Odds on FPL – GW 5 – Preview

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EDIT: KOMPANY CONFIRMED OUT, MATIP SWAPPED IN WITH FREE HIT

After an appalling 22 point haul last week, we thought long and hard about pulling the plug and going for the wildcard. The international break is normally a poor week for many players, looking retrospectively at the game week this was no different. The average tally was low going by previous week’s, being only 44 points. With our captain choice playing only 15 minutes, one of centre backs being injured, another being back late from Japan and the 5th choice deadwood we were already at a Handicap.

This week looks better. And I say that in confidence, that the team is I’m better condition than last week. So drumroll please…. We have not wildcarded.

 

Rob Elliot — Expected points:  1.47

At 4.0m the Irish stopper has been one of the bargains of season already. This week Elliot has driven his price up from the bargain basement dwelling and risen to 4.1m making him no longer at the cheap price point that many managers would have wanted him at.

Eric Bailly — Expected points: 2.20

Bailly is set to start after sitting out of the champions league tie against Basel midweek. Jose has seemingly created a defensive unit for European football in Chris Smalling and Victor Lindelof, while the pairing of Jones and Bailly play in the league. United are still one of the most likely clean sheets this week according to our research.

EDIT INJURED SWAPPED OUT Vincent Kompany — Expected points: 2.57

The 31-year-old was able to complete an hour on Tuesday and the Citizens are hopeful he will make further progress during the lead up to the fixture. I believe he was rested for the Premier League, and being the captain he should be set to be restored to the starting lineup, and has a high likelihood of keeping a clean sheet.

Joel Matip – — Expected points: 2.71

Joel Matip was swapped in as a last minute transfer to replace the injured Kompany. The easy swap would have been for a Stones or Otamendi. Fraudiola likes to rotate and I’ve no clue who is nailed at City, and for points expectancy this week Matip is quite high, in fact higher than injury Prone Kompany.

Marcos Alonso — Expected points: 2.96

Alonso keeps his position even it if it against quality opposition (lol) in Arsenal. In the most recent London derby he scored a brace against Spurs, who have been immensely better defensively than Arsenal. Could we see the same results this week? Here is hoping!

Ben Davies — Expected points: 2.95

Ben Davies is one of those players who I’ve been wary about signing for god knows how long due to Danny Rose being closer and closer to starting. His underlying stats are fantastic for a full back and is the second highest expected points this week from a defender. Replacing the replaceable Yoshida makes our decision all the easier.

Henrikh Mhkyitaryan — Expected points: 3.00

With Pogba being out injured for United, the reliance of the attacking duties may fall onto the Armenian. Already a creator, will his goal tally improve over the coming weeks? We see potential.

Alexis Sanchez — Expected points: 2.28

Away to Chelsea is never ideal, but as we seen last season Sanchez is fixture proof. Scoring a fantastic goal against Koln showed he hasn’t lost it in the off-season, and with a player with so much pride you’ll always get 100% from him. Easier fixtures than this are coming up soon, and we expect his points to explode.

Dele Alli (C)  Expected points: 4.03

Dele Alli doesn’t play in Europe due to a ban, and boy will that create a fire in his belly which could be fantastic for us. With an expected clean sheet, and a chance of scoring, Dele could be a massive point earner this game week.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek — Expected points: 1.34

Big OOP Ruben could be OOP on the bench with Roy coming in. For 4.5m you can’t ask for much more than minutes on the field.

Romelu Lukaku (VC) — Expected points: 3.28

Romelu Lukaku is nailed on, the focal point of the attack, and you’d be pretty much daft not to have him. One of the best attacking options this week. We have vice captained him.

Manolo Gabbiadini Expected points: 1.80

Manolo may have been utterly useless this season, but against a Palace side which has looked twice as bad as Manolo has looked we expect a decent performance from the Italian. With tougher fixtures coming up, this will be his last Gameweek. 

BENCH:

Tammy Abraham— Expected points: 0.97

Swapped in last week giving us an enabler to bring in Alexis Sanchez, and comes up against Spurs away this week. Very unlikely to score, but the most likely outfielder to play on our bench, makes him the first choice substitute.

Jason Lokilo — Expected points: 1.55

Heathen be gone! Lokilo was an early season punt which didn’t quite pay off, and with Royal Hodgson not knowing was a teenager is for 52 years I fully expect Lokilo to get a grand total of 0 minutes in the Premier League. 

Kevin Long — Expected points: Does it matter (0.74)

Bench fodder. In the wildcard he’ll be swapped out for a 3.9 defender to free up funds or upgraded to a playing 4.4/5. 

Wayne Hennessey — Expected points: 1.26

Hennessey may be more solid under a better defensive manager in Roy Hodgson than Frank de Boer, but not that much can change in one game week for the bookies to change their tune. Hennessey is again the second choice keeper despite being the more expensive of the two. 

Transfers In:

Ben Davies — Expected points: 2.95

The highest scoring defender in the game has some fantastic fixtures coming up, and very well could have made the left back position his own. Swansea, Huddersfield and West Ham, Tottenham coverage is absolutely required. Dele Alli and Ben Davies so far, a Harry Kane shaped hole is still missing.

Joel Matip – — Expected points: 2.71

Joel Matip was swapped in as a last minute transfer to replace the injured Kompany. The easy swap would have been for a Stones or Otamendi. Fraudiola likes to rotate and I’ve no clue who is nailed at City, and for points expectancy this week Matip is quite high, in fact higher than injury Prone Kompany.

Transfers Out:

Maya Yoshida — Expected points: 1.44

Maya will likely start this gameweek, but with 1.1 ITB, and upgrade can be made on a player with a poor away fixture, and with United coming up next, Yoshida is out.

EDIT INJURED SWAPPED OUT Vincent Kompany — Expected points: 2.57

The 31-year-old was able to complete an hour on Tuesday and the Citizens are hopeful he will make further progress during the lead up to the fixture. I believe he was rested for the Premier League, and being the captain he should be set to be restored to the starting lineup, and has a high likelihood of keeping a clean sheet.

In Conclusion:

It was a tough decision this week to not choose the wildcard, with Spurs and Liverpool players being so highly rated this week. Liverpool’s fixtures get worse after this week, while Spurs are getting better and better. Having Dele Alli already helps us on that front due to him essentially being rested for the league due to his ban. A lot of of our under performing players such as Gabbiadini and Vincent Kompany have relatively easy fixtures against Crystal Palace and Watford respectively meaning that a wildcard can be better used next week.

With 14 players actively playing a wildcard is better used when you can barely field a side. Good luck.

Gameweek expected points: 50

[1.47 + 2.2 + 2.71 + 2.96 + 2.95 + 3.00 + 2.28 + 4.03 + 1.34 + 3.28 + 1.80 + 22 (if all 11 players play 60+ mins]

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7 comments on “Odds on FPL – GW 5 – Preview”

  1. I didn’t see this in time either. I ended up playing my wildcard based on the odds presented and yeah, we know how that went down haha. I was 1st in the 3 leagues I’m in but now I’ve dropped to 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

    Help me out with any suggestions?

    This is the team I got in with the wildcard

    Elliot
    Milner
    Alexander-Arnold
    Alonso
    Jones
    Sané
    Son
    Salah
    Martial
    Llorente
    Kane

    Substitutes

    Federici
    Mbemba
    Kachunga
    Afobe

    1. Hi Inka, just getting to your comment now. Llorente, Martial, Son, Alexander Arnold, Milnder, Federici, Afobe and Kachunga aren’t nailed on, your team looks like its in a bit of bother. Try get a few more nailed on players in quick!

  2. Hi Inka, just getting to your comment now. Llorente, Martial, Son, Alexander Arnold, Milnder, Federici, Afobe and Kachunga aren’t nailed on, your team looks like its in a bit of bother. Try get a few more nailed on players in quick!

  3. I only have 1 free transfer 😦 too early for the “free hit”? or should I transfer some players and drop points or perhaps just get the one and hope for the best? HELP!!! haha

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