Cleansheet Probabilities – Gameweek 6 #FPL

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It’s absolutely no surprise to anybody that Manchester City top this weeks table. City have a 58.47% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Crystal Palace who have failed to score in the Premier League all season long, and bringing in renowned old man Roy Hodgson is unlikely to change their fortunes any time soon. With Palace’s fixture list looking scarier than Penneywise the Clown in IT, Hodgson’s stint may be more forgettable than his reign as the England manager.

Besides Man City, there is no other side this game week which are more likely to a keep a clean sheet, than they are to concede. With the sum of all expectancies equalling only 6.17 clean sheets.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Manchester City58.47%1.711.8
Arsenal47.84%2.092.15
Chelsea46.08%2.172.25
Manchester United45.45%2.22.3
Burnley43.47%2.32.4
Everton43.47%2.32.4
Tottenham Hotspur41.49%2.412.5
Brighton35.97%2.782.88
Swansea35.08%2.853
Liverpool34.48%2.93
Newcastle34.96%2.863
Huddersfield30.03%3.333.5
Southampton22.17%4.514.75
Leicester20%55.25
Stoke18.86%5.35.6
Bournemouth18.18%5.56
West Ham16.39%6.16.5
West Brom11.04%9.0510
Watford28.17%3.553.75
Crystal Palace6.16%16.2219.5

DO’S

Manchester City being the obvious choice due to topping the table this week. It’ll be a struggle for Crystal Palace to break down this defense. Some of the most likely starters this week include sick note Vincent Kompany, Benjamin Mendy, and Kyle Walker, all of which are likely to score highly against Crystal Palace. If Palace attackers failed to score against Liverpool, you can tell they’re lacking massively going forward.

It’s pretty close between 2nd and 8th on this weeks table. Arsenal take second place with a 47.84% chance of keeping a clean sheet, while Spurs are in 8th place with a 41.49% chance. Kolasinac owners will be happy that he has such a high chance of keeping a clean sheet. The Bosnian has looked very impressive lately, and is almost as wide as he is tall, and looks to be a better attacking threat than Bellerin so far. I think Bellerin’s awful choices in haircuts make him a tough choice, let alone his steep price.

Everton’s good run of fixtures finally starts so everybody should keep a close eye on them this week. They’ve a 43.47% chance to keep a clean sheet against a Bournemouth side struggling for goals. Michael Keane is the most likely starter with the two golden oldies both rotating alongside him, while there is no nailed on right back, and Baines needs a walking stick at this stage. Rooney will also be more likely to be penalty taker than Baines, which makes him almost an obsolete entity right now.

It goes without saying that a Manchester United defender has been a must so far this season. Eric Bailly and  Antonio Valencia have both scored already this season and the Red Devils have kept 4 clean sheets out of 5 games. They’ve 45.45% chance of keeping a clean sheet. If Gabbiadini starts, it should be far far higher.

DONT’S

West Brom only have a 11.04% chance of keeping a clean sheet and with Hegazi being a superstar in the first few game weeks, it’s time to bench him and any other West Brom defenders you may own. They come up against an Arsenal side which is likely to start key players and will be without a donkey shaped hole in Danny Welbeck, which only makes Arsenal’s chances of scoring even higher. Alexis should be restored to the starting XI, and Lacazette could run riot against a soon to be pension West Brom side. The last time West Brom kept a clean sheet against Arsenal was in 1985. Back then a dodgy mullet and a filthy moustache were common place, better times.

It goes without saying, to avoid all Crystal Palace defenders and players like the plague. The Eagles are a mere 6.16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, and with the form Aguero is in, they’re lucky it’s not 0.01%. There really isn’t much to be said about Palace, which hasn’t been said before, but after managing to beat Huddersfield in the cup, with a clean sheet, Palace fans would have hoped for an easier fixture than Man City to build momentum on. Fortunately for Palace they have Manchester United the week after, and Chelsea the week after that. Could Palace be the first side to go 8 games without a goal in the Premier League? Its very possible.

Southampton take on Manchester United and have just a 22.17% chance of keeping a clean sheet. The Red Devils have been scoring for fun so far this season and it’s unlikely Yoshida and Co will manage to maintain it when they’re coming up against a side which have managed to win as many games 4-0 this season as Southampton have kept clean sheets.

West Ham come up against Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Mousa Sissoko with the first two of the aforementioned being the reason as to why the Hammers are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against Spurs. With the Hammers only being a 16.39% chance of keeping a clean sheet in game week 6, you’d be best off leaving players like Jose Fonte far away from your team, I would advise Slaven Bilic to do the same.

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