockForwardArsenal29.73%3.363.41.19
Sandro RamirezForwardEverton29.26%3.423.81.17
Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingMidfielderStoke29.13%3.433.751.46
Tomer HemedForwardBrighton29.12%3.433.751.16
Peter CrouchForwardStoke28.83%3.473.751.15
Charly MusondaMidfielderChelsea28.71%3.484.21.44
Marko GrujicMidfielderLiverpool28.65%3.493.91.43
Ilkay GundoganMidfielderMan City28.55%3.54.11.43
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke28.48%3.513.951.14
Callum WilsonForwardBournemouth28.35%3.5341.13
Antonio MartinezForwardWest Ham28.30%3.533.551.13
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton28.14%3.553.951.13
Rodriguez JeseMidfielderStoke27.96%3.583.81.4
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth27.81%3.64.51.11
Phil FodenMidfielderMan City27.78%3.63.651.39
Michail AntonioMidfielderWest Ham27.69%3.614.11.38
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool27.52%3.634.51.65
Mame Biram DioufForwardStoke27.51%3.644.331.1
David SilvaMidfielderMan City27.36%3.654.51.37
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderLiverpool27.33%3.664.51.37
Dele AlliMidfielderSpurs26.97%3.714.21.35
Riyad MahrezMidfielderLeicester26.94%3.714.21.35
Benik AfobeForwardBournemouth26.93%3.714.51.08
Henrikh MkhitaryanMidfielderManchester United26.60%3.764.331.33
Ayoze PerezForwardNewcastle26.52%3.774.21.06
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace26.24%3.814.81.31
Andre AyewMidfielderWest Ham25.91%3.864.21.3
Son Heung-MinMidfielderSpurs25.85%3.874.21.29
Manuel LanziniMidfielderWest Ham25.69%3.894.41.28
Tammy AbrahamForwardSwansea25.35%3.9551.01
Marko ArnautovicMidfielderWest Ham25.22%3.974.51.26
Matt RitchieMidfielderNewcastle25.05%3.994.51.25
Dusan TadicMidfielderSouthampton25.04%3.994.61.25
Ruben Loftus-CheekMidfielderCrystal Palace24.95%4.014.51.25
Jack WilshereMidfielderArsenal24.88%4.025.51.24
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton24.74%4.044.51.24
Yaya ToureMidfielderMan City24.50%4.085.51.22
Sullay KaikaiMidfielderCrystal Palace24.35%4.114.331.22
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth24.34%4.114.50.97
Cesc FabregasMidfielderChelsea24.31%4.114.91.22
Steve MounieForwardHuddersfield24.10%4.1550.96
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom24.02%4.1650.96
Sofiane BoufalMidfielderSouthampton23.97%4.174.91.2
Wilfried BonyForwardSwansea23.95%4.1850.96
Sam BaldockForwardBrighton23.87%4.194.750.95
Nathan RedmondMidfielderSouthampton23.85%4.1951.19
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford23.73%4.2151.19
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool23.68%4.225.51.18
Jacob MurphyMidfielderNewcastle23.65%4.234.51.18
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford23.39%4.285.61.17
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford23.14%4.325.61.16
Jay RodriguezForwardWest Brom23.12%4.3250.92
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool23.09%4.335.251.15
Kevin MirallasMidfielderEverton23.00%4.3551.15
Andre CarrilloMidfielderSwansea22.99%4.354.91.15
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke22.91%4.3751.15
Juan MataMidfielderManchester United22.55%4.435.251.13
Jesse LingardMidfielderManchester United22.49%4.4551.12
Anthony KnockaertMidfielderBrighton22.46%4.4551.12
Pascal GrossMidfielderBrighton22.25%4.495.81.11
Christian AtsuMidfielderNewcastle22.21%4.55.251.11
Isaiah BrownMidfielderBrighton22.02%4.545.61.1
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom21.88%4.576.50.88
Ademola LookmanMidfielderEverton21.87%4.575.81.09
Jose IzquierdoMidfielderBrighton21.79%4.5951.09
Laurent DepoitreForwardHuddersfield21.74%4.660.87
Robbie BradyMidfielderBurnley21.34%4.695.81.07
Marcos AlonsoDefenderChelsea21.31%4.695.51.28
Courtney Baker-RichardsonForwardSwansea21.22%4.714.750.85
Junior StanislasMidfielderBournemouth21.22%4.7161.06
Josh Da SilvaForwardArsenal20.91%4.7850.84
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace20.69%4.836.251.03
Jeff HendrickMidfielderBurnley20.65%4.847.51.03
Nikola VlasicMidfielderEverton20.64%4.856.51.03
Sead HaksabanovicMidfielderBurnley20.62%4.855.31.03
Demarai GrayMidfielderLeicester20.26%4.9461.01
Erik LamelaMidfielderSpurs20.18%4.9561.01
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke20.18%4.9661.01
James Ward-ProwseMidfielderSouthampton20.14%4.9761.01
Hamza ChoudhuryMidfielderLeicester19.95%5.015.251
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton19.92%5.0261
Thibaud VerlindenMidfielderStoke19.88%5.035.250.99
Jordan AyewForwardSwansea19.78%5.066.10.79
Granit XhakaMidfielderArsenal19.58%5.1170.98
Mohamed DiameMidfielderNewcastle19.56%5.115.80.98
Christian EriksenMidfielderSpurs19.49%5.136.10.97
Vicente IborraMidfielderLeicester19.40%5.1560.97
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield19.39%5.1670.78
Tom InceMidfielderHuddersfield19.25%5.270.96
Solly MarchMidfielderBrighton19.21%5.270.96
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford19.18%5.2160.96
Scott ArfieldMidfielderBurnley19.04%5.256.50.95
Jamie MurphyMidfielderBrighton19.04%5.256.50.95
Soufyan AhannachMidfielderBrighton18.99%5.275.50.95
Johann Berg GudmundssonMidfielderBurnley18.67%5.366.50.93
Des HutchinsonMidfielderBrighton18.52%5.45.60.93
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke18.45%5.426.50.92
Oliver McBurnieForwardSwansea18.39%5.445.50.74
Elias KachungaMidfielderHuddersfield18.14%5.5170.91
Marc AlbrightonMidfielderLeicester18.10%5.5360.9
Henri SaivetMidfielderNewcastle18.06%5.545.750.9
Levi LumekaMidfielderCrystal Palace18.05%5.546.250.9
KenedyMidfielderEverton17.81%5.616.50.89
Nacer ChadliMidfielderWest Brom17.62%5.6870.88
Marouane FellainiMidfielderManchester United17.54%5.76.50.88
Andy KingMidfielderLeicester17.42%5.746.750.87
Oliver BurkeMidfielderWest Brom17.41%5.7570.87
Abdelhamid SabiriMidfielderHuddersfield17.28%5.7980.86
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth17.22%5.817.50.86
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace17.19%5.8280.86
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom17.17%5.8380.86
Davy PropperMidfielderBrighton16.96%5.96.50.85
Daniel DrinkwaterMidfielderChelsea16.95%5.960.85
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool16.88%5.927.51.01
Georges-Kevin NkoudouMidfielderSpurs16.84%5.9470.84
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace16.46%6.087.50.82
Aaron LennonMidfielderEverton16.45%6.0870.82
Ibrahim AfellayMidfielderStoke16.42%6.097.50.82
Scott McTominayMidfielderManchester United16.42%6.0970.82
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool16.40%6.190.82
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke16.39%6.180.82
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom16.39%6.19.50.82
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace16.27%6.1570.81
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace16.18%6.187.50.97
Steven DavisMidfielderSouthampton16.18%6.187.50.81
Mark NobleMidfielderWest Ham16.11%6.2170.81
Leroy FerMidfielderSwansea15.97%6.268.50.8
Jason PuncheonMidfielderCrystal Palace15.96%6.277.50.8
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace15.90%6.297.50.95
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth15.69%6.387.50.78
Jonjo ShelveyMidfielderNewcastle15.39%6.580.77
Cheikhou KouyateMidfielderWest Ham15.38%6.58.50.77
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton15.33%6.528.50.77
Jordon MutchMidfielderCrystal Palace15.22%6.577.50.76
FernandinhoMidfielderMan City15.17%6.5990.76
Will HughesMidfielderWatford15.04%6.657.50.75
Kyle ScottMidfielderChelsea14.84%6.7480.74
Tiemoue BakayokoMidfielderChelsea14.62%6.8480.73
Steven DefourMidfielderBurnley14.55%6.8880.73
Edimilson FernandesMidfielderWest Ham14.45%6.927.50.72
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth14.43%6.9390.72
Ben WatsonMidfielderWatford14.29%78.50.71
Steve SidwellMidfielderBrighton14.29%770.71
Ander HerreraMidfielderManchester United14.17%7.068.50.71
Rolando AaronsMidfielderNewcastle14.16%7.067.50.71
Sead KolasinacDefenderArsenal14.10%7.09100.85
Joe LolleyMidfielderHuddersfield14.08%7.180.7
Luciano NarsinghMidfielderSwansea13.97%7.1610.50.7
Wayne RoutledgeMidfielderSwansea13.95%7.17100.7
James MorrisonMidfielderWest Brom13.92%7.1890.7
Fabian DelphMidfielderMan City13.92%7.18100.7
Nathan DyerMidfielderSwansea13.84%7.23100.69
Mohamed ElnenyMidfielderArsenal13.66%7.32100.68
Mikel MerinoMidfielderNewcastle13.63%7.3490.68
Ainsley Maitland-NilesMidfielderArsenal13.52%7.4100.68
Sam McQueenDefenderSouthampton13.39%7.47110.8
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield13.37%7.48100.67
Laurent KoscielnyDefenderArsenal13.37%7.48100.8
Emerson HyndmanMidfielderBournemouth13.33%7.57.50.67
Tosin AdarabioyoDefenderMan City12.70%7.8880.76
Francis CoquelinMidfielderArsenal12.66%7.9100.63
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom12.64%7.91120.63
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford12.59%7.949.50.76
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton12.59%7.949.50.76
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth12.57%7.95100.63
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield12.55%7.97100.63
Scott DannDefenderCrystal Palace12.39%8.079.50.74
Mario LeminaMidfielderSouthampton12.32%8.11100.62
Gary CahillDefenderChelsea12.22%8.189.50.73
Mesa RoqueMidfielderSwansea12.00%8.338.50.6
Moussa SissokoMidfielderSpurs11.98%8.35100.6
Mathieu DebuchyDefenderArsenal11.94%8.388.50.72
Wilfred NdidiMidfielderLeicester11.88%8.42110.59
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool11.82%8.46130.71
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth11.73%8.52100.7
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth11.70%8.55100.59
Darren FletcherMidfielderStoke11.67%8.57100.58
Pierre-Emile HojbjergMidfielderSouthampton11.49%8.79.50.57
Jamaal LascellesDefenderNewcastle11.46%8.7310.50.69
Jack CorkMidfielderBurnley11.35%8.81110.57
Dean MarneyMidfielderBurnley11.30%8.8511.50.56
Vincent KompanyDefenderMan City11.27%8.8890.68
David LuizDefenderChelsea11.18%8.94120.67
Ki Sung-yuengMidfielderSwansea11.17%8.9512.50.56
Harry WinksMidfielderSpurs11.14%8.98100.56
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool11.11%9130.67
Hector BellerinDefenderArsenal11.06%9.05130.66
Victor MosesDefenderChelsea11.03%9.07120.66
Per MertesackerDefenderArsenal10.97%9.11130.66
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford10.89%9.18120.65
Sam ClucasMidfielderSwansea10.84%9.23130.54
Josh KnightDefenderLeicester10.81%9.259.50.65
Nicolas OtamendiDefenderMan City10.78%9.27130.65
James McCarthyMidfielderEverton10.74%9.31120.54
Jake Clarke-SalterDefenderChelsea10.67%9.389.50.64
Dale StephensMidfielderBrighton10.65%9.39150.53
Connor MahoneyMidfielderBournemouth10.62%9.42100.53
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton10.58%9.45120.53
Harry MaguireDefenderLeicester10.45%9.57110.63
Virgil van DijkDefenderSouthampton10.23%9.77150.61
Nemanja MaticMidfielderManchester United10.19%9.81110.51
Beram KayalMidfielderBrighton10.18%9.83110.51
Ashley YoungMidfielderManchester United10.18%9.82130.51
Jamie SterryDefenderNewcastle10.13%9.88100.61
Ashley WestwoodMidfielderBurnley10.11%9.89130.51
Nacho MonrealDefenderArsenal10.07%9.93130.6
Oriol RomeuMidfielderSouthampton10.05%9.95150.5
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton10.05%9.95120.6
Jeremy PiedDefenderSouthampton10.00%10110.6
Tom CarrollMidfielderSwansea9.95%10.05130.5
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth9.91%10.09130.5
Davide ZappacostaDefenderChelsea9.90%10.1120.59
Mousa DembeleMidfielderSpurs9.89%10.11130.49
Rob HoldingDefenderArsenal9.84%10.16130.59
Jon FlanaganDefenderLiverpool9.76%10.25110.59
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton9.66%10.35120.48
Shane DuffyDefenderBrighton9.66%10.35150.58
DaniloDefenderMan City9.65%10.36130.58
Pedro ObiangMidfielderWest Ham9.52%10.5160.48
Anthony GeorgiouForwardSpurs9.52%10.5110.38
Ciaran ClarkDefenderNewcastle9.50%10.52130.57
Miguel BritosDefenderWatford9.46%10.57150.57
Isaac HaydenMidfielderNewcastle9.44%10.59190.47
Renato SanchesMidfielderSwansea9.44%10.6130.47
Lewis DunkDefenderBrighton9.42%10.61150.57
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth9.34%10.7170.47
Grzegorz KrychowiakMidfielderWest Brom9.30%10.75190.47
Tashan Oakley-BootheMidfielderSpurs9.30%10.75110.47
Alfie MawsonDefenderSwansea9.30%10.75150.56
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford9.28%10.77170.56
Marvin ZeegelaarDefenderWatford9.27%10.79160.56
Gareth McAuleyDefenderWest Brom9.21%10.86130.55
Muhamed BesicMidfielderEverton9.13%10.95130.46
Jordan WilliamsDefenderLiverpool9.09%11150.55
Christian FuchsDefenderLeicester9.01%11.1150.54
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace8.98%11.14150.54
Maya YoshidaDefenderSouthampton8.94%11.18150.54
John StonesDefenderMan City8.91%11.22150.53
Eric DierMidfielderSpurs8.90%11.24130.44
Kyle WalkerDefenderMan City8.88%11.26150.53
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom8.85%11.3150.44
Nathan AkeDefenderBournemouth8.84%11.32130.53
Adam KingMidfielderSwansea8.79%11.38120.44
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool8.76%11.41150.53
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield8.70%11.5120.43
Andreas ChristensenDefenderChelsea8.68%11.52150.52
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford8.60%11.63120.52
Pape SouareDefenderCrystal Palace8.60%11.63120.52
Eliaquim MangalaDefenderMan City8.54%11.7150.51
Yohan BenalouaneDefenderLeicester8.47%11.8120.51
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom8.44%11.84150.51
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke8.43%11.86170.51
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool8.41%11.89150.5
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth8.33%12120.5
Molla WagueDefenderWatford8.33%12170.5
Uwe HunemeierDefenderBrighton8.30%12.05190.5
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom8.22%12.17130.41
Jayson MolumbyMidfielderBrighton8.22%12.17210.41
Aaron CresswellDefenderWest Ham8.18%12.23170.49
Antonio ValenciaDefenderManchester United8.09%12.36150.49
Jairo RiedewaldDefenderCrystal Palace8.09%12.36170.49
Michael CarrickMidfielderManchester United8.03%12.45150.4
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke8.03%12.45170.48
Daniel AmarteyDefenderLeicester7.87%12.7190.47
Kurt ZoumaDefenderStoke7.77%12.86170.47
Aleksander DragovicDefenderLeicester7.69%13160.46
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth7.69%13150.46
Ben ChilwellDefenderLeicester7.63%13.11190.46
Gareth BarryMidfielderWest Brom7.53%13.29230.38
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield7.46%13.41180.45
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth7.43%13.45150.45
Declan RiceDefenderWest Ham7.41%13.5210.44
James TarkowskiDefenderBurnley7.41%13.5190.44
Stephen WardDefenderBurnley7.38%13.55190.44
Danny RoseDefenderSpurs7.38%13.55170.44
Ryan BertrandDefenderSouthampton7.35%13.61210.44
Serge AurierDefenderSpurs7.33%13.64170.44
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool7.32%13.67190.44
Winston ReidDefenderWest Ham7.28%13.73210.44
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool7.26%13.77190.44
Antonio RudigerDefenderChelsea7.25%13.8170.43
Mike van der HoornDefenderSwansea7.19%13.91210.43
Chris SmallingDefenderManchester United7.16%13.98170.43
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton7.10%14.09190.43
Wes MorganDefenderLeicester7.10%14.09190.43
Florian LejeuneDefenderNewcastle7.09%14.11230.43
Josh TymonDefenderStoke7.07%14.14210.42
Wesley HoedtDefenderSouthampton7.07%14.14210.42
Toby AlderweireldDefenderSpurs7.01%14.26170.42
Scott MaloneDefenderHuddersfield7.01%14.27230.42
Daley BlindDefenderManchester United6.90%14.5170.41
Jay FultonMidfielderSwansea6.82%14.67150.34
Timothy Fosu-MensahDefenderCrystal Palace6.81%14.68210.41
James CollinsDefenderWest Ham6.80%14.7210.41
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom6.77%14.77230.41
Cesar AzpilicuetaDefenderChelsea6.72%14.89180.4
Ben MeeDefenderBurnley6.71%14.91200.4
Kiko FemeniaDefenderWatford6.71%14.9230.4
Phil BardsleyDefenderBurnley6.67%15200.4
Ezequiel SchelottoDefenderBrighton6.66%15.02260.4
Ahmed HegaziDefenderWest Brom6.64%15.05190.4
Axel TuanzebeDefenderManchester United6.62%15.1190.4
Mamadou SakhoDefenderCrystal Palace6.60%15.16260.4
Matt TargettDefenderSouthampton6.56%15.24260.39
Chancel MbembaDefenderNewcastle6.54%15.29230.39
Kevin WimmerDefenderStoke6.53%15.32190.39
Jack StephensDefenderSouthampton6.50%15.38190.39
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke6.49%15.4170.39
Ales MatejuDefenderBrighton6.31%15.86230.38
Kevin LongDefenderBurnley6.31%15.86230.38
Ben DaviesDefenderSpurs6.28%15.93200.38
Connor GoldsonDefenderBrighton6.28%15.93260.38
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace6.22%16.07260.37
Eric BaillyDefenderManchester United6.17%16.21210.37
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield6.13%16.32210.31
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom6.06%16.5230.3
Phil JonesDefenderManchester United6.03%16.6210.36
Markus SuttnerDefenderBrighton6.03%16.59260.36
Jan BednarekDefenderSouthampton6.01%16.64190.36
Kyle Walker-PetersDefenderSpurs6.00%16.67210.36
Victor LindelofDefenderManchester United5.99%16.7210.36
Massadio HaidaraDefenderNewcastle5.95%16.8290.36
Arthur MasuakuDefenderWest Ham5.95%16.82260.36
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace5.91%16.93260.35
Harry SoutarDefenderStoke5.88%17170.35
Charlie TaylorDefenderBurnley5.88%17230.35
Kieran GibbsDefenderWest Brom5.84%17.14510.35
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace5.81%17.21260.35
Matthew LowtonDefenderBurnley5.77%17.32290.35
Jonjoe KennyDefenderEverton5.66%17.68230.34
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton5.64%17.73230.34
Ashley WilliamsDefenderEverton5.62%17.8290.34
Pablo ZabaletaDefenderWest Ham5.61%17.83260.34
Juan FoythDefenderSpurs5.56%18210.33
DeAndre YedlinDefenderNewcastle5.51%18.16340.33
Davinson SanchezDefenderSpurs5.43%18.43260.33
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke5.39%18.55290.32
Jose FonteDefenderWest Ham5.37%18.64340.32
Jonathan HoggMidfielderHuddersfield5.36%18.66210.27
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke5.29%18.92290.32
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth5.26%19190.32
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield5.26%19300.32
Luke ShawDefenderManchester United5.25%19.05230.32
Javier ManquilloDefenderNewcastle5.24%19.1290.31
Sam ByramDefenderWest Ham5.24%19.09340.31
Martin OlssonDefenderSwansea5.24%19.1230.31
Kieran TrippierDefenderSpurs5.17%19.32260.31
Jan VertonghenDefenderSpurs5.15%19.4260.31
Angelo OgbonnaDefenderWest Ham4.90%20.41340.29
Matteo DarmianDefenderManchester United4.88%20.5260.29
Leon BrittonDefenderSwansea4.86%20.59260.29
Cedric SoaresDefenderSouthampton4.80%20.83410.29
Adrian MariappaDefenderWatford4.71%21.23290.28
Liam RoseniorDefenderBrighton4.69%21.32410.28
Danny SimpsonDefenderLeicester4.65%21.5290.28
BrunoDefenderBrighton4.63%21.62260.28
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton4.61%21.68290.28
Erik PietersDefenderStoke4.60%21.75290.28
Angel RangelDefenderSwansea4.59%21.77260.28
Kyle NaughtonDefenderSwansea4.57%21.86290.27
Mathias JorgensenDefenderHuddersfield4.56%21.94260.27
Gaetan BongDefenderBrighton4.38%22.82410.26
Jesus GamezDefenderNewcastle4.32%23.14410.26
Federico FernandezDefenderSwansea4.30%23.27290.26
Martin CranieDefenderHuddersfield3.87%25.86310.23
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth3.86%25.93340.23
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield3.52%28.43340.21
NyomDefenderWest Brom3.51%28.45340.21
Florent HadergjonajDefenderHuddersfield3.40%29.38340.2

Forwards

Jamie Vardy is having a party, it’s for Halloween, and for Craig Shakespeare getting sacked. The English pace demon will be lining up under Claude Puel who was known for anything but attacking football while at Southampton. The defensive nature of the Frenchman could suit Vardy in a counter-attacking style which suited the Foxes so much 2 seasons ago, they did something very much against the odds. Remember it?

Gabriel Jesus only played 85 minutes midweek in the cup game, whilst Sergio Aguero played 120 minutes. Logic would make people think that Aguero will be rested this weekend and Jesus will play. Yet nobody can comfortably captain either/or due to Pep Lottery. Bookies don’t take into account the likelihood of a player to be benched, so both are priced on the expectancy that they will play. Jesus is 62.13% chance of scoring, while Aguero is a 63.36% chance of scoring, personally, I think Jesus is more likely to start so I’d pick him over Aguero.

45.68%. Don’t pick Chuba. Chuba is a fine example of a side with a high goal expectancy giving attacking players much higher implied probabilities of scoring. The Arsenal backup striker is a 54.13% chance of scoring, with a 0% of starting. I figured I’d explain that, rather than people questioning his high probability again.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Alexandre LacazetteForwardArsenal63.51%1.571.672.54
Sergio AgueroForwardMan City63.36%1.581.672.53
Gabriel JesusForwardMan City62.13%1.611.672.49
Olivier GiroudForwardArsenal59.65%1.681.752.39
Alvaro MorataForwardChelsea54.97%1.821.92.2
Chuba AkpomForwardArsenal54.13%1.851.92.17
Daniel SturridgeForwardLiverpool53.74%1.8622.15
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool53.06%1.8822.12
Eddie NketiahForwardArsenal49.75%2.012.041.99
Danny WelbeckForwardArsenal49.14%2.042.051.97
Michy BatshuayiForwardChelsea49.28%2.032.151.97
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool47.15%2.122.251.89
Romelu LukakuForwardManchester United46.41%2.152.381.86
Jamie VardyForwardLeicester45.01%2.222.41.8
Harry KaneForwardSpurs44.39%2.252.51.78
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford38.66%2.592.81.55
Andre GrayForwardWatford38.19%2.622.881.53
Chris WoodForwardBurnley38.13%2.622.951.53
Kelechi IheanachoForwardLeicester36.29%2.763.11.45
Fernando LlorenteForwardSpurs35.58%2.813.251.42
JoseluForwardNewcastle35.14%2.8531.41
Dwight GayleForwardNewcastle34.88%2.873.121.4
Islam SlimaniForwardLeicester34.85%2.873.21.39
Sam VokesForwardBurnley34.87%2.873.31.39
Manolo GabbiadiniForwardSouthampton34.38%2.913.21.38
Shinji OkazakiForwardLeicester33.66%2.973.41.35
Leonardo UlloaForwardLeicester33.86%2.953.51.35
Javier HernandezForwardWest Ham33.51%2.983.41.34
Aleksandar MitrovicForwardNewcastle33.47%2.993.451.34
Andy CarrollForwardWest Ham32.35%3.093.41.29
Charlie AustinForwardSouthampton32.31%3.13.51.29
Marcus RashfordForwardManchester United32.00%3.123.551.28
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton31.25%3.23.61.25
Jermain DefoeForwardBournemouth30.93%3.233.51.24
Ashley BarnesForwardBurnley30.59%3.273.751.22
Shane LongForwardSouthampton30.19%3.313.751.21
Diafra SakhoForwardWest Ham29.95%3.343.61.2
Freddie LadapoForwardCrystal Palace29.98%3.343.81.2
Joe WillockForwardArsenal29.73%3.363.41.19
Glenn MurrayForwardBrighton29.79%3.363.751.19
Oumar NiasseForwardEverton29.79%3.363.71.19
Sandro RamirezForwardEverton29.26%3.423.81.17
Tomer HemedForwardBrighton29.12%3.433.751.16
Peter CrouchForwardStoke28.83%3.473.751.15
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke28.48%3.513.951.14
Antonio MartinezForwardWest Ham28.30%3.533.551.13
Callum WilsonForwardBournemouth28.35%3.5341.13
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton28.14%3.553.951.13
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth27.81%3.64.51.11
Mame Biram DioufForwardStoke27.51%3.644.331.1
Benik AfobeForwardBournemouth26.93%3.714.51.08
Ayoze PerezForwardNewcastle26.52%3.774.21.06
Tammy AbrahamForwardSwansea25.35%3.9551.01
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth24.34%4.114.50.97
Wilfried BonyForwardSwansea23.95%4.1850.96
Steve MounieForwardHuddersfield24.10%4.1550.96
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom24.02%4.1650.96
Sam BaldockForwardBrighton23.87%4.194.750.95
Jay RodriguezForwardWest Brom23.12%4.3250.92
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom21.88%4.576.50.88
Laurent DepoitreForwardHuddersfield21.74%4.660.87
Courtney Baker-RichardsonForwardSwansea21.22%4.714.750.85
Josh Da SilvaForwardArsenal20.91%4.7850.84
Jordan AyewForwardSwansea19.78%5.066.10.79
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield19.39%5.1670.78
Oliver McBurnieForwardSwansea18.39%5.445.50.74
Anthony GeorgiouForwardSpurs9.52%10.5110.38

Midfielders

Leroy Sane was rested midweek so it looks like he’ll be starting at the weekend. Sane came on in the 95th minute in Extra Time and also scored one of the penalties. He’s in fantastic form this season and is genuinely one of the most promising footballers in world football. He can shoot, cross, pass, dribble, he’s fantastic. The German winger has a 45.68% chance of scoring this week, and with Sterling likely rested dare I say Sané is nailed on this weekend? Nah its Pep, afterall.

Salah is a quality player, but he isn’t world class. He would be world class if he could finish. Salah cannot finish. Also, he sort of looks like David Haye, and David Haye is a wanker. The Egyptian has a 50.86% chance of scoring, which equates to flipping a coin with a slightly heavier side and predicting which side it’ll land on.

Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has slowly been finding his groove since coming back from injury. I say slowly because he should hurry up and start scoring some more as he is in the OddsOnFPL team. Hazard has a 41.58% chance of scoring against Bournemouth, a side which he scored twice against last season. After 6 games, he’s due one, isn’t he? No, I’m not falling into the lure of gamblers fallacy.

Anthony Knockaert has been in inspired form as of late and comes up against a Southampton side which looks absolutely awful. Brighton have some absolutely fantastic wide sided players, with Knockaert seemingly upping his level since Jose Izquierdo has been signed from Brugge. Knockaert has been dealing with his father’s death as of late and has seemingly struggled to make the move up, until 2 weeks ago, that is. The Frenchman has averaged a goal every 3 games for Brighton and at 5.7m, he could become a snip at it, if he repeats it. Knockaert is only a 22.46% chance of scoring this week, in a game which will probably end an amazing 0-0.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Alexis SanchezMidfielderArsenal58.87%1.71.782.94
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool50.86%1.972.052.54
Philippe CoutinhoMidfielderLiverpool48.35%2.072.252.42
Theo WalcottMidfielderArsenal47.19%2.122.252.36
Leroy SaneMidfielderMan City45.68%2.192.42.28
Reiss NelsonMidfielderArsenal42.24%2.372.42.11
Raheem SterlingMidfielderMan City41.60%2.42.632.08
Eden HazardMidfielderChelsea41.58%2.412.72.08
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool39.84%2.512.851.99
Bernardo SilvaMidfielderMan City39.78%2.512.951.99
Alex IwobiMidfielderArsenal37.65%2.6631.88
Ahmed MusaMidfielderLeicester36.58%2.732.81.83
Mesut OzilMidfielderArsenal36.33%2.753.31.82
RicharlisonMidfielderWatford35.47%2.823.051.77
Wilfried ZahaMidfielderCrystal Palace35.42%2.823.31.77
Lazar MarkovicMidfielderLiverpool35.09%2.852.851.75
Jeff Reine-AdelaideMidfielderArsenal34.72%2.882.91.74
PedroMidfielderChelsea34.31%2.923.251.72
Aaron RamseyMidfielderArsenal34.07%2.943.251.7
Ovie EjariaMidfielderLiverpool33.67%2.9731.68
Isaac SuccessMidfielderWatford33.11%3.023.11.66
Kevin De BruyneMidfielderMan City32.94%3.043.51.65
Anthony MartialMidfielderManchester United32.91%3.043.751.65
WillianMidfielderChelsea31.70%3.153.61.59
Oleksandr ZinchenkoMidfielderMan City30.89%3.243.351.54
Bakary SakoMidfielderCrystal Palace30.10%3.323.651.5
Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingMidfielderStoke29.13%3.433.751.46
Charly MusondaMidfielderChelsea28.71%3.484.21.44
Marko GrujicMidfielderLiverpool28.65%3.493.91.43
Ilkay GundoganMidfielderMan City28.55%3.54.11.43
Rodriguez JeseMidfielderStoke27.96%3.583.81.4
Phil FodenMidfielderMan City27.78%3.63.651.39
Michail AntonioMidfielderWest Ham27.69%3.614.11.38
David SilvaMidfielderMan City27.36%3.654.51.37
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderLiverpool27.33%3.664.51.37
Dele AlliMidfielderSpurs26.97%3.714.21.35
Riyad MahrezMidfielderLeicester26.94%3.714.21.35
Henrikh MkhitaryanMidfielderManchester United26.60%3.764.331.33
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace26.24%3.814.81.31
Andre AyewMidfielderWest Ham25.91%3.864.21.3
Son Heung-MinMidfielderSpurs25.85%3.874.21.29
Manuel LanziniMidfielderWest Ham25.69%3.894.41.28
Marko ArnautovicMidfielderWest Ham25.22%3.974.51.26
Matt RitchieMidfielderNewcastle25.05%3.994.51.25
Dusan TadicMidfielderSouthampton25.04%3.994.61.25
Ruben Loftus-CheekMidfielderCrystal Palace24.95%4.014.51.25
Jack WilshereMidfielderArsenal24.88%4.025.51.24
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton24.74%4.044.51.24
Yaya ToureMidfielderMan City24.50%4.085.51.22
Sullay KaikaiMidfielderCrystal Palace24.35%4.114.331.22
Cesc FabregasMidfielderChelsea24.31%4.114.91.22
Sofiane BoufalMidfielderSouthampton23.97%4.174.91.2
Nathan RedmondMidfielderSouthampton23.85%4.1951.19
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford23.73%4.2151.19
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool23.68%4.225.51.18
Jacob MurphyMidfielderNewcastle23.65%4.234.51.18
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford23.39%4.285.61.17
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford23.14%4.325.61.16
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool23.09%4.335.251.15
Kevin MirallasMidfielderEverton23.00%4.3551.15
Andre CarrilloMidfielderSwansea22.99%4.354.91.15
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke22.91%4.3751.15
Juan MataMidfielderManchester United22.55%4.435.251.13
Jesse LingardMidfielderManchester United22.49%4.4551.12
Anthony KnockaertMidfielderBrighton22.46%4.4551.12
Pascal GrossMidfielderBrighton22.25%4.495.81.11
Christian AtsuMidfielderNewcastle22.21%4.55.251.11
Isaiah BrownMidfielderBrighton22.02%4.545.61.1
Ademola LookmanMidfielderEverton21.87%4.575.81.09
Jose IzquierdoMidfielderBrighton21.79%4.5951.09
Robbie BradyMidfielderBurnley21.34%4.695.81.07
Junior StanislasMidfielderBournemouth21.22%4.7161.06
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace20.69%4.836.251.03
Jeff HendrickMidfielderBurnley20.65%4.847.51.03
Nikola VlasicMidfielderEverton20.64%4.856.51.03
Sead HaksabanovicMidfielderBurnley20.62%4.855.31.03
Demarai GrayMidfielderLeicester20.26%4.9461.01
Erik LamelaMidfielderSpurs20.18%4.9561.01
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke20.18%4.9661.01
James Ward-ProwseMidfielderSouthampton20.14%4.9761.01
Hamza ChoudhuryMidfielderLeicester19.95%5.015.251
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton19.92%5.0261
Thibaud VerlindenMidfielderStoke19.88%5.035.250.99
Granit XhakaMidfielderArsenal19.58%5.1170.98
Mohamed DiameMidfielderNewcastle19.56%5.115.80.98
Christian EriksenMidfielderSpurs19.49%5.136.10.97
Vicente IborraMidfielderLeicester19.40%5.1560.97
Tom InceMidfielderHuddersfield19.25%5.270.96
Solly MarchMidfielderBrighton19.21%5.270.96
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford19.18%5.2160.96
Jamie MurphyMidfielderBrighton19.04%5.256.50.95
Scott ArfieldMidfielderBurnley19.04%5.256.50.95
Soufyan AhannachMidfielderBrighton18.99%5.275.50.95
Johann Berg GudmundssonMidfielderBurnley18.67%5.366.50.93
Des HutchinsonMidfielderBrighton18.52%5.45.60.93
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke18.45%5.426.50.92
Elias KachungaMidfielderHuddersfield18.14%5.5170.91
Marc AlbrightonMidfielderLeicester18.10%5.5360.9
Henri SaivetMidfielderNewcastle18.06%5.545.750.9
Levi LumekaMidfielderCrystal Palace18.05%5.546.250.9
KenedyMidfielderEverton17.81%5.616.50.89
Nacer ChadliMidfielderWest Brom17.62%5.6870.88
Marouane FellainiMidfielderManchester United17.54%5.76.50.88
Andy KingMidfielderLeicester17.42%5.746.750.87
Oliver BurkeMidfielderWest Brom17.41%5.7570.87
Abdelhamid SabiriMidfielderHuddersfield17.28%5.7980.86
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth17.22%5.817.50.86
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace17.19%5.8280.86
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom17.17%5.8380.86
Davy PropperMidfielderBrighton16.96%5.96.50.85
Daniel DrinkwaterMidfielderChelsea16.95%5.960.85
Georges-Kevin NkoudouMidfielderSpurs16.84%5.9470.84
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace16.46%6.087.50.82
Aaron LennonMidfielderEverton16.45%6.0870.82
Scott McTominayMidfielderManchester United16.42%6.0970.82
Ibrahim AfellayMidfielderStoke16.42%6.097.50.82
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool16.40%6.190.82
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke16.39%6.180.82
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom16.39%6.19.50.82
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace16.27%6.1570.81
Steven DavisMidfielderSouthampton16.18%6.187.50.81
Mark NobleMidfielderWest Ham16.11%6.2170.81
Leroy FerMidfielderSwansea15.97%6.268.50.8
Jason PuncheonMidfielderCrystal Palace15.96%6.277.50.8
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth15.69%6.387.50.78
Jonjo ShelveyMidfielderNewcastle15.39%6.580.77
Cheikhou KouyateMidfielderWest Ham15.38%6.58.50.77
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton15.33%6.528.50.77
Jordon MutchMidfielderCrystal Palace15.22%6.577.50.76
FernandinhoMidfielderMan City15.17%6.5990.76
Will HughesMidfielderWatford15.04%6.657.50.75
Kyle ScottMidfielderChelsea14.84%6.7480.74
Tiemoue BakayokoMidfielderChelsea14.62%6.8480.73
Steven DefourMidfielderBurnley14.55%6.8880.73
Edimilson FernandesMidfielderWest Ham14.45%6.927.50.72
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth14.43%6.9390.72
Ben WatsonMidfielderWatford14.29%78.50.71
Steve SidwellMidfielderBrighton14.29%770.71
Ander HerreraMidfielderManchester United14.17%7.068.50.71
Rolando AaronsMidfielderNewcastle14.16%7.067.50.71
Joe LolleyMidfielderHuddersfield14.08%7.180.7
Luciano NarsinghMidfielderSwansea13.97%7.1610.50.7
Wayne RoutledgeMidfielderSwansea13.95%7.17100.7
James MorrisonMidfielderWest Brom13.92%7.1890.7
Fabian DelphMidfielderMan City13.92%7.18100.7
Nathan DyerMidfielderSwansea13.84%7.23100.69
Mohamed ElnenyMidfielderArsenal13.66%7.32100.68
Mikel MerinoMidfielderNewcastle13.63%7.3490.68
Ainsley Maitland-NilesMidfielderArsenal13.52%7.4100.68
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield13.37%7.48100.67
Emerson HyndmanMidfielderBournemouth13.33%7.57.50.67
Francis CoquelinMidfielderArsenal12.66%7.9100.63
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom12.64%7.91120.63
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth12.57%7.95100.63
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield12.55%7.97100.63
Mario LeminaMidfielderSouthampton12.32%8.11100.62
Mesa RoqueMidfielderSwansea12.00%8.338.50.6
Moussa SissokoMidfielderSpurs11.98%8.35100.6
Wilfred NdidiMidfielderLeicester11.88%8.42110.59
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth11.70%8.55100.59
Darren FletcherMidfielderStoke11.67%8.57100.58
Pierre-Emile HojbjergMidfielderSouthampton11.49%8.79.50.57
Jack CorkMidfielderBurnley11.35%8.81110.57
Dean MarneyMidfielderBurnley11.30%8.8511.50.56
Ki Sung-yuengMidfielderSwansea11.17%8.9512.50.56
Harry WinksMidfielderSpurs11.14%8.98100.56
Sam ClucasMidfielderSwansea10.84%9.23130.54
James McCarthyMidfielderEverton10.74%9.31120.54
Dale StephensMidfielderBrighton10.65%9.39150.53
Connor MahoneyMidfielderBournemouth10.62%9.42100.53
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton10.58%9.45120.53
Nemanja MaticMidfielderManchester United10.19%9.81110.51
Ashley YoungMidfielderManchester United10.18%9.82130.51
Beram KayalMidfielderBrighton10.18%9.83110.51
Ashley WestwoodMidfielderBurnley10.11%9.89130.51
Oriol RomeuMidfielderSouthampton10.05%9.95150.5
Tom CarrollMidfielderSwansea9.95%10.05130.5
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth9.91%10.09130.5
Mousa DembeleMidfielderSpurs9.89%10.11130.49
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton9.66%10.35120.48
Pedro ObiangMidfielderWest Ham9.52%10.5160.48
Renato SanchesMidfielderSwansea9.44%10.6130.47
Isaac HaydenMidfielderNewcastle9.44%10.59190.47
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth9.34%10.7170.47
Tashan Oakley-BootheMidfielderSpurs9.30%10.75110.47
Grzegorz KrychowiakMidfielderWest Brom9.30%10.75190.47
Muhamed BesicMidfielderEverton9.13%10.95130.46
Eric DierMidfielderSpurs8.90%11.24130.44
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom8.85%11.3150.44
Adam KingMidfielderSwansea8.79%11.38120.44
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield8.70%11.5120.43
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom8.22%12.17130.41
Jayson MolumbyMidfielderBrighton8.22%12.17210.41
Michael CarrickMidfielderManchester United8.03%12.45150.4
Gareth BarryMidfielderWest Brom7.53%13.29230.38
Jay FultonMidfielderSwansea6.82%14.67150.34
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield6.13%16.32210.31
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom6.06%16.5230.3
Jonathan HoggMidfielderHuddersfield5.36%18.66210.27

Defenders

Nacho Monreal scored again at the weekend. That’s  2 goals so far this season. 2 of the goals coming in his last 3 games, WHAT IS GOING ON! Arsenal takes on Swansea this week and afterward their fixtures get tough so it could be Monreal’s last chance to score for a while. Personally, I think there is more chance of me cleaning up at the greyhounds this Friday than Monreal scoring. The bookie’s price the full-back-come-centre-back-I’m-going-to-continue-writing-like-this as a 10.07% chance of scoring, the 31st most likely scorer this week.

Nicolas ‘The Beard’ Otamendi also scored last weekend making it his 2nd of the season. A battle between Monreal/Otamendi for the ‘Defender who scores the most’ Award. Otamendi is only a 10.78% chance of scoring against West Brom away, a feat which would destroy may owners of Hegazy. Can I ask why 25% of people still own Hegazy?

James Milner is this weeks most likely scorer at a whopping 27.52%, why? I don’t know. The English midfielder is out of position in the game, as he has been playing central midfield as of late. He isn’t on penalties anymore, but if he does start he could be a fantastic differential due to how high up he plays on the field. An expensive differential.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool27.52%3.634.51.65
Marcos AlonsoDefenderChelsea21.31%4.695.51.28
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool16.88%5.927.51.01
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace16.18%6.187.50.97
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace15.90%6.297.50.95
Sead KolasinacDefenderArsenal14.10%7.09100.85
Sam McQueenDefenderSouthampton13.39%7.47110.8
Laurent KoscielnyDefenderArsenal13.37%7.48100.8
Tosin AdarabioyoDefenderMan City12.70%7.8880.76
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford12.59%7.949.50.76
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton12.59%7.949.50.76
Scott DannDefenderCrystal Palace12.39%8.079.50.74
Gary CahillDefenderChelsea12.22%8.189.50.73
Mathieu DebuchyDefenderArsenal11.94%8.388.50.72
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool11.82%8.46130.71
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth11.73%8.52100.7
Jamaal LascellesDefenderNewcastle11.46%8.7310.50.69
Vincent KompanyDefenderMan City11.27%8.8890.68
David LuizDefenderChelsea11.18%8.94120.67
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool11.11%9130.67
Hector BellerinDefenderArsenal11.06%9.05130.66
Victor MosesDefenderChelsea11.03%9.07120.66
Per MertesackerDefenderArsenal10.97%9.11130.66
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford10.89%9.18120.65
Josh KnightDefenderLeicester10.81%9.259.50.65
Nicolas OtamendiDefenderMan City10.78%9.27130.65
Jake Clarke-SalterDefenderChelsea10.67%9.389.50.64
Harry MaguireDefenderLeicester10.45%9.57110.63
Virgil van DijkDefenderSouthampton10.23%9.77150.61
Jamie SterryDefenderNewcastle10.13%9.88100.61
Nacho MonrealDefenderArsenal10.07%9.93130.6
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton10.05%9.95120.6
Jeremy PiedDefenderSouthampton10.00%10110.6
Davide ZappacostaDefenderChelsea9.90%10.1120.59
Rob HoldingDefenderArsenal9.84%10.16130.59
Jon FlanaganDefenderLiverpool9.76%10.25110.59
Shane DuffyDefenderBrighton9.66%10.35150.58
DaniloDefenderMan City9.65%10.36130.58
Ciaran ClarkDefenderNewcastle9.50%10.52130.57
Miguel BritosDefenderWatford9.46%10.57150.57
Lewis DunkDefenderBrighton9.42%10.61150.57
Alfie MawsonDefenderSwansea9.30%10.75150.56
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford9.28%10.77170.56
Marvin ZeegelaarDefenderWatford9.27%10.79160.56
Gareth McAuleyDefenderWest Brom9.21%10.86130.55
Jordan WilliamsDefenderLiverpool9.09%11150.55
Christian FuchsDefenderLeicester9.01%11.1150.54
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace8.98%11.14150.54
Maya YoshidaDefenderSouthampton8.94%11.18150.54
John StonesDefenderMan City8.91%11.22150.53
Kyle WalkerDefenderMan City8.88%11.26150.53
Nathan AkeDefenderBournemouth8.84%11.32130.53
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool8.76%11.41150.53
Andreas ChristensenDefenderChelsea8.68%11.52150.52
Pape SouareDefenderCrystal Palace8.60%11.63120.52
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford8.60%11.63120.52
Eliaquim MangalaDefenderMan City8.54%11.7150.51
Yohan BenalouaneDefenderLeicester8.47%11.8120.51
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom8.44%11.84150.51
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke8.43%11.86170.51
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool8.41%11.89150.5
Molla WagueDefenderWatford8.33%12170.5
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth8.33%12120.5
Uwe HunemeierDefenderBrighton8.30%12.05190.5
Aaron CresswellDefenderWest Ham8.18%12.23170.49
Antonio ValenciaDefenderManchester United8.09%12.36150.49
Jairo RiedewaldDefenderCrystal Palace8.09%12.36170.49
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke8.03%12.45170.48
Daniel AmarteyDefenderLeicester7.87%12.7190.47
Kurt ZoumaDefenderStoke7.77%12.86170.47
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth7.69%13150.46
Aleksander DragovicDefenderLeicester7.69%13160.46
Ben ChilwellDefenderLeicester7.63%13.11190.46
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield7.46%13.41180.45
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth7.43%13.45150.45
Declan RiceDefenderWest Ham7.41%13.5210.44
James TarkowskiDefenderBurnley7.41%13.5190.44
Danny RoseDefenderSpurs7.38%13.55170.44
Stephen WardDefenderBurnley7.38%13.55190.44
Ryan BertrandDefenderSouthampton7.35%13.61210.44
Serge AurierDefenderSpurs7.33%13.64170.44
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool7.32%13.67190.44
Winston ReidDefenderWest Ham7.28%13.73210.44
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool7.26%13.77190.44
Antonio RudigerDefenderChelsea7.25%13.8170.43
Mike van der HoornDefenderSwansea7.19%13.91210.43
Chris SmallingDefenderManchester United7.16%13.98170.43
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton7.10%14.09190.43
Wes MorganDefenderLeicester7.10%14.09190.43
Florian LejeuneDefenderNewcastle7.09%14.11230.43
Josh TymonDefenderStoke7.07%14.14210.42
Wesley HoedtDefenderSouthampton7.07%14.14210.42
Toby AlderweireldDefenderSpurs7.01%14.26170.42
Scott MaloneDefenderHuddersfield7.01%14.27230.42
Daley BlindDefenderManchester United6.90%14.5170.41
Timothy Fosu-MensahDefenderCrystal Palace6.81%14.68210.41
James CollinsDefenderWest Ham6.80%14.7210.41
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom6.77%14.77230.41
Cesar AzpilicuetaDefenderChelsea6.72%14.89180.4
Kiko FemeniaDefenderWatford6.71%14.9230.4
Ben MeeDefenderBurnley6.71%14.91200.4
Phil BardsleyDefenderBurnley6.67%15200.4
Ezequiel SchelottoDefenderBrighton6.66%15.02260.4
Ahmed HegaziDefenderWest Brom6.64%15.05190.4
Axel TuanzebeDefenderManchester United6.62%15.1190.4
Mamadou SakhoDefenderCrystal Palace6.60%15.16260.4
Matt TargettDefenderSouthampton6.56%15.24260.39
Chancel MbembaDefenderNewcastle6.54%15.29230.39
Kevin WimmerDefenderStoke6.53%15.32190.39
Jack StephensDefenderSouthampton6.50%15.38190.39
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke6.49%15.4170.39
Ales MatejuDefenderBrighton6.31%15.86230.38
Kevin LongDefenderBurnley6.31%15.86230.38
Ben DaviesDefenderSpurs6.28%15.93200.38
Connor GoldsonDefenderBrighton6.28%15.93260.38
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace6.22%16.07260.37
Eric BaillyDefenderManchester United6.17%16.21210.37
Phil JonesDefenderManchester United6.03%16.6210.36
Markus SuttnerDefenderBrighton6.03%16.59260.36
Jan BednarekDefenderSouthampton6.01%16.64190.36
Kyle Walker-PetersDefenderSpurs6.00%16.67210.36
Victor LindelofDefenderManchester United5.99%16.7210.36
Arthur MasuakuDefenderWest Ham5.95%16.82260.36
Massadio HaidaraDefenderNewcastle5.95%16.8290.36
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace5.91%16.93260.35
Harry SoutarDefenderStoke5.88%17170.35
Charlie TaylorDefenderBurnley5.88%17230.35
Kieran GibbsDefenderWest Brom5.84%17.14510.35
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace5.81%17.21260.35
Matthew LowtonDefenderBurnley5.77%17.32290.35
Jonjoe KennyDefenderEverton5.66%17.68230.34
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton5.64%17.73230.34
Ashley WilliamsDefenderEverton5.62%17.8290.34
Pablo ZabaletaDefenderWest Ham5.61%17.83260.34
Juan FoythDefenderSpurs5.56%18210.33
DeAndre YedlinDefenderNewcastle5.51%18.16340.33
Davinson SanchezDefenderSpurs5.43%18.43260.33
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke5.39%18.55290.32
Jose FonteDefenderWest Ham5.37%18.64340.32
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke5.29%18.92290.32
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield5.26%19300.32
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth5.26%19190.32
Luke ShawDefenderManchester United5.25%19.05230.32
Martin OlssonDefenderSwansea5.24%19.1230.31
Sam ByramDefenderWest Ham5.24%19.09340.31
Javier ManquilloDefenderNewcastle5.24%19.1290.31
Kieran TrippierDefenderSpurs5.17%19.32260.31
Jan VertonghenDefenderSpurs5.15%19.4260.31
Angelo OgbonnaDefenderWest Ham4.90%20.41340.29
Matteo DarmianDefenderManchester United4.88%20.5260.29
Leon BrittonDefenderSwansea4.86%20.59260.29
Cedric SoaresDefenderSouthampton4.80%20.83410.29
Adrian MariappaDefenderWatford4.71%21.23290.28
Liam RoseniorDefenderBrighton4.69%21.32410.28
Danny SimpsonDefenderLeicester4.65%21.5290.28
BrunoDefenderBrighton4.63%21.62260.28
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton4.61%21.68290.28
Erik PietersDefenderStoke4.60%21.75290.28
Angel RangelDefenderSwansea4.59%21.77260.28
Kyle NaughtonDefenderSwansea4.57%21.86290.27
Mathias JorgensenDefenderHuddersfield4.56%21.94260.27
Gaetan BongDefenderBrighton4.38%22.82410.26
Jesus GamezDefenderNewcastle4.32%23.14410.26
Federico FernandezDefenderSwansea4.30%23.27290.26
Martin CranieDefenderHuddersfield3.87%25.86310.23
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth3.86%25.93340.23
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield3.52%28.43340.21
NyomDefenderWest Brom3.51%28.45340.21
Florent HadergjonajDefenderHuddersfield3.40%29.38340.2

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