Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 8 #FPL

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Will Crystal Palace ever score? Will a Nigerian prince ever give you 100 million? Will Fetch ever happen? The answer to these things is a definitive NO. This week Palace take on Chelsea. So I would be quicker to check my bank account for Prince’s deposit than to see if Courtois had conceded. It’s no surprise that Chelsea have a 53.27% chance of keeping a clean sheet. While the favourites are Manchester City, who top this weeks table with a 53.45% chance of keeping Berahino at bay. They should probably be more likely in reality.

Team NamePercentage ChanceAverage OddsMax Odds
Man City53.45%1.872
Chelsea53.27%1.881.98
Spurs53.04%1.892
Swansea43.86%2.282.38
Leicester42.03%2.382.45
Southampton41.78%2.392.45
Everton38.95%2.572.63
Arsenal36.56%2.742.8
Burnley34.68%2.883
West Ham33.03%3.033.2
Brighton32.02%3.123.35
Huddersfield30.01%3.333.5
Liverpool29.69%3.373.5
Man Utd26.93%3.713.9
West Brom25.20%3.974.2
Newcastle22.04%4.544.8
Watford14.91%6.717.3
Crystal Palace14.66%6.827.5
Bournemouth7.31%13.6815.5
Stoke5.58%17.9121

DO’S

Manchester City have been surprisingly good at keeping clean sheets this season. With the Citizens only conceding 2 goals so far. Peps side are known for their explosive attacking play, and largely possession-based football. This season though Pep’s side have managed to tighten the defence which could be crucial if they plan to win the League. Legendary Italian manager Arrigo Sacchi has gone on record to say that Pep has taken ‘Total Football’ to levels never seen before. It wouldn’t be like people to get ahead of themselves again, would it?

They’re this week’s leaders at 53.45% slightly ahead of Chelsea and Spurs. John Stones and Otamendi looked to have secured the two Centre Back roles due to Mangala being terrible, and Vincent Kompany and injury being less separable than Siamese twins. Kyle Walker is nailed on at Right Back and pushed on and on, and on, and on, and on just like this sentence.

Chelsea come up against a Crystal Palace side which have failed to score in the last 7 league games, and Chelsea are odds on in most places to do so again. In game week 8 they have a 49.15% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Palace are still without Christian Benteke and could play a midfielder in the false 9 role again, with Zaha likely to play more centrally since he is now back from injury. With Chelsea being ever resilient defensively they could very well keep a clean sheet once again.

Despite Palace being poorly, Chelsea are likely to miss N’Golo Kante for a number of weeks due to an injury picked up for France. This could mean that David Luiz could be played as an out of position midfielder for the blues, and has a higher likelihood of scoring. He could be a fantastic pick up this week.

Spurs take on a Bournemouth side who hate to score goals. If Ben Davies can dry his eyes by this weekend, he looks to be a great option to have this week. At this point, I’m going to teach you about a very simple thing called ‘tautology’. At this point, I’m going to teach you about a very simple thing called ‘tautology’.  Ben Davies is forever and always a good option.

The Welsh wingback was nullified midweek by the force that is Cyrus Christie, in Ireland’s 1-0 win against Wales. As owners of Davies in our personal teams, we’re hoping the form doesn’t transfer to club form. Spurs have a 53.04% chance of keeping a clean sheet this week. Personally, I feel it should be lower due to potential rotation due to the champions league and harder fixtures upcoming.

For those of you who opted for Kyle Naughton to be a cheap rotating defender this is the week to play him as Swansea have a 43.86% chance of a clean sheet and they probably won’t get much higher than that this season. Swansea are at home to a poor Huddersfield side which have failed to test opposition goalkeepers as of late. Mounie leads a mournful attacking side which has been miserable in front of goal as of late.

DONT’S

For one of the first times, this season Manchester United are one of the least likely sides to keep a clean sheet. Phil Jones is still doubtful, and United without Marouane Fellaini, Paul Pogba, United could be set to lose the midfield battle even before the game. United are only a 26.93% chance to keep a clean sheet against Liverpool, and given the attacking talents of Mane, Salah, Coutinho and Firmino it is unlikely many sides will keep a clean sheet against the Merseysiders. Given I had written this prior to Mane’s injury, I guess it isn’t as nailed as before that Liverpool score.

Crystal Palace are up against a Chelsea side which have goals in them. It is still not known for certain if Alvaro Morata is definitely ruled out for the fixture, but a little part of me thinks he will play regardless of injury. With the Spaniard looking to pick up the top scorer gong, playing against a side which have conceded 9 goals in their last 2 games is one of the more likely fixtures to score in. Eden Hazard is also back to full fitness and has a good record against Palace, picking up an assist last season against them. Palace will also be without Ruben Loftus-Cheek as the Chelsea loanee has been restricted from playing against his parent club. Palace have only a mere 14.66% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

Bournemouth come up against the Harry Kane team who scores every game two or three goals. Harry Kane FC‘s players named Harry scored 13 goals alone for club and country in September, with the rest of the side scoring a few goals too. Bournemouth come up against the Spurs side who are in red-hot form, but could rotate some players with a glamour Champions League tie with Real Madrid midweek. While Bournemouth may not see a full arsenal of attacking talent, there won’t be a Lacazette. Lack of it. Ha Ha. Asmir Begovic is likely to be kept busy, and given Howe’s penchant for not playing defensive football, the Cherries could find themselves at the end of a hammering. [I swear that wasn’t another London club joke]

Lol. Stoke City aren’t keeping a clean sheet against Man City. With some places offering less than a 5% chance for them to keep a clean sheet against a rampant Man City attack. Gabriel Jesus, Kevin de Bruyne, David Silva, Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane, I can see why Stoke are unlikely to keep a clean sheet. They still have more of a chance than Lloyd, I guess. On average the Potters have a 5.58% chance of keeping a clean sheet. I would still recommend you keep an eye on Stoke players though, as their fixtures improve massively after this game.

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