Cleansheet Probabilities – Gameweek 7 #FPL

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Another week goes by and still, Crystal Palace has failed to score a Premier League goal. No surprises to see United top the table this week considering they play Crystal Palace. It is a slightly below average game week, with only 6.37 clean sheets expected in total, with the only odds-on chances being that of Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Man Utd65.90%1.521.572.64
Arsenal53.88%1.861.912.16
Tottenham51.46%1.9422.06
Everton46.91%2.132.231.88
West Brom42.09%2.382.451.68
West Ham41.77%2.392.51.67
Liverpool37.56%2.662.771.5
Southampton34.50%2.931.38
Stoke32.88%3.043.11.32
Watford31.01%3.233.41.24
Leicester28.17%3.553.751.13
Man City27.15%3.683.851.09
Bournemouth26.37%3.794.051.05
Chelsea24.49%4.084.250.98
Swansea22.41%4.464.650.9
Burnley20.62%4.855.10.82
Newcastle17.52%5.7160.7
Huddersfield14.00%7.147.70.56
Brighton9.45%10.5812.50.38
Crystal Palace9.02%11.0812.50.36

DO’S

It is an absolute requisite to have a Manchester United defender this game week, in fact, I would go as far to say that a United defender and another defender could be a requisite. With United being a 65.9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, they’re more likely than your mum being laid this weekend. A United defender has been a must have so far this season and it’s no different this week. Eric Bailly, Phil Jones, David De Gea and Antonio Valencia seem to be nailed on and are the safest options, with the left back up for grabs, and seemingly being grabbed by Ashley Young as of late. Valencia and Jones were both rested for the fixture away in Russia to CSKA, which would indicate they’re likely to play in the Premier League. Palace are without their only striker Christian Benteke for the fixture, with the Belgian out with the ‘I don’t want to play for these anymores‘, and could be replaced by Carlton Cole, a man who has been taken over by drugs, sex and himself, since leaving West Ham.

Arsenal, fresh from a win to nil victory against West Brom, are favourites to keep a clean sheet against Brighton. With that being said, Arsenal’s Nacho Monreal saved them from an inevitable goal, with a fantastic goal-line clearance. Brighton are without Tomer Hemed after he stamped maliciously on DeAndre Yedlin, and are going to either be reliant on Glenn Murray or Sam Baldock in the Premier League over the next few game weeks. With both players being bog-standard attackers, Arsenal defenders will have a wealth of experience defending against players of similar standard in training, sorry Giroud, Bendtner, Welbeck… the list goes on. Nacho Monreal and Sead Kolasinac are two of the standout options with both offering a chance of bonus points and potentially getting an assist.

Spurs come up against a Huddersfield side which have struggled for goals since their thrashing of Crystal Palace. Steve Mounie’s double against Palace is long forgotten (it was a double right?), and the Terriers have scored only once in their last 4 fixtures, failing to score against Burnley, West Ham and Southampton. If Ben Davies plays, he’ll again be expected to score high, heaven forbids he picks up a mysterious untold injury in Europe. Too soon? Spurs are a 51.46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, going by Huddersfield’s form of late, we think the bookies have been generous here.

DONT’S

Huddersfield have just a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet. They take on a Spurs team which performs like a cheating husband, better away, than they do at home. Spurs have won their 3 away games this season and it gives them a break from Wembley, their ‘home’. Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in his last 6 games, with the Englishman scoring a hat trick last night against APOEL. This form is enough to scare any defender, even if Huddersfield’s backline is on average 8 foot tall. Overperforming players like Lossl, Zanka, Schindler should all be avoided this game week.

Manchester City and Chelsea. Man City has only conceded 2 goals so far this season, but they take on Chelsea where new signing Alvaro Morata can’t stop scoring. Champions Chelsea, on the other hand, has been slightly leakier this season, but are still a force defensively. With that being said Manchester City have averaged 5 goals a game in their last 3 league games, with Sergio Aguero being “literally on fire” – Shano 2k17. Man City has only a 27.15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, while Chelsea has only a 24.49% chance of keeping one. Expect goals, but probably not that many from the two resolute sides. A horror of a fixture to call.

Crystal Palace have a miserly 9.02% chance of keeping a clean sheet, and that is perhaps even a tad bit high. Palace have been miserable this season and show no signs of stopping the rot after being thrashed by Manchester City 5-0 last weekend. Hodgson has gone to extreme measures to restore confidence in attempting to thrash Conference side Bromley in a midweek friendly. We can’t help but think this could go horribly wrong for Roy, which shows just how poor this Palace side have been this season. Schlupp could have been considered an option due to playing OOP, but we fear he could receive more points on the bench this game week.

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