Expected Points GW6 – Odds On #FPL

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We’re 6 weeks in, and we’re coming into the time period where a lot of people are starting to lose interest due to their team flailing, their wildcards flopping, and whatever awful excuse they have for doing poorly this season. Not us though, with the bookies helping us along the way, we find the best way to make the best decisions.

Overall

Alexis Sanchez has made an incredibly hard decision to choose between the inform Argentinian, Aguero, and himself for this week’s captain. Both players are potentially not nailed on, and both have a massive upside to their selection, with Sanchez’s fixtures arguably being a big enough advantage for him to be chosen in this week’s team. With both players having over 4.0 points expected this game week they’re the outright best choices for captaincy. With Aguero and Sanchez fighting it out for the top spot, the rest of the top ten is littered with Arsenal, City, Spurs and Chelsea players, with Manchester United’s contingent not even being close to the top scoring players this game week.

Player NamePositionClubAnytime ExpectedTwo or More ExpectedClean Sheet PointsSum Expected
Alexis SanchezMidfielderArsenal2.620.990.47844.09
Sergio AgueroForwardMan City2.731.3304.06
Gabriel JesusForwardMan City2.571.1503.72
Tosin AdarabioyoDefenderMan City0.960.132.33883.43
Harry KaneForwardSpurs2.370.9903.36
Dele AlliMidfielderSpurs2.150.670.41493.24
Marcos AlonsoDefenderChelsea1.230.161.84323.23
Leroy SaneMidfielderMan City2.080.560.58473.22
Olivier GiroudForwardArsenal2.250.9303.18
Raheem SterlingMidfielderMan City2.040.550.58473.17
Vincent KompanyDefenderMan City0.750.072.33883.15
Alexandre LacazetteForwardArsenal2.230.8903.13
DaniloDefenderMan City0.720.052.33883.11
Nicolas OtamendiDefenderMan City0.70.052.33883.09
Bernardo SilvaMidfielderMan City1.980.520.58473.08
Kyle WalkerDefenderMan City0.670.052.33883.06
John StonesDefenderMan City0.660.052.33883.05
Eden HazardMidfielderChelsea1.990.550.46083
Eliaquim MangalaDefenderMan City0.570.042.33882.95
Theo WalcottMidfielderArsenal1.940.50.47842.92
Reiss NelsonMidfielderArsenal1.910.530.47842.92
Benjamin MendyDefenderMan City0.520.042.33882.9
Son Heung-MinMidfielderSpurs1.950.510.41492.87
Alvaro MorataForwardChelsea2.060.7702.83
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool1.930.520.34482.8
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton1.870.490.43472.8
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton0.950.111.73882.8
Kevin De BruyneMidfielderMan City1.80.410.58472.79
Laurent KoscielnyDefenderArsenal0.790.081.91362.79
Fernando LlorenteForwardSpurs2.020.7402.76
Yaya ToureMidfielderMan City1.740.410.58472.73
Victor MosesDefenderChelsea0.80.071.84322.72
Sead KolasinacDefenderArsenal0.730.071.91362.72
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool1.170.141.37922.69
Hector BellerinDefenderArsenal0.690.061.91362.66
Brahim DiazMidfielderMan City1.680.380.58472.65
Alex IwobiMidfielderArsenal1.730.440.47842.65
Romelu LukakuForwardManchester United1.930.7102.64
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton0.810.081.73882.63
Shkodran MustafiDefenderArsenal0.650.051.91362.62
Kevin MirallasMidfielderEverton1.750.430.43472.61
Mesut OzilMidfielderArsenal1.690.430.47842.6
Gary CahillDefenderChelsea0.690.061.84322.59
PedroMidfielderChelsea1.70.420.46082.58
Anthony MartialMidfielderManchester United1.710.410.45452.57
Per MertesackerDefenderArsenal0.610.051.91362.57
Ilkay GundoganMidfielderMan City1.610.350.58472.54
Jake Clarke-SalterDefenderChelsea0.620.071.84322.54
Rob HoldingDefenderArsenal0.580.041.91362.54
Calum ChambersDefenderArsenal0.580.041.91362.54
WillianMidfielderChelsea1.620.370.46082.46
Nacho MonrealDefenderArsenal0.510.041.91362.46
Ademola LookmanMidfielderEverton1.630.390.43472.46
Andreas ChristensenDefenderChelsea0.560.041.84322.45
Axel TuanzebeDefenderManchester United0.560.051.8182.43
Michy BatshuayiForwardChelsea1.830.602.43
Toby AlderweireldDefenderSpurs0.70.061.65962.42
Davide ZappacostaDefenderChelsea0.540.041.84322.42
Antonio ValenciaDefenderManchester United0.520.041.8182.38
Aaron RamseyMidfielderArsenal1.560.340.47842.38
Davinson SanchezDefenderSpurs0.660.051.65962.37
David SilvaMidfielderMan City1.50.280.58472.36
Phil FodenMidfielderMan City1.480.290.58472.36
Chris SmallingDefenderManchester United0.490.041.8182.35
Serge AurierDefenderSpurs0.630.051.65962.34
Alfie MawsonDefenderSwansea0.850.091.40322.34
Christian EriksenMidfielderSpurs1.570.350.41492.33
Antonio RudigerDefenderChelsea0.440.041.84322.32
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton0.550.041.73882.32
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool0.840.091.37922.31
Henrikh MkhitaryanMidfielderManchester United1.530.330.45452.31
Daley BlindDefenderManchester United0.440.031.8182.29
Phil JonesDefenderManchester United0.440.031.8182.29
Ashley WilliamsDefenderEverton0.510.041.73882.28
Charly MusondaMidfielderChelsea1.470.340.46082.27
James TarkowskiDefenderBurnley0.480.041.73882.26
Ben DaviesDefenderSpurs0.550.041.65962.25
Eric BaillyDefenderManchester United0.40.031.8182.25
Victor LindelofDefenderManchester United0.40.031.8182.25
Cesar AzpilicuetaDefenderChelsea0.350.031.84322.23
Jan VertonghenDefenderSpurs0.510.041.65962.21
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton0.440.031.73882.21
Stephen WardDefenderBurnley0.430.031.73882.21
Philippe CoutinhoMidfielderLiverpool1.530.310.34482.19
Luke ShawDefenderManchester United0.340.031.8182.19
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton1.690.502.19
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton0.420.031.73882.19
Jonjoe KennyDefenderEverton0.420.031.73882.19
Jon FlanaganDefenderBurnley0.40.041.73882.18
Ben MeeDefenderBurnley0.410.031.73882.18
Kieran TrippierDefenderSpurs0.470.041.65962.17
Matteo DarmianDefenderManchester United0.330.031.8182.17
Daniel SturridgeForwardLiverpool1.670.4902.16
Kevin LongDefenderBurnley0.390.031.73882.16
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool1.490.320.34482.15
Juan FoythDefenderSpurs0.450.031.65962.15
Kyle Walker-PetersDefenderSpurs0.460.031.65962.15
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton1.440.270.43472.14
Matthew LowtonDefenderBurnley0.360.031.73882.12
Jordan WilliamsDefenderLiverpool0.670.061.37922.11
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool1.650.4602.11
Nikola VlasicMidfielderEverton1.40.280.43472.11
Ahmed MusaMidfielderLeicester1.50.380.22.08
Lewis DunkDefenderBrighton0.590.041.43882.07
Lazar MarkovicMidfielderLiverpool1.40.310.34482.06
Shane DuffyDefenderBrighton0.580.041.43882.06
Sandro RamirezForwardEverton1.610.4502.06
Jamaal LascellesDefenderNewcastle0.60.051.39842.05
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton1.590.4502.05
Oumar NiasseForwardEverton1.620.4302.05
Danny IngsForwardLiverpool1.590.4402.04
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool0.610.051.37922.03
Jamie SterryDefenderNewcastle0.560.071.39842.03
Mike van der HoornDefenderSwansea0.580.041.40322.02
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool0.570.041.37922
Juan MataMidfielderManchester United1.310.240.45452
Georges-Kevin NkoudouMidfielderSpurs1.310.250.41491.97
Jack WilshereMidfielderArsenal1.250.250.47841.97
Ciaran ClarkDefenderNewcastle0.520.041.39841.96
Leon BrittonDefenderSwansea0.50.041.40321.94
Jesse LingardMidfielderManchester United1.260.220.45451.93
Uwe HunemeierDefenderBrighton0.460.031.43881.93
Jamie VardyForwardLeicester1.510.401.91
Paul DummettDefenderNewcastle0.450.051.39841.9
Anthony KnockaertMidfielderBrighton1.30.240.35971.9
Ovie EjariaMidfielderLiverpool1.290.250.34481.89
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool0.460.041.37921.87
Angel RangelDefenderSwansea0.430.031.40321.87
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool0.440.041.37921.86
Connor GoldsonDefenderBrighton0.390.031.43881.86
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton1.20.220.43471.86
Robbie BradyMidfielderBurnley1.190.220.43471.84
Aaron LennonMidfielderEverton1.210.190.43471.83
Jon FlanaganDefenderLiverpool0.40.041.37921.82
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool1.450.3801.82
Cesc FabregasMidfielderChelsea1.150.190.46081.8
Massadio HaidaraDefenderNewcastle0.350.051.39841.8
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford0.610.061.12681.79
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool0.370.031.37921.78
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool0.370.031.37921.78
Chancel MbembaDefenderNewcastle0.360.031.39841.78
DeAndre YedlinDefenderNewcastle0.350.031.39841.77
Matt RitchieMidfielderNewcastle1.190.20.34961.75
BrunoDefenderBrighton0.270.021.43881.74
Marcus RashfordForwardManchester United1.390.3401.73
Liam RoseniorDefenderBrighton0.260.021.43881.72
Gaetan BongDefenderBrighton0.250.021.43881.71
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford0.540.041.12681.71
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford0.530.041.12681.7
Leroy FerMidfielderSwansea1.150.20.35081.7
Dwight GayleForwardNewcastle1.360.3301.69
Michael HefeleDefenderHuddersfield0.460.031.20121.69
Younes KaboulDefenderWatford0.520.041.12681.69
Scott ArfieldMidfielderBurnley1.070.180.43471.69
Sam McQueenDefenderSouthampton0.70.080.88681.67
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield0.440.031.20121.67
Jeff HendrickMidfielderBurnley1.050.180.43471.67
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford0.50.041.12681.67
Jesus GamezDefenderNewcastle0.240.021.39841.66
Jamie MurphyMidfielderBrighton1.110.190.35971.66
Sam VokesForwardBurnley1.340.3201.66
Wayne RoutledgeMidfielderSwansea1.120.170.35081.65
Jordan AyewForwardSwansea1.320.3201.65
Moussa SissokoMidfielderSpurs1.070.160.41491.64
Johann Berg GudmundssonMidfielderBurnley1.050.150.43471.64
Fabian DelphMidfielderMan City0.940.10.58471.63
Riyad MahrezMidfielderLeicester1.20.20.21.6
Michail AntonioMidfielderWest Ham1.230.210.16391.6
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield0.340.031.20121.57
Glenn MurrayForwardBrighton1.280.2901.57
Marouane FellainiMidfielderManchester United0.980.120.45451.56
Christian AtsuMidfielderNewcastle1.060.160.34961.56
Islam SlimaniForwardLeicester1.270.2901.56
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford1.280.2901.56
Isaac SuccessMidfielderWatford1.110.170.28171.56
Martin CranieDefenderHuddersfield0.310.041.20121.55
FernandinhoMidfielderMan City0.870.090.58471.55
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderLiverpool1.050.140.34481.54
Jiri SkalakMidfielderBrighton1.030.140.35971.54
Andre AyewMidfielderWest Ham1.180.190.16391.53
Ashley BarnesForwardBurnley1.240.2801.53
Luciano NarsinghMidfielderSwansea1.030.150.35081.53
Elias KachungaMidfielderHuddersfield1.070.150.30031.52
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield0.290.021.20121.52
Kelechi IheanachoForwardLeicester1.250.2801.52
Virgil van DijkDefenderSouthampton0.580.050.88681.51
Daniel BarlaserMidfielderNewcastle10.150.34961.5
Tomer HemedForwardBrighton1.230.2701.5
Marko GrujicMidfielderLiverpool10.140.34481.49
Dusan TadicMidfielderSouthampton1.070.160.22171.46
Nathan RedmondMidfielderSouthampton1.050.170.22171.44
Harry WinksMidfielderSpurs0.910.110.41491.44
Manuel LanziniMidfielderWest Ham1.070.190.16391.43
Joe LolleyMidfielderHuddersfield0.990.140.30031.43
Solly MarchMidfielderBrighton0.940.130.35971.43
Robert HuthDefenderLeicester0.570.050.81.42
Julien NgoyMidfielderStoke1.080.160.18861.42
Stefano OkakaForwardWatford1.160.2601.42
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford0.990.150.28171.42
Granit XhakaMidfielderArsenal0.840.10.47841.42
Harry MaguireDefenderLeicester0.560.050.81.41
Jeremy PiedDefenderSouthampton0.460.050.88681.4
Charlie AustinForwardSouthampton1.160.2401.4
Kasey PalmerMidfielderHuddersfield0.930.170.30031.4
Andy CarrollForwardWest Ham1.150.2401.39
Manolo GabbiadiniForwardSouthampton1.130.2401.37
Steven DefourMidfielderBurnley0.840.10.43471.37
Shinji OkazakiForwardLeicester1.120.2301.36
Maya YoshidaDefenderSouthampton0.430.030.88681.35
Christian FuchsDefenderLeicester0.510.040.81.35
Leonardo UlloaForwardLeicester1.120.2201.35
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth0.570.040.72721.34
Mousa DembeleMidfielderSpurs0.840.090.41491.34
Tiemoue BakayokoMidfielderChelsea0.770.090.46081.32
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth1.10.2101.31
Mohamed ElnenyMidfielderArsenal0.750.080.47841.31
Ryan BertrandDefenderSouthampton0.380.030.88681.3
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool0.860.10.34481.3
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield0.890.110.30031.3
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool0.840.110.34481.29
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke0.960.140.18861.29
Thibaud VerlindenMidfielderStoke0.940.160.18861.29
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford0.890.120.28171.29
KenedyMidfielderEverton0.760.080.43471.28
Sofiane BoufalMidfielderSouthampton0.930.120.22171.27
Eric DierMidfielderSpurs0.760.090.41491.27
Domingos QuinaMidfielderWest Ham0.950.160.16391.27
Rolando AaronsMidfielderNewcastle0.830.090.34961.27
Daniel DrinkwaterMidfielderLeicester0.90.170.21.27
James McCarthyMidfielderEverton0.710.120.43471.27
Daniel AmarteyDefenderLeicester0.420.030.81.26
Junior StanislasMidfielderBournemouth0.950.120.18181.26
Diafra SakhoForwardWest Ham1.060.201.25
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton0.730.080.43471.25
Ben ChilwellDefenderLeicester0.410.040.81.24
Mohamed DiameMidfielderNewcastle0.80.090.34961.24
Ander HerreraMidfielderManchester United0.710.070.45451.23
Tom CarrollMidfielderSwansea0.780.10.35081.23
Matt TargettDefenderSouthampton0.310.030.88681.22
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke0.440.030.75441.22
Christian BentekeForwardCrystal Palace1.020.1901.21
Yohan BenalouaneDefenderLeicester0.350.050.81.2
Wes MorganDefenderLeicester0.370.030.81.2
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford0.820.10.28171.2
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom1.010.1801.19
Shane LongForwardSouthampton10.1901.19
Kyle ScottMidfielderChelsea0.670.060.46081.19
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke0.890.110.18861.19
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth0.420.030.72721.18
Aaron CresswellDefenderWest Ham0.480.040.65561.18
Jack StephensDefenderSouthampton0.260.020.88681.18
Benik AfobeForwardBournemouth10.1701.18
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke0.380.040.75441.17
Jonjo ShelveyMidfielderNewcastle0.750.070.34961.17
Joe WillockForwardArsenal10.1701.17
Francis CoquelinMidfielderArsenal0.630.070.47841.17
Cedric SoaresDefenderSouthampton0.250.020.88681.16
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke0.340.060.75441.16
Nacer ChadliMidfielderWest Brom0.930.120.11041.16
James Ward-ProwseMidfielderSouthampton0.830.110.22171.16
Ainsley Maitland-NilesMidfielderArsenal0.630.060.47841.16
Declan RiceDefenderWest Ham0.460.030.65561.15
Florin GardosDefenderSouthampton0.2600.88681.15
Peter CrouchForwardStoke0.980.1701.15
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke0.980.1701.15
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth0.380.030.72721.14
Demarai GrayMidfielderLeicester0.830.110.21.14
Ayoze PerezForwardNewcastle0.970.1601.14
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford0.770.090.28171.14
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool0.720.070.34481.13
Aleksander DragovicDefenderLeicester0.30.030.81.12
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke0.330.030.75441.11
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth0.810.10.18181.1
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield0.730.070.30031.1
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke0.810.10.18861.1
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth0.940.1501.09
Muhamed BesicMidfielderEverton0.60.050.43471.09
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth0.310.040.72721.08
Sullay KaikaiMidfielderCrystal Palace0.920.10.06161.08
Mauro ZarateForwardWatford1.08001.08
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton0.60.050.43471.08
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth0.310.030.72721.07
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke0.290.030.75441.07
Josh SimsMidfielderSouthampton0.750.10.22171.07
Dale StephensMidfielderBrighton0.650.060.35971.07
Ashley YoungMidfielderManchester United0.560.040.45451.06
Steve SidwellMidfielderWatford0.7700.28171.05
Winston ReidDefenderWest Ham0.360.030.65561.04
James CollinsDefenderWest Ham0.350.040.65561.04
Danny SimpsonDefenderLeicester0.210.020.81.04
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom0.90.1501.04
Nemanja MaticMidfielderManchester United0.530.040.45451.03
Marc AlbrightonMidfielderLeicester0.740.080.21.03
Gareth McAuleyDefenderWest Brom0.540.040.44161.02
Erik PietersDefenderStoke0.240.020.75441.02
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield0.860.1601.02
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom0.530.040.44161.01
Sam ByramDefenderWest Ham0.310.030.65560.99
Tyrone MingsDefenderBournemouth0.240.020.72720.99
Jose FonteDefenderWest Ham0.30.030.65560.98
James MorrisonMidfielderWest Brom0.770.090.11040.98
NGolo KanteMidfielderChelsea0.490.040.46080.98
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth0.220.020.72720.97
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom0.770.090.11040.97
Jay FultonMidfielderSwansea0.570.050.35080.97
Ashley WestwoodMidfielderBurnley0.50.040.43470.97
Steven DavisMidfielderSouthampton0.650.070.22170.95
Andy KingMidfielderLeicester0.680.070.20.95
Michael CarrickMidfielderManchester United0.460.040.45450.95
Arthur MasuakuDefenderWest Ham0.260.020.65560.94
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth0.690.070.18180.94
Nathan HollandMidfielderWest Ham0.70.080.16390.94
Bakary SakoMidfielderCrystal Palace0.780.090.06160.93
Mark NobleMidfielderWest Ham0.690.070.16390.93
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth0.670.070.18180.92
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield0.570.050.30030.92
Jack ColbackMidfielderNewcastle0.510.060.34960.92
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace0.770.090.06160.91
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom0.720.080.11040.91
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth0.660.070.18180.91
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke0.650.070.18860.91
Angelo OgbonnaDefenderWest Ham0.220.020.65560.9
Cheikhou KouyateMidfielderWest Ham0.660.080.16390.9
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace0.730.080.06160.87
Pierre-Emile HojbjergMidfielderSouthampton0.590.060.22170.87
Isaac HaydenMidfielderNewcastle0.480.040.34960.87
Ben WatsonMidfielderWatford0.540.050.28170.87
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace0.560.050.24640.85
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom0.380.030.44160.85
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom0.660.070.11040.84
Edimilson FernandesMidfielderWest Ham0.560.050.16390.77
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield0.420.050.30030.77
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth0.540.040.18180.76
Scott DannDefenderCrystal Palace0.450.040.24640.74
Wilfred NdidiMidfielderLeicester0.50.040.20.74
Mame Biram DioufForwardStoke0.650.0700.72
Jonathan HoggMidfielderHuddersfield0.360.030.30030.68
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace0.390.030.24640.67
NyomDefenderWest Brom0.210.020.44160.67
Oriol RomeuMidfielderSouthampton0.410.040.22170.67
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth0.450.030.18180.66
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace0.540.050.06160.65
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace0.520.050.06160.63
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth0.40.030.18180.61
Jason PuncheonMidfielderCrystal Palace0.510.040.06160.61
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom0.430.060.11040.6
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom0.450.040.11040.6
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace0.490.040.06160.58
Pedro ObiangMidfielderWest Ham0.380.030.16390.58
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace0.280.030.24640.56
Mamadou SakhoDefenderCrystal Palace0.250.020.24640.52
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace0.240.020.24640.51
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace0.230.020.24640.5
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace0.20.030.24640.48
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom0.310.020.11040.45

Forwards

What has to be accounted for here is that the bookies don’t discount the fact a player is unlikely to start or not, leaving a lot of unlikely players near the top of the list like Fernando Llorente and Olivier Giroud. Gabriel Jesus is likely to be rested this game week, which means the top five strikers are Sergio Aguero, Harry Kane, Alexandre Lacazette, Alvaro Morata and Romelu Lukaku, who’d have guessed it?

Player NamePositionClubAnytime ExpectedTwo or More ExpectedClean Sheet PointsSum Expected
Sergio AgueroForwardMan City2.731.3304.06
Gabriel JesusForwardMan City2.571.1503.72
Harry KaneForwardSpurs2.370.9903.36
Olivier GiroudForwardArsenal2.250.9303.18
Alexandre LacazetteForwardArsenal2.230.8903.13
Alvaro MorataForwardChelsea2.060.7702.83
Fernando LlorenteForwardSpurs2.020.7402.76
Romelu LukakuForwardManchester United1.930.7102.64
Michy BatshuayiForwardChelsea1.830.602.43
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton1.690.502.19
Daniel SturridgeForwardLiverpool1.670.4902.16
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool1.650.4602.11
Sandro RamirezForwardEverton1.610.4502.06
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton1.590.4502.05
Oumar NiasseForwardEverton1.620.4302.05
Danny IngsForwardLiverpool1.590.4402.04
Jamie VardyForwardLeicester1.510.401.91
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool1.450.3801.82
Marcus RashfordForwardManchester United1.390.3401.73
Dwight GayleForwardNewcastle1.360.3301.69
Sam VokesForwardBurnley1.340.3201.66
Jordan AyewForwardSwansea1.320.3201.65
Glenn MurrayForwardBrighton1.280.2901.57
Islam SlimaniForwardLeicester1.270.2901.56
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford1.280.2901.56
Ashley BarnesForwardBurnley1.240.2801.53
Kelechi IheanachoForwardLeicester1.250.2801.52
Tomer HemedForwardBrighton1.230.2701.5
Stefano OkakaForwardWatford1.160.2601.42
Charlie AustinForwardSouthampton1.160.2401.4
Andy CarrollForwardWest Ham1.150.2401.39
Manolo GabbiadiniForwardSouthampton1.130.2401.37
Shinji OkazakiForwardLeicester1.120.2301.36
Leonardo UlloaForwardLeicester1.120.2201.35
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth1.10.2101.31
Diafra SakhoForwardWest Ham1.060.201.25
Christian BentekeForwardCrystal Palace1.020.1901.21
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom1.010.1801.19
Shane LongForwardSouthampton10.1901.19
Benik AfobeForwardBournemouth10.1701.18
Joe WillockForwardArsenal10.1701.17
Peter CrouchForwardStoke0.980.1701.15
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke0.980.1701.15
Ayoze PerezForwardNewcastle0.970.1601.14
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth0.940.1501.09
Mauro ZarateForwardWatford1.08001.08
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom0.90.1501.04
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield0.860.1601.02
Mame Biram DioufForwardStoke0.650.0700.72

Midfielders

Alexis Sanchez is by a distance the most likely scorer from midfield this gameweek, with Dele Alli being the closest. Unlikely starters Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling rank highly alongside City’s other rotation risk Bernardo Silva. Eden Hazard, Mohammed Salah, and Gylfi Sigurdsson are some of the most likely point scorers from midfield. With one of this week’s most transferred in player’s Matt Ritchie only having an expected points tally of 1.75.

Player NamePositionClubAnytime ExpectedTwo or More ExpectedClean Sheet PointsSum Expected
Alexis SanchezMidfielderArsenal2.620.990.47844.09
Dele AlliMidfielderSpurs2.150.670.41493.24
Leroy SaneMidfielderMan City2.080.560.58473.22
Raheem SterlingMidfielderMan City2.040.550.58473.17
Bernardo SilvaMidfielderMan City1.980.520.58473.08
Eden HazardMidfielderChelsea1.990.550.46083
Theo WalcottMidfielderArsenal1.940.50.47842.92
Reiss NelsonMidfielderArsenal1.910.530.47842.92
Son Heung-MinMidfielderSpurs1.950.510.41492.87
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool1.930.520.34482.8
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton1.870.490.43472.8
Kevin De BruyneMidfielderMan City1.80.410.58472.79
Yaya ToureMidfielderMan City1.740.410.58472.73
Brahim DiazMidfielderMan City1.680.380.58472.65
Alex IwobiMidfielderArsenal1.730.440.47842.65
Kevin MirallasMidfielderEverton1.750.430.43472.61
Mesut OzilMidfielderArsenal1.690.430.47842.6
PedroMidfielderChelsea1.70.420.46082.58
Anthony MartialMidfielderManchester United1.710.410.45452.57
Ilkay GundoganMidfielderMan City1.610.350.58472.54
WillianMidfielderChelsea1.620.370.46082.46
Ademola LookmanMidfielderEverton1.630.390.43472.46
Aaron RamseyMidfielderArsenal1.560.340.47842.38
David SilvaMidfielderMan City1.50.280.58472.36
Phil FodenMidfielderMan City1.480.290.58472.36
Christian EriksenMidfielderSpurs1.570.350.41492.33
Henrikh MkhitaryanMidfielderManchester United1.530.330.45452.31
Charly MusondaMidfielderChelsea1.470.340.46082.27
Philippe CoutinhoMidfielderLiverpool1.530.310.34482.19
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool1.490.320.34482.15
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton1.440.270.43472.14
Nikola VlasicMidfielderEverton1.40.280.43472.11
Ahmed MusaMidfielderLeicester1.50.380.22.08
Lazar MarkovicMidfielderLiverpool1.40.310.34482.06
Juan MataMidfielderManchester United1.310.240.45452
Georges-Kevin NkoudouMidfielderSpurs1.310.250.41491.97
Jack WilshereMidfielderArsenal1.250.250.47841.97
Jesse LingardMidfielderManchester United1.260.220.45451.93
Anthony KnockaertMidfielderBrighton1.30.240.35971.9
Ovie EjariaMidfielderLiverpool1.290.250.34481.89
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton1.20.220.43471.86
Robbie BradyMidfielderBurnley1.190.220.43471.84
Aaron LennonMidfielderEverton1.210.190.43471.83
Cesc FabregasMidfielderChelsea1.150.190.46081.8
Matt RitchieMidfielderNewcastle1.190.20.34961.75
Leroy FerMidfielderSwansea1.150.20.35081.7
Scott ArfieldMidfielderBurnley1.070.180.43471.69
Jeff HendrickMidfielderBurnley1.050.180.43471.67
Jamie MurphyMidfielderBrighton1.110.190.35971.66
Wayne RoutledgeMidfielderSwansea1.120.170.35081.65
Moussa SissokoMidfielderSpurs1.070.160.41491.64
Johann Berg GudmundssonMidfielderBurnley1.050.150.43471.64
Fabian DelphMidfielderMan City0.940.10.58471.63
Riyad MahrezMidfielderLeicester1.20.20.21.6
Michail AntonioMidfielderWest Ham1.230.210.16391.6
Marouane FellainiMidfielderManchester United0.980.120.45451.56
Christian AtsuMidfielderNewcastle1.060.160.34961.56
Isaac SuccessMidfielderWatford1.110.170.28171.56
FernandinhoMidfielderMan City0.870.090.58471.55
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderLiverpool1.050.140.34481.54
Jiri SkalakMidfielderBrighton1.030.140.35971.54
Andre AyewMidfielderWest Ham1.180.190.16391.53
Luciano NarsinghMidfielderSwansea1.030.150.35081.53
Elias KachungaMidfielderHuddersfield1.070.150.30031.52
Daniel BarlaserMidfielderNewcastle10.150.34961.5
Marko GrujicMidfielderLiverpool10.140.34481.49
Dusan TadicMidfielderSouthampton1.070.160.22171.46
Nathan RedmondMidfielderSouthampton1.050.170.22171.44
Harry WinksMidfielderSpurs0.910.110.41491.44
Manuel LanziniMidfielderWest Ham1.070.190.16391.43
Joe LolleyMidfielderHuddersfield0.990.140.30031.43
Solly MarchMidfielderBrighton0.940.130.35971.43
Julien NgoyMidfielderStoke1.080.160.18861.42
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford0.990.150.28171.42
Granit XhakaMidfielderArsenal0.840.10.47841.42
Kasey PalmerMidfielderHuddersfield0.930.170.30031.4
Steven DefourMidfielderBurnley0.840.10.43471.37
Mousa DembeleMidfielderSpurs0.840.090.41491.34
Tiemoue BakayokoMidfielderChelsea0.770.090.46081.32
Mohamed ElnenyMidfielderArsenal0.750.080.47841.31
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool0.860.10.34481.3
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield0.890.110.30031.3
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool0.840.110.34481.29
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke0.960.140.18861.29
Thibaud VerlindenMidfielderStoke0.940.160.18861.29
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford0.890.120.28171.29
KenedyMidfielderEverton0.760.080.43471.28
Sofiane BoufalMidfielderSouthampton0.930.120.22171.27
Eric DierMidfielderSpurs0.760.090.41491.27
Domingos QuinaMidfielderWest Ham0.950.160.16391.27
Rolando AaronsMidfielderNewcastle0.830.090.34961.27
Daniel DrinkwaterMidfielderLeicester0.90.170.21.27
James McCarthyMidfielderEverton0.710.120.43471.27
Junior StanislasMidfielderBournemouth0.950.120.18181.26
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton0.730.080.43471.25
Mohamed DiameMidfielderNewcastle0.80.090.34961.24
Ander HerreraMidfielderManchester United0.710.070.45451.23
Tom CarrollMidfielderSwansea0.780.10.35081.23
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford0.820.10.28171.2
Kyle ScottMidfielderChelsea0.670.060.46081.19
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke0.890.110.18861.19
Jonjo ShelveyMidfielderNewcastle0.750.070.34961.17
Francis CoquelinMidfielderArsenal0.630.070.47841.17
Nacer ChadliMidfielderWest Brom0.930.120.11041.16
James Ward-ProwseMidfielderSouthampton0.830.110.22171.16
Ainsley Maitland-NilesMidfielderArsenal0.630.060.47841.16
Demarai GrayMidfielderLeicester0.830.110.21.14
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford0.770.090.28171.14
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool0.720.070.34481.13
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth0.810.10.18181.1
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield0.730.070.30031.1
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke0.810.10.18861.1
Muhamed BesicMidfielderEverton0.60.050.43471.09
Sullay KaikaiMidfielderCrystal Palace0.920.10.06161.08
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton0.60.050.43471.08
Josh SimsMidfielderSouthampton0.750.10.22171.07
Dale StephensMidfielderBrighton0.650.060.35971.07
Ashley YoungMidfielderManchester United0.560.040.45451.06
Steve SidwellMidfielderWatford0.7700.28171.05
Nemanja MaticMidfielderManchester United0.530.040.45451.03
Marc AlbrightonMidfielderLeicester0.740.080.21.03
James MorrisonMidfielderWest Brom0.770.090.11040.98
NGolo KanteMidfielderChelsea0.490.040.46080.98
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom0.770.090.11040.97
Jay FultonMidfielderSwansea0.570.050.35080.97
Ashley WestwoodMidfielderBurnley0.50.040.43470.97
Steven DavisMidfielderSouthampton0.650.070.22170.95
Andy KingMidfielderLeicester0.680.070.20.95
Michael CarrickMidfielderManchester United0.460.040.45450.95
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth0.690.070.18180.94
Nathan HollandMidfielderWest Ham0.70.080.16390.94
Bakary SakoMidfielderCrystal Palace0.780.090.06160.93
Mark NobleMidfielderWest Ham0.690.070.16390.93
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth0.670.070.18180.92
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield0.570.050.30030.92
Jack ColbackMidfielderNewcastle0.510.060.34960.92
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace0.770.090.06160.91
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom0.720.080.11040.91
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth0.660.070.18180.91
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke0.650.070.18860.91
Cheikhou KouyateMidfielderWest Ham0.660.080.16390.9
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace0.730.080.06160.87
Pierre-Emile HojbjergMidfielderSouthampton0.590.060.22170.87
Isaac HaydenMidfielderNewcastle0.480.040.34960.87
Ben WatsonMidfielderWatford0.540.050.28170.87
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom0.660.070.11040.84
Edimilson FernandesMidfielderWest Ham0.560.050.16390.77
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield0.420.050.30030.77
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth0.540.040.18180.76
Wilfred NdidiMidfielderLeicester0.50.040.20.74
Jonathan HoggMidfielderHuddersfield0.360.030.30030.68
Oriol RomeuMidfielderSouthampton0.410.040.22170.67
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth0.450.030.18180.66
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace0.540.050.06160.65
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace0.520.050.06160.63
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth0.40.030.18180.61
Jason PuncheonMidfielderCrystal Palace0.510.040.06160.61
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom0.430.060.11040.6
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom0.450.040.11040.6
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace0.490.040.06160.58
Pedro ObiangMidfielderWest Ham0.380.030.16390.58
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom0.310.020.11040.45

Defenders

Tosin Adarabioyo is another case of the bookies not pricing a player dependent on his chance of starting, he won’t start for City this week, and is even unlikely to make the bench. The top scoring defenders this week are all Man City defenders, with the majority of the top 10 being City players bar Marcos Alonso and Leighton Baines. It’s hard to know which City players are nailed on, but Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker, and Ederson are the only players who will play most weeks and risk little rotation when fit. Outside of the top 10 players Victor Moses, Laurent Koscielny and Antonio Valencia all rank highly.

Player NamePositionClubAnytime ExpectedTwo or More ExpectedClean Sheet PointsSum Expected
Tosin AdarabioyoDefenderMan City0.960.132.33883.43
Marcos AlonsoDefenderChelsea1.230.161.84323.23
Vincent KompanyDefenderMan City0.750.072.33883.15
DaniloDefenderMan City0.720.052.33883.11
Nicolas OtamendiDefenderMan City0.70.052.33883.09
Kyle WalkerDefenderMan City0.670.052.33883.06
John StonesDefenderMan City0.660.052.33883.05
Eliaquim MangalaDefenderMan City0.570.042.33882.95
Benjamin MendyDefenderMan City0.520.042.33882.9
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton0.950.111.73882.8
Laurent KoscielnyDefenderArsenal0.790.081.91362.79
Victor MosesDefenderChelsea0.80.071.84322.72
Sead KolasinacDefenderArsenal0.730.071.91362.72
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool1.170.141.37922.69
Hector BellerinDefenderArsenal0.690.061.91362.66
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton0.810.081.73882.63
Shkodran MustafiDefenderArsenal0.650.051.91362.62
Gary CahillDefenderChelsea0.690.061.84322.59
Per MertesackerDefenderArsenal0.610.051.91362.57
Jake Clarke-SalterDefenderChelsea0.620.071.84322.54
Rob HoldingDefenderArsenal0.580.041.91362.54
Calum ChambersDefenderArsenal0.580.041.91362.54
Nacho MonrealDefenderArsenal0.510.041.91362.46
Andreas ChristensenDefenderChelsea0.560.041.84322.45
Axel TuanzebeDefenderManchester United0.560.051.8182.43
Toby AlderweireldDefenderSpurs0.70.061.65962.42
Davide ZappacostaDefenderChelsea0.540.041.84322.42
Antonio ValenciaDefenderManchester United0.520.041.8182.38
Davinson SanchezDefenderSpurs0.660.051.65962.37
Chris SmallingDefenderManchester United0.490.041.8182.35
Serge AurierDefenderSpurs0.630.051.65962.34
Alfie MawsonDefenderSwansea0.850.091.40322.34
Antonio RudigerDefenderChelsea0.440.041.84322.32
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton0.550.041.73882.32
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool0.840.091.37922.31
Daley BlindDefenderManchester United0.440.031.8182.29
Phil JonesDefenderManchester United0.440.031.8182.29
Ashley WilliamsDefenderEverton0.510.041.73882.28
James TarkowskiDefenderBurnley0.480.041.73882.26
Ben DaviesDefenderSpurs0.550.041.65962.25
Eric BaillyDefenderManchester United0.40.031.8182.25
Victor LindelofDefenderManchester United0.40.031.8182.25
Cesar AzpilicuetaDefenderChelsea0.350.031.84322.23
Jan VertonghenDefenderSpurs0.510.041.65962.21
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton0.440.031.73882.21
Stephen WardDefenderBurnley0.430.031.73882.21
Luke ShawDefenderManchester United0.340.031.8182.19
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton0.420.031.73882.19
Jonjoe KennyDefenderEverton0.420.031.73882.19
Jon FlanaganDefenderBurnley0.40.041.73882.18
Ben MeeDefenderBurnley0.410.031.73882.18
Kieran TrippierDefenderSpurs0.470.041.65962.17
Matteo DarmianDefenderManchester United0.330.031.8182.17
Kevin LongDefenderBurnley0.390.031.73882.16
Juan FoythDefenderSpurs0.450.031.65962.15
Kyle Walker-PetersDefenderSpurs0.460.031.65962.15
Matthew LowtonDefenderBurnley0.360.031.73882.12
Jordan WilliamsDefenderLiverpool0.670.061.37922.11
Lewis DunkDefenderBrighton0.590.041.43882.07
Shane DuffyDefenderBrighton0.580.041.43882.06
Jamaal LascellesDefenderNewcastle0.60.051.39842.05
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool0.610.051.37922.03
Jamie SterryDefenderNewcastle0.560.071.39842.03
Mike van der HoornDefenderSwansea0.580.041.40322.02
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool0.570.041.37922
Ciaran ClarkDefenderNewcastle0.520.041.39841.96
Leon BrittonDefenderSwansea0.50.041.40321.94
Uwe HunemeierDefenderBrighton0.460.031.43881.93
Paul DummettDefenderNewcastle0.450.051.39841.9
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool0.460.041.37921.87
Angel RangelDefenderSwansea0.430.031.40321.87
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool0.440.041.37921.86
Connor GoldsonDefenderBrighton0.390.031.43881.86
Jon FlanaganDefenderLiverpool0.40.041.37921.82
Massadio HaidaraDefenderNewcastle0.350.051.39841.8
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford0.610.061.12681.79
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool0.370.031.37921.78
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool0.370.031.37921.78
Chancel MbembaDefenderNewcastle0.360.031.39841.78
DeAndre YedlinDefenderNewcastle0.350.031.39841.77
BrunoDefenderBrighton0.270.021.43881.74
Liam RoseniorDefenderBrighton0.260.021.43881.72
Gaetan BongDefenderBrighton0.250.021.43881.71
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford0.540.041.12681.71
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford0.530.041.12681.7
Michael HefeleDefenderHuddersfield0.460.031.20121.69
Younes KaboulDefenderWatford0.520.041.12681.69
Sam McQueenDefenderSouthampton0.70.080.88681.67
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield0.440.031.20121.67
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford0.50.041.12681.67
Jesus GamezDefenderNewcastle0.240.021.39841.66
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield0.340.031.20121.57
Martin CranieDefenderHuddersfield0.310.041.20121.55
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield0.290.021.20121.52
Virgil van DijkDefenderSouthampton0.580.050.88681.51
Robert HuthDefenderLeicester0.570.050.81.42
Harry MaguireDefenderLeicester0.560.050.81.41
Jeremy PiedDefenderSouthampton0.460.050.88681.4
Maya YoshidaDefenderSouthampton0.430.030.88681.35
Christian FuchsDefenderLeicester0.510.040.81.35
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth0.570.040.72721.34
Ryan BertrandDefenderSouthampton0.380.030.88681.3
Daniel AmarteyDefenderLeicester0.420.030.81.26
Ben ChilwellDefenderLeicester0.410.040.81.24
Matt TargettDefenderSouthampton0.310.030.88681.22
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke0.440.030.75441.22
Yohan BenalouaneDefenderLeicester0.350.050.81.2
Wes MorganDefenderLeicester0.370.030.81.2
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth0.420.030.72721.18
Aaron CresswellDefenderWest Ham0.480.040.65561.18
Jack StephensDefenderSouthampton0.260.020.88681.18
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke0.380.040.75441.17
Cedric SoaresDefenderSouthampton0.250.020.88681.16
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke0.340.060.75441.16
Declan RiceDefenderWest Ham0.460.030.65561.15
Florin GardosDefenderSouthampton0.2600.88681.15
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth0.380.030.72721.14
Aleksander DragovicDefenderLeicester0.30.030.81.12
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke0.330.030.75441.11
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth0.310.040.72721.08
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth0.310.030.72721.07
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke0.290.030.75441.07
Winston ReidDefenderWest Ham0.360.030.65561.04
James CollinsDefenderWest Ham0.350.040.65561.04
Danny SimpsonDefenderLeicester0.210.020.81.04
Gareth McAuleyDefenderWest Brom0.540.040.44161.02
Erik PietersDefenderStoke0.240.020.75441.02
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom0.530.040.44161.01
Sam ByramDefenderWest Ham0.310.030.65560.99
Tyrone MingsDefenderBournemouth0.240.020.72720.99
Jose FonteDefenderWest Ham0.30.030.65560.98
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth0.220.020.72720.97
Arthur MasuakuDefenderWest Ham0.260.020.65560.94
Angelo OgbonnaDefenderWest Ham0.220.020.65560.9
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace0.560.050.24640.85
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom0.380.030.44160.85
Scott DannDefenderCrystal Palace0.450.040.24640.74
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace0.390.030.24640.67
NyomDefenderWest Brom0.210.020.44160.67
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace0.280.030.24640.56
Mamadou SakhoDefenderCrystal Palace0.250.020.24640.52
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace0.240.020.24640.51
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace0.230.020.24640.5
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace0.20.030.24640.48
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5 comments on “Expected Points GW6 – Odds On #FPL”

    1. I’m in work til 5.30 so will be posting it soon after. Wildcard this week so a lot of planning is going into it. With even some late swaps potentially. Need to find the news

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