Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 10 #FPL

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A tragic Gameweek 9 for many in terms of clean sheets with only 4 sides keeping a clean sheet, with Brighton being a massive outsider to do so against West Ham. Chelsea seem to have forgotten how to defend as of late, and were extremely lucky to win against Watford. Manchester United were shocked when they saw themselves 2-0 down after 30 minutes away to Huddersfield, but a team with Lindelof almost always looks like scoring as of late. Arsenal conceded to Everton, and Everton conceded 5, with Koeman getting the boot thanks to it. It was just Goals Galore and gore, gore, gore for sides with expensive defenders.

Team NamePercentage ChanceAverage OddsMax Odds
Liverpool57.47%1.741.8
Arsenal54.45%1.841.85
Man City54.05%1.851.87
Chelsea40.49%2.472.6
Southampton40.20%2.492.5
Watford37.31%2.682.8
Leicester36.97%2.712.8
Man Utd35.97%2.782.87
Newcastle34.01%2.943
Burnley33.73%2.973.1
Crystal Palace33.67%2.973.1
Brighton31.75%3.153.2
West Ham29.30%3.413.5
Spurs26.76%3.743.75
Everton25.81%3.884
Stoke25.00%44.2
Bournemouth15.69%6.386.5
West Brom9.23%10.8312
Huddersfield8.96%11.1712
Swansea8.33%1213

DO’S

The running joke at the minute is that Liverpool can’t defend. They’ve conceded a whopping 15 goals away from home in 5 games which is the highest in the premier league. A big contrast to their home form where they have only conceded 1 goal in 4 games. You’d be mental to have a Liverpool defender in your team but they have a 57.47% chance of keeping a clean sheet this week. One major advantage to any owner is that Dejan Lovren is unlikely to start after a horror showing against Spurs at the weekend. Moreno and Joe Gomez could both be solid shouts for a cheap route into the Liverpool defence this week. One thing I can’t stand in football is fans slagging off their own players, and the treatment Lovren has gotten from Liverpool fans as of late has been shocking. Support your own players when they are down. You’ll never walk alone, yeah right.

Man City take on West Brom in the Hawthorns this week. City have only conceded 1 goal away from home in 4 games. Otamendi and the lads have looked very comfortable at the back compared to last year. It’s no surprise to see their expectancy to keep a clean sheet at 54.05%. Otamendi has already risen, and it’s looking like he could soon be essential given his goals of late. Ederson is the most nailed on defensive player in the side and looks a snip at 5.5m.

In what could be Marcos Alonso’s last chance in my personal team, Chelsea take on a poor Bournemouth side. Chelsea have not kept many clean sheets this season which has surprised many FPL players. With Courtois and Alonso already dropping this week, it seems many players have lost faith in the Chelsea rearguard. Bournemouth have only scored 6 goals this season and if Chelsea concede again this week it may be time to ship those defenders out. Chelsea still have a decent chance of keeping a clean sheet at 40.49%.

DONT’S

Crystal Palace may not be scoring lots of goals, but they come up against a West Ham side that loves giving them away. The Hammers have conceded 17 goals so far this season. Only Stoke have conceded more. In 5 away games they’ve conceded 11 goals. It doesn’t look good for West Ham as of late, and Bilic has gotten the dreaded vote of confidence. West Ham have only a 29.30% chance of keeping a clean sheet against a side which have only scored twice this season.

Watford have been a surprise package so far this season. They should have beaten Chelsea had Richarlison known how to score from 5 yards out. They’ve impressed me a lot this season, as had Marco Silva last season at Hull. Stoke travel to Vicarage road in hope of getting some much-needed points after a poor start. Normally defensive Stoke have been a shambles, with the Potters already conceding 20 goals this season. Watford are averaging 2 goals per game at home while Stoke are averaging conceding over 2 goals a game. Stoke have just a 25% chance keeping a clean sheet. Stoke come up against the equaliser, he’s physical, he’s rough, he’s ugly, he’s Troy Deeney.

I’ll be amazed if anybody can keep a clean sheet against Manchester City this season (Unless of course you are the mighty Wolves) They look to be firing on all cylinders. Pep has got them scoring goals for fun as they added another 3 to their tally. I don’t think Hegazi and Co will be able to handle  Aguero/Jesus (Or neither, nobody knows if Pep will even play them) West Brom have just a 9.23% chance of stopping City from scoring. City have scored 32 goals in the league this season, averaging 3.56 goals a game. Good luck.

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