Cleansheet Probabilities – Gameweek 5 #FPL

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This week gives us no surprises with Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool all up at the top of the table, with all of them being on average odds on to keep a clean sheet. While a Spurs defender and a United defender looks like a sure fire way to get clean sheet points, Liverpool aren’t known for their defensive astuteness and may well surprise a few people.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Tottenham Hotspurs55.86%1.791.89
Manchester United54.94%1.821.88
Liverpool53.76%1.861.99
Manchester City46.51%2.152.25
Bournemouth39.37%2.542.7
West Brom38.61%2.592.7
Newcastle37.03%2.72.8
Southampton35.97%2.782.88
Chelsea35.84%2.792.9
Leicester34.48%2.93
Crystal Palace31.54%3.173.25
West Ham30.33%3.33.4
Stoke29.49%3.393.6
Huddersfield29.32%3.413.75
Brighton27.17%3.683.9
Arsenal17.88%5.596
Everton13.33%7.58
Watford10.89%9.1810.5
Burnley10.63%9.411
Swansea9.48%10.5412

DONT’S

Arsenal are one of the top clubs this week to avoid having only a 17.88% chance of keeping a clean sheet against an in-form Chelsea side. Those of you who like Hector Bellerin for his attacking play style will be hoping he delivers, but it’s unlikely they’ll keep a clean sheet, similar to other players like Kolasinac.

Another week, another tough fixture for Everton. Away to Manchester United this week after a poor display at home to Spurs, they’re just 13.33%  to keep a clean a sheet this week. We all know Lukaku is gonna score against them right? Michael Keane is unlikely to be rewarded by his old club with a clean sheet, and the odds state just that.

Huddersfield may have kept three clean sheets already this season, but against West Ham they failed to deliver. Lowe owners got lucky with him being subbed off just after 60 minutes as he managed to hang on to his clean sheet. With just a 29.32% chance of keeping a clean sheet this week, they take on Leicester City.

The least likely team to keep a clean sheet this week are Swansea which are the only side under 10% to keep a clean sheet, with Renato Sanches‘ debut looking like a player who was more likely to assist the opposition than his own team mates. If the Portuguese prodigy manages to lose possession as much as he did against Newcastle, imagine how a side with competent attacking players will do. Avoid them.

DO’S

Spurs defensive owners will be delighted to see them top the charts with a 55.86% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Against Swansea they could be challenged by a fast and strong front duo, but the north London side are expected to keep a clean sheet, with Alderweireld at the front of the likeliness.

Manchester United are in second place this week with a 54.94% chance. Despite Eric Bailly playing poor against Stoke, many will be hoping this week that Everton fail to score again, after looking hopeless a few times in front of goal. With United heavily rotating defensively in Europe against Basel, its clear that the key defensive partnership between Jones and Bailly will remain.

Newcastle have finally made it higher than 10th place on our clean sheet table! Many owners infuriated with Rob Elliot on their bench the two previous game weeks saw him pick up a whopping 15 points in two weeks. They’ve a 37.03% chance of keeping a clean sheet this week

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