Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 4

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A shock last week for anyone who owned a Tottenham Hotspur defender as they conceded in the 90th minute even though they had the highest chance of keeping a clean sheet. An ever bigger shock was the fact Liverpool managed to keep a clean sheet against a very poor Arsenal side, romping home easy winners, in a tie many expected to have goals for both sides.

Team NameImplied ProbablityAverage OddsMax
Man Utd50.00%22.05
Southampton45.87%2.182.28
West Ham42.19%2.372.45
Arsenal40.81%2.452.58
Burnley39.68%2.522.6
Chelsea39.52%2.532.63
Brighton39.21%2.552.7
Tottenham37.03%2.72.8
Crystal Palace35.33%3.23.35
Swansea35.33%2.832.94
West Brom34.96%2.863
Manchester City29.67%3.373.55
Newcastle28.81%3.473.65
Everton24.81%4.034.2
Huddersfield22.52%4.444.75
Leicester20.66%4.845.1
Watford19.26%5.195.6
Stoke17.30%5.786.2
Liverpool15.82%6.326.6
Bournemouth9.96%10.0411

DONT’S

Bournemouth have the lowest chance of keeping a clean sheet this week at 9.96%, the Gunners will surely be looking to do some damage after an awful performance in Anfield. Those who regretted transferring out Charlie Daniels this week, should not regret doing so, and have brought in Asmir Begovic should really be made aware of the FFMag Cover curse.

Marco Silva’s Watford very unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a Southampton side which are looking like the exact same side as last season. New manager, same team, who’d have guessed it? Heurlho Gomes may be wishing to start his agency role sooner rather than later, with the Brazilian stopper only 19.26% likely to keep a cleanie. Kiko Femenia is expected to drop down into a bench role again, and there is seemingly no nailed on players in the defensive unit bar Gomes. Keep clear.

Despite Liverpool’s shock clean sheet against Arsenal this week their defence is definitely one to swerve. They only have a slim 15.82% chance to keep a clean sheet making them the 2nd least likely side this week.  While many could look to players like Joe Gomez and Trent-Alexander Arnold as cheap options into a strong Liverpool side, you’d be better off ignoring them for now.

Stoke take on top of the league Manchester United and it’s no surprise they have a 17.30% chance of keeping a clean sheet. If the attackers at United keep up their current form it could be  negative numbers for the Stoke defenders. Stoke have invested heavily in central defenders, and have recently announced that ex United youth player Ryan Shawcross has extended his deal with the Potters, its unlikely his old side do him any favours. But, Butland, you say! Ignore him your stutterer.

DO’S

Manchester United are top the leaderboard this week with the highest chance of keeping a clean sheet at 50% away to Stoke. Being top of the table is something United have been for a lot of this season, and the ever presents have been in their backline. Phil Jones has been fantastic and miraculously hasn’t picked up an injury during international duty. For 5.1m he is an absolute steal, and is one of a number of great options into Man United’s defence.

Southampton take on Watford in St Mary’s with a 45.87% chance of keeping a clean sheet , many will be hoping that their Saints defender can do it again having kept 2 clean sheets in 3 games already. There is an air of uncertainty of the starting XI, with Wesley Hoedt and Virgil van Dijk potentially usurping the positions of the solid duo of Stephens and Yoshida. The most nailed on, cheap option is Cedric. If he could cross, and Southampton could finish he would be in every FPL side worth its salt.

Tottenham Hotspur take on Everton this week and have a 37.03% likelihood of keeping a clean sheet. Everton failed to impress against a strong Chelsea team and could be without Striker Wayne Rooney due to personal issues (hangover). New signings Serge Aurier and Davison Sanchez could start for Spurs, but the best value option is Vertongen at 6.0m.

Chelsea managed to keep a clean sheet against Everton and will be looking to keep up such a solid performance against Leicester. They have a 39.52% chance to keep a clean sheet. If Chelsea perform similarly to how Man United did against Leicester, they very well could keep a clean sheet. Marcos Alonso may be the most expensive defender in the game, but playing OOP and getting clean sheets, he is worth his weight in gold at 7.1m. [85kg of gold is EXPENSIVE]

West Ham are a 42.19% chance to keep a clean sheet. A big shock for all considering they’ve been dreadful since the start of the season and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any game. Joe Hart has not had a clean sheet in any competitive game in club football since January. Its a pity he doesn’t come up against Maltese footballers more often. Last week’s loser Jose Fonte could very well have his role reversed should he not have another stinker.

With Manchester United again being one of the most likely sources of a clean sheet, you’d be daft not to have a defender in your side by now. High ownership players such as Amhed Hegazi and Charlie Daniels are unlikely to amass points this week, while the Egyptian is now a massive rotation risk due to Gareth McAuley and Jonny Evans coming back into the fold. Again, good luck, and we hope we have helped you with this information.

 

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