Gameweek 3: Odds On FPL Team

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Another week of FPL, and another number of decisions to make. We’re sitting pretty in the top 0.5%, and with our decisions we hope to move up again for a 3rd consecutive week. Here are our decisions and transfers made this week. Good luck!

Our decisions were made thanks to these two posts:

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/24/goalscorer-probabilities-gameweek-3/

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/23/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-3/

Wayne Hennessey – 4.5m 

The Welsh stopped has a 41.86% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Swansea, making him the 6th most likely keeper to keep a clean sheet in the league. His expected points for this week from keeping a clean sheet are 1.67.

Vincent Kompany – 6.0m

Big Vinnie has a 12.47% chance of scoring this week, which equates to an implied point tally of 0.75 points. City are one of the most likely defensive sides to keep a clean sheet this week, with them a 51.05% chance of keeping a clean sheet away to Bournemouth. To Kompany, this means a 2.04 expected point tally, alongside a 0.75 from his expected goals. , which means the City captain is expected to get 2.79 points this week.

Maya Yoshida – 5.0m

Maya has a 10.02% chance of scoring, an implied point tally of 0.6. Southampton only have a 39.76% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Huddersfield and Yoshida could be rotated for Loedt, but I believe he is more likely to start than Stephens. Yoshi signed a new 3 year contract with Southampton this week, having previously been hesitant to sign due to wanting to be a starter. Pellegrino must have promised him that he will be, which is good for our FPL side. At a 39.76% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Yoshida is expected to amass 1.59 points, alongside a 0.6 point tally for goals, which leaves the Japanese defenders expected points at 2.19.

Eric Bailly – 6.1m

Eric Bailly doesn’t score goals, they said. Well the bookies still think that, with the defender having an 8.38% chance of repeating his feat from last week, which gives him an implied chance of 0.5 points. The Ivorian also has a 55.93% chance of keeping a clean sheet which equates to a 2.24 point tally. Bailly is expected to score 2.74 points this game week.

Marcos Alonso – 7.0m

Last weeks highest scoring player gives a good account for himself this week having a 52.91% chance of keeping a clean sheet, or 2.12 expected points, with expected points for goals at 1.54 due to his 25.69% chance of scoring. Overall his total expected points is 3.66 for this game week, which is the highest expected points for a player.

Dele Alli – 9.5m

Our only signing of the week Dele Alli. The midfielder has the highest expected 47.37% chance of scoring against Burnley, which gives Alli an implied points tally of 2.37 points. 59.14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which means an expected point total of 0.59 points for the clean sheet. If you were to add this to the expected points from goals Dele Alli is the highest expected points scorer in midfield this week with 2.96 points.

Willian – 7.1m

The Brazilian was one of our precarious picks of the week due to Hazard getting closer to starting. With Hazard still expected to make a start after the international break we have kept Willian for this week. 33.79% chance of scoring, implied points of 1.69. They have a 52.91% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which improves Willian’s point expectancy to 2.22.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan – 8.2m

41.39% chance of scoring which equates to a 2.07 in terms of points scored., and with Man United’s solid defense behind him, the Armenian has a 55.93% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Meaning the attacking midfielder has a 2.63 point expectancy this week. The Armenian has averaged 2 assists a game thus far and is a creative

Manolo Gabbiadini – 7.0m

Gabbiadini finally awarded those who trusted him last week with a left footed finish which was smoothly slotted past Joe Hart, he is a 38.49% chance of repeating that feat this week, which is 1.54 implied points.

Sergio Aguero – 11.5m

Aguero has a 62.44% chance of scoring this game week which means that he has an implied point tally of 2.5 points. The striker is the second most likely scorer this week, and was only 0.1 points less likely than Harry Kane, which many will have, and will captain this game week.

Romelu Lukaku – 11.6m

Big Rom has a 59.32% chance of scoring this game week, with a 2.37 expected points from scoring the goal. This makes him the 3rd most likely striker to score this game week behind Harry Kane, and Sergio Aguero. Many will captain him, and could be left disappointed.

Bench:

Rob Elliot – 4.0m

Newcastle has a 32.52% chance of keeping a clean sheet, and after Darlow conceded 3 goals including a late one to Nottingham Forest in the cup, it is likely the Irish keeper keeps his place this game week. With a 35.52% chance of a clean sheet, he is only given an expected point tally of 1.3.

Jason Lokilo – 4.5m

Lokilo played in the cup match midweek and hit the post, a lot of fans were impressed by his skills, set pieces, and direct play, something the de Boer side is missing without Zaha. Crystal Palace has a 41.86% chance of keeping a clean sheet while having a 29.50% chance of scoring. Meaning that if the young Belgian were to start he would be expected to score 1.89 points for goals and a clean sheet.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek – 4.5m

The talented midfielder is set to score one of these weeks, or assist. RLC has a 24.72% chance of scoring, and a 41.86% chance of keeping a clean sheet. 1.65 expected points. He is second choice on our bench behind Lokilo who naturally plays higher up the pitch.

Kevin Long – 4.0m

Kevin Long played a match! In the Carabao Cup, but still, he played a game. Burnley managed to keep a clean sheet and were captained by Tarkowski, the player we hoped would be dropped, so, unfortunately, he still ranks as the 3rd choice centre back by Burnley. If Kevin were to be in contention for a start he’d have an 11.56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, so he well, and truly deserves our 3rd spot on the bench this week.

Transfers out:

Sadio Mane – 9.5m

Sadio Mane only has a 1.94 expected points from goals and a clean sheet chance of 28.99%, which means the in form winger has a 2.23 point expectancy, which is only slightly higher than that of Willian. His replacement Dele Alli is banned for 3 games in Europe so will be rested in the league, while Mane has played every game, will be traveling to Africa for world cup qualifiers, and may very well be rotated. Liverpool also play Man City next week, while Tottenham play Everton. A good transfer out.

Why no Kane, who had the most amount of expected points this week with 2.6? I want to keep 2 free transfers with an international break coming up, and a lot of players expecting to be rotated according to the post below, with our players Willian, Aguero, Bailly, Yoshida all below. Aguero to Kane could be a move next week, and I don’t want to risk an injury to the England international.

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