Goalscorer Probabilities – Gameweek 3

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So we’ve mixed it up this week and have decided to share goal scorer probabilities separate to our team, which will be released tomorrow on the blog. We’ve been working with adding in expected points for strikers dependent on their probability of scoring and multiplying it by their position in FPL. For example, if Romelu Lukaku has a 59.32% chance of scoring, then his expected points would be 0.5932 x 4. Strikers get 4 points, midfielders get 5, and defenders get 6. So our multipliers are all as below. This week’s most likely point scorers from goals are as follows. Some may surprise you.

RankingPlayer NameExpected PointsPositionTeam
1Harry Kane2.6ForwardSpurs
2Sergio Aguero2.5ForwardMan City
3Romelu Lukaku2.37ForwardManchester United
4Dele Alli2.37MidfielderSpurs
5Gabriel Jesus2.26ForwardMan City
6Son Heung-Min2.13MidfielderSpurs
7Henrikh Mkhitaryan2.07MidfielderManchester United
8Anthony Martial2.06MidfielderManchester United
9Alvaro Morata2.05ForwardChelsea
10Leroy Sane2.01MidfielderMan City
11Christian Eriksen1.98MidfielderSpurs
12Eden Hazard1.98MidfielderChelsea
13Bernardo Silva1.96MidfielderMan City
14Sadio Mane1.94MidfieldLiverpool
15Brahim Diaz1.93MidfielderMan City
16Mohamed Salah1.87MidfieldLiverpool
17Raheem Sterling1.84MidfielderMan City
18Michy Batshuayi1.84ForwardChelsea
19Vincent Janssen1.82ForwardSpurs
20Christian Benteke1.81ForwardCrystal Palace
21Pedro1.78MidfielderChelsea
22Kevin De Bruyne1.77MidfielderMan City
23Philippe Coutinho1.76MidfieldLiverpool
24Juan Mata1.75MidfielderManchester United
25Georges-Kevin Nkoudou1.74MidfielderSpurs

If none of these players interest you, you can see the probability of every player this week below.

Don’t forget to check out the previous post on clean sheets, and the likelihood of players keeping them.

Manchester United v Leicester City

Man United look to go into this fixture matching their 4 goal thrashings of West Ham and Swansea, the red devils have been electric thus far with Lukaku, Pogba, and Mkhitaryan all being the standout performers. Leicester City, on the other hand, have been impressive, looking capable of scoring against anyone but Craig Shakespeare’s men would be happy with a mid table finish this season after fearing relegation at a point last year.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Romelu LukakuForwardManchester United59.32%1.691.82.37
Marcus RashfordForwardManchester United42.97%2.332.71.72
Henrikh MkhitaryanMidfielderManchester United41.39%2.422.752.07
Anthony MartialMidfielderManchester United41.30%2.422.82.06
Juan MataMidfielderManchester United34.90%2.873.31.75
Paul PogbaMidfielderManchester United34.65%2.893.31.73
Jesse LingardMidfielderManchester United33.92%2.953.41.7
Jamie VardyForwardLeicester25.18%3.974.41.01
Marouane FellainiMidfielderManchester United25.38%3.944.51.27
Kelechi IheanachoForwardLeicester23.41%4.275.10.94
Ashley YoungMidfielderManchester United19.23%5.25.20.96
Islam SlimaniForwardLeicester20.78%4.815.50.83
Leonardo UlloaForwardLeicester19.00%5.2660.76
Shinji OkazakiForwardLeicester18.73%5.346.50.75
Ahmed MusaMidfielderLeicester18.39%5.446.50.92
Ander HerreraMidfielderManchester United18.10%5.5370.9
Riyad MahrezMidfielderLeicester17.25%5.87.50.86
Harvey BarnesMidfielderLeicester13.33%7.57.50.67
Nemanja MaticMidfielderManchester United14.62%6.8480.73
George ThomasMidfielderLeicester11.76%8.58.50.59
Vicente IborraMidfielderLeicester11.24%8.9100.56
Antonio ValenciaDefenderManchester United11.55%8.66100.69
Demarai GrayMidfielderLeicester13.37%7.48100.67
Michael CarrickMidfielderManchester United11.39%8.78100.57
Marc AlbrightonMidfielderLeicester11.14%8.98110.56
Chris SmallingDefenderManchester United10.85%9.2211.50.65
Daley BlindDefenderManchester United9.33%10.72120.56
Andy KingMidfielderLeicester9.54%10.4812.50.48
Daniel DrinkwaterMidfielderLeicester8.99%11.1214.50.45
Eric BaillyDefenderManchester United8.38%11.93150.5
Phil JonesDefenderManchester United8.14%12.29150.49
Victor LindelofDefenderManchester United8.04%12.43150.48
Josh KnightDefenderLeicester7.04%14.2150.42
Matty JamesDefenderLeicester7.37%13.56160.44
Axel TuanzebeDefenderManchester United7.82%12.79160.47
Luke ShawDefenderManchester United6.25%16160.38
Wilfred NdidiMidfielderLeicester8.45%11.84180.42
Robert HuthDefenderLeicester7.19%13.92180.43
Matteo DarmianDefenderManchester United7.07%14.14180.42
Harry MaguireDefenderLeicester7.66%13.06200.46
Christian FuchsDefenderLeicester5.85%17.08200.35
Daniel AmarteyDefenderLeicester5.26%19.02230.32
Elliott MooreDefenderLeicester4.00%25250.24
Ben ChilwellDefenderLeicester4.90%20.42300.29
Nampalys MendyDefenderLeicester4.80%20.85300.29
Wes MorganDefenderLeicester4.55%22300.27
Yohan BenalouaneDefenderLeicester3.51%28.52360.21
Danny SimpsonDefenderLeicester2.78%36510.17

Romelu Lukaku leads the table with a 59.32% chance of scoring and it’s no surprise considering he’s scored three goals in two games. Paul Pogba was transferred in by 355,864 managers this week and has a 34.65% of making it three goals in three games, while Mkhitaryan was only transferred in by 198,316 managers in comparison, he’s got a 41.39% chance to score, many have been wondering who to sign between the duo this week, and going by this, and the frequency of Henrikh’s assists, it is clear there is only one option. Jamie Vardy is Leicester’s most likely goalscorer with a 25.18% chance of scoring, which would make it 3 in 3, while his attacking partner Shinji Okazaki could also make it 3 in 3, with a less likely 18.73% chance of scoring.

Eric Bailly owners will be hoping for the same again this week, the strong defender has an 8.38% chance to score again this week, while new England call-up Harry Maguire could find the net again with a 7.66% chance of finding the net.

Chelsea v Everton

Chelsea are expected to beat Everton, even if the Toffee’s start new signing Sigurdsson, but Conte’s men might have a hard time against an attacking and in form Everton side.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Alvaro MorataForwardChelsea51.16%1.952.12.05
Michy BatshuayiForwardChelsea45.88%2.182.41.84
Loic RemyForwardChelsea41.17%2.432.551.65
Eden HazardMidfielderChelsea39.59%2.532.881.98
PedroMidfielderChelsea35.65%2.813.11.78
WillianMidfielderChelsea33.79%2.963.31.69
Jeremie BogaMidfielderChelsea32.94%3.043.41.65
Charly MusondaMidfielderChelsea29.09%3.444.11.45
Marcos AlonsoDefenderChelsea25.69%3.894.51.54
Cesc FabregasMidfielderChelsea26.72%3.744.81.34
Ramirez SandroForwardEverton23.23%4.3150.93
Wayne RooneyForwardEverton25.12%3.9851
Dominic Calvert-LewinForwardEverton17.71%5.656.50.71
Gylfi SigurdssonMidfielderEverton20.92%4.786.51.05
Davy KlaassenMidfielderEverton16.46%6.0870.82
Kevin MirallasMidfielderEverton18.09%5.5370.9
Victor MosesDefenderChelsea18.26%5.4871.1
KenedyMidfielderEverton17.69%5.657.50.88
Kyle ScottMidfielderChelsea16.88%5.937.50.84
Ademola LookmanMidfielderEverton16.64%6.0180.83
David LuizDefenderChelsea15.09%6.6380.91
Ross BarkleyMidfielderEverton12.50%880.63
Tiemoue BakayokoMidfielderChelsea16.44%6.0880.82
Aaron LennonMidfielderEverton13.79%7.2590.69
NGolo KanteMidfielderChelsea12.52%7.99100.63
Andreas ChristensenDefenderChelsea11.39%8.7810.50.68
Tom DaviesMidfielderEverton11.97%8.35120.6
Antonio RudigerDefenderChelsea9.49%10.5413.50.57
Fikayo TomoriDefenderChelsea10.18%9.8213.50.61
Leighton BainesDefenderEverton9.43%10.6150.57
Cesar AzpilicuetaDefenderChelsea7.82%12.78170.47
James McCarthyMidfielderEverton8.21%12.17170.41
Morgan SchneiderlinMidfielderEverton7.47%13.39170.37
Muhamed BesicMidfielderEverton6.86%14.58170.34
Idrissa GueyeMidfielderEverton6.46%15.48180.32
Michael KeaneDefenderEverton8.03%12.46210.48
Phil JagielkaDefenderEverton5.42%18.46230.33
Mason HolgateDefenderEverton4.39%22.79290.26
Ashley WilliamsDefenderEverton3.90%25.61360.23
Cuco MartinaDefenderEverton3.58%27.96360.21

Alvaro Morata has a 51.16% chance of scoring this week and grabbing his third goal of the season. His fellow Spaniard Marcos Alonso is as high as a 25.69% chance of scoring, considering his stunning free kicks and such attacking play style, owners will be hoping he gets his third goal this season. With Conte saying that he saw his full backs, more as wingers, having an out of position winger with a chance of a clean sheet is a fantastic option.

Wayne Rooney has started off this season extremely well scoring two goals in two games, but he’s as low as 25.12% as a striker and could struggle against a packed Chelsea defence.

West Ham v Newcastle

Javier Hernandez (36.34%) is most likely to score in what could to be an early ‘six pointer’. Javier scored a brace last week but West Ham failed to get any points, something which Chicharito will hope won’t become the norm for him this season.

Card magnet Aleksandar Mitrovic is top of the table as Newcastle’s most likely goal scorer at 35.16%. It took him just three minutes to open the scoring against Nottingham midweek, but he’s unlikely to start instead of Dwight Gayle (38.05%).

Rolando Aarons is only owned by 0.3% managers and is £4.5M the young winger started midweek and got an assist and a goal. He’s 21.50% to score his first premier league goal and could surely be considered an option in the future.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Javier HernandezForwardWest Ham36.34%2.7531.45
Dwight GayleForwardNewcastle38.05%2.6331.52
JoseluForwardNewcastle34.75%2.883.11.39
Aleksandar MitrovicForwardNewcastle35.16%2.843.11.41
Andy CarrollForwardWest Ham34.75%2.883.11.39
Siem de JongMidfielderNewcastle28.57%3.53.551.43
Ayoze PerezForwardNewcastle30.61%3.273.61.22
Diafra SakhoForwardWest Ham30.39%3.293.61.22
Andre AyewMidfielderWest Ham27.30%3.6641.36
Daryl MurphyMidfielderNewcastle27.67%3.6141.38
Matt RitchieMidfielderNewcastle27.85%3.5941.39
Michail AntonioMidfielderWest Ham28.57%3.54.21.43
Toni MartinezMidfielderWest Ham25.59%3.914.41.28
Manuel LanziniMidfielderWest Ham25.53%3.924.51.28
Christian AtsuMidfielderNewcastle23.99%4.174.51.2
Domingos QuinaMidfielderWest Ham20.88%4.795.251.04
Robert SnodgrassMidfielderWest Ham21.59%4.635.251.08
Sead HaksabanovicMidfielderWest Ham20.70%4.835.251.03
Rolando AaronsMidfielderNewcastle21.50%4.6561.07
Mohamed DiameMidfielderNewcastle20.19%4.9561.01
Nathan HollandMidfielderWest Ham15.63%6.46.50.78
Henri SaivetMidfielderNewcastle18.63%5.3770.93
Mark NobleMidfielderWest Ham17.37%5.7670.87
Cheikhou KouyateMidfielderWest Ham16.17%6.1880.81
Edimilson FernandesMidfielderWest Ham15.69%6.3880.78
Moses MakasiMidfielderWest Ham12.66%7.980.63
Jack ColbackMidfielderNewcastle12.90%7.758.50.65
Mikel MerinoMidfielderNewcastle15.50%6.4590.77
Isaac HaydenMidfielderNewcastle12.03%8.32100.6
Ciaran ClarkDefenderNewcastle10.85%9.22120.65
Achraf LazaarDefenderNewcastle8.99%11.13120.54
Florian LejeuneDefenderNewcastle8.93%11.2120.54
Aaron CresswellDefenderWest Ham10.36%9.6512.50.62
Declan RiceDefenderWest Ham10.57%9.46130.63
Jamaal LascellesDefenderNewcastle10.62%9.41130.64
Chancel MbembaDefenderNewcastle8.81%11.35130.53
Sam ByramDefenderWest Ham8.58%11.65130.51
Grant HanleyDefenderNewcastle8.29%12.06130.5
Paul DummettDefenderNewcastle8.00%12.5130.48
DeAndre YedlinDefenderNewcastle8.05%12.42140.48
Winston ReidDefenderWest Ham8.29%12.07150.5
Pedro ObiangMidfielderWest Ham8.22%12.16150.41
Javi ManquilloDefenderNewcastle7.51%13.32160.45
Jesus GamezDefenderNewcastle7.49%13.35160.45
James CollinsDefenderWest Ham7.41%13.5170.44
Jose FonteDefenderWest Ham7.19%13.91170.43
Jamie SterryDefenderNewcastle7.11%14.06170.43
Massadio HaidaraDefenderNewcastle6.95%14.39170.42
Pablo ZabaletaDefenderWest Ham7.21%13.87190.43
Arthur MasuakuDefenderWest Ham6.07%16.48230.36
Angelo OgbonnaDefenderWest Ham5.20%19.22250.31

Liverpool v Arsenal

Liverpool and Arsenal always deliver goals, and with how leaky the two side’s defensive units look it more than likely will be the same this game week. With Sanchez back for Arsenal, and with Liverpool looking rampant against Hoffenheim, this one will more than likely be the match of the weekend.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Roberto FirminoForwardLiverpool39.22%2.552.751.57
Sadio ManeMidfielderLiverpool38.76%2.582.81.94
Daniel SturridgeForwardLiverpool39.51%2.532.881.58
Mohamed SalahMidfielderLiverpool37.42%2.672.91.87
Divock OrigiForwardLiverpool36.97%2.731.48
Dominic SolankeForwardLiverpool36.06%2.7731.44
Philippe CoutinhoMidfielderLiverpool35.12%2.8531.76
Alexandre LacazetteForwardArsenal36.96%2.713.11.48
Olivier GiroudForwardArsenal36.25%2.763.21.45
Alexis SanchezMidfielderArsenal33.08%3.023.51.65
Danny WelbeckForwardArsenal28.97%3.454.51.16
Ryan KentMidfielderLiverpool27.03%3.74.51.35
Ovie EjariaMidfielderLiverpool23.29%4.294.751.16
Ben WoodburnMidfielderLiverpool25.08%3.9951.25
Theo WalcottMidfielderArsenal26.43%3.7851.32
Georginio WijnaldumMidfielderLiverpool21.64%4.625.51.08
Marko GrujicMidfielderLiverpool21.66%4.625.51.08
Mesut OzilMidfielderArsenal22.83%4.385.81.14
Aaron RamseyMidfielderArsenal21.15%4.7361.06
Alex IwobiMidfielderArsenal21.99%4.5561.1
James MilnerDefenderLiverpool21.11%4.7461.27
Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainMidfielderArsenal18.93%5.2870.95
Nathaniel ClyneDefenderLiverpool12.50%880.75
Emre CanMidfielderLiverpool15.84%6.3190.79
Jordan HendersonMidfielderLiverpool15.46%6.4790.77
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDefenderLiverpool13.99%7.1590.84
Granit XhakaMidfielderArsenal14.75%6.78100.74
Mohamed ElnenyMidfielderArsenal11.44%8.7410.80.57
Ainsley Maitland-NilesMidfielderArsenal10.42%9.6110.52
Alberto MorenoDefenderLiverpool9.45%10.58130.57
Andrew RobertsonDefenderLiverpool9.90%10.1130.59
Shkodran MustafiDefenderArsenal8.97%11.15130.54
Dejan LovrenDefenderLiverpool8.53%11.73140.51
Laurent KoscielnyDefenderArsenal9.83%10.17140.59
Joel MatipDefenderLiverpool8.34%11.99150.5
Jon FlanaganDefenderLiverpool7.25%13.8150.43
Francis CoquelinMidfielderArsenal8.60%11.63170.43
Hector BellerinDefenderArsenal8.06%12.4170.48
Kieran GibbsDefenderArsenal6.45%15.5170.39
Nacho MonrealDefenderArsenal7.41%13.5170.44
Per MertesackerDefenderArsenal7.79%12.83170.47
Rob HoldingDefenderArsenal7.37%13.56170.44
Sead KolasinacDefenderArsenal9.04%11.06170.54
Joseph GomezDefenderLiverpool6.40%15.61190.38
Ragnar KlavanDefenderLiverpool6.84%14.63190.41

Roberto Firmino will most likely be the focal point of Liverpool’s attacking trident and has a 39.22% chance of scoring against a poor Arsenal defence. Many expected Sadio Mane to be rotated last week due to a potential injury, the energetic midfielder has played every game in all competitions so far and has a 38.76% chance of scoring, a rotation is coming, and a long international trip to Senegal too, a rest is coming soon.

Arsene Wenger’s comments about Alexis Sanchez could lead people to believe that he could start. He’s got a 33.08% chance of scoring in his first game of the season, many people suffered last season without having Alexis in their side, but with Lacazette (36.96%) being the focal point of the attack this year instead of the Chilean winger, it is unknown how frequently he will score this season. Best off avoiding to see how he settles.

West Brom v Stoke

The battle of the ‘J Rodriguez’s.  Jay Rodriguez has a 33.42% of netting for West Brom in this game, the player has disappointed owners so far, failing to score yet, while Jese Rodriguez opened up the scoring on his premier league debut. He has a 24.65% chance of scoring again.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Hal Robson-KanuForwardWest Brom31.04%3.223.41.24
Salomon RondonForwardWest Brom32.97%3.033.41.32
Jay RodriguezForwardWest Brom33.42%2.993.451.34
Peter CrouchForwardStoke26.29%3.84.21.05
Saido BerahinoForwardStoke26.32%3.84.21.05
Eric Choupo MotingMidfielderStoke25.05%3.994.331.25
Tyler RobertsMidfielderWest Brom23.86%4.194.331.19
Jese RodriguezMidfielderStoke24.65%4.064.51.23
Julien NgoyMidfielderStoke21.41%4.674.751.07
Nacer ChadliMidfielderWest Brom24.21%4.134.751.21
BojanMidfielderStoke22.57%4.4351.13
Matt PhillipsMidfielderWest Brom22.50%4.455.41.12
Xherdan ShaqiriMidfielderStoke20.29%4.935.51.01
Mame Biram DioufForwardStoke18.68%5.3560.75
Thibaud VerlindenMidfielderStoke17.99%5.5660.9
James McCleanMidfielderWest Brom19.88%5.036.50.99
Jonathan LekoMidfielderWest Brom18.32%5.466.50.92
No Goalscorer16.36%6.116.50.98
James MorrisonMidfielderWest Brom16.71%5.9870.84
Ramadan SobhiMidfielderStoke16.54%6.057.50.83
Joe AllenMidfielderStoke14.80%6.7680.74
Charlie AdamMidfielderStoke14.31%6.998.50.72
Chris BruntMidfielderWest Brom16.64%6.018.50.83
Rekeem HarperMidfielderWest Brom13.43%7.4590.67
Jake LivermoreMidfielderWest Brom12.50%89.50.63
Craig DawsonDefenderWest Brom13.19%7.58110.79
Sam FieldMidfielderWest Brom13.09%7.64110.65
Giannelli ImbulaMidfielderStoke8.75%11.4312.50.44
Ahmed HegaziDefenderWest Brom10.15%9.85130.61
Darren FletcherMidfielderStoke10.44%9.58130.52
Gareth BarryMidfielderWest Brom9.88%10.13130.49
Claudio YacobMidfielderWest Brom7.33%13.65160.37
Jonny EvansDefenderWest Brom8.53%11.73160.51
Geoff CameronDefenderStoke7.95%12.58170.48
Kurt ZoumaDefenderStoke7.54%13.27170.45
Ryan ShawcrossDefenderStoke8.51%11.75170.51
Thomas EdwardsDefenderStoke6.21%16.1170.37
Glen JohnsonDefenderStoke6.77%14.77210.41
Josh TymonDefenderStoke6.55%15.27210.39
Bruno Martins IndiDefenderStoke6.04%16.56260.36
Erik PietersDefenderStoke5.64%17.73260.34
Kane WilsonDefenderWest Brom6.16%16.23260.37
Philipp WollscheidDefenderStoke5.71%17.52260.34
NyomDefenderWest Brom4.77%20.96340.29

Ahmed Hegazi appears to be the West Brom defender to have, while also scoring in the opening game of the season, he’s got a 10.15% to score against The Potters.

Swansea v Crystal Palace

This could be an early 6 pointer, with Swansea looking unlikely to replace the only reason they stayed up, and de Boer looking unlikely to change his ethos and formation utilising James Tomkins as a ball playing centre back. This game could go either way, plenty of goals or absolutely none.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Christian BentekeForwardCrystal Palace45.33%2.212.51.813165156
Wilfried ZahaMidfielderCrystal Palace31.45%3.183.251.572327044
Fernando LlorenteForwardSwansea31.42%3.183.41.256783776
Tammy AbrahamForwardSwansea31.06%3.223.51.242236025
Freddie LadapoForwardCrystal Palace31.32%3.193.61.252893913
Courtney Baker-RichardsonForwardSwansea27.87%3.593.651.114982578
Jason LokiloMidfielderCrystal Palace29.50%3.3941.474926254
Sullay KaikaiMidfielderCrystal Palace27.12%3.694.251.355932203
Andros TownsendMidfielderCrystal Palace26.26%3.814.41.312910284
Jordan AyewForwardSwansea24.56%4.074.70.982499232
Oliver McBurnieForwardSwansea24.18%4.145.10.967211529
Yohan CabayeMidfielderCrystal Palace23.26%4.35.51.163128817
Ruben Loftus-CheekMidfielderCrystal Palace24.72%4.045.61.236232861
Lee Chung-yongMidfielderCrystal Palace18.11%5.5260.905660377
Wayne RoutledgeMidfielderCrystal Palace19.72%5.076.10.985804416
Luka MilivojevicMidfielderCrystal Palace18.81%5.326.10.940438872
Leroy FerMidfielderSwansea19.62%5.16.40.980776775
Patrick van AanholtDefenderCrystal Palace19.62%5.16.51.177336277
Jason PuncheonMidfielderCrystal Palace18.17%5.56.50.908746687
Mesa RoqueMidfielderSwansea14.29%770.714285714
Jeffrey SchluppDefenderCrystal Palace16.49%6.067.50.989690722
Aaron Wan-BissakaDefenderCrystal Palace13.33%7.57.50.8
Jonathan WilliamsMidfielderCrystal Palace13.40%7.467.50.669856459
Luciano NarsinghMidfielderSwansea17.63%5.6780.881523272
Jefferson MonteroMidfielderSwansea13.91%7.1980.695652174
James McArthurMidfielderCrystal Palace15.53%6.448.50.776447752
Adam KingMidfielderSwansea11.94%8.388.50.597014925
Tom CarrollMidfielderSwansea12.50%8100.625
Scott DannDefenderCrystal Palace12.42%8.05100.745148771
Alfie MawsonDefenderSwansea11.74%8.52110.704225352
Jay FultonMidfielderSwansea10.44%9.58110.521920668
James TomkinsDefenderCrystal Palace10.13%9.88150.607594937
Roque MesaMidfielderSwansea10.02%9.98150.501113586
Damien DelaneyDefenderCrystal Palace6.84%14.63160.41025641
Timothy Fosu-MensahDefenderCrystal Palace8.51%11.75170.510638298
Kyle BartleyDefenderSwansea8.16%12.25170.489700738
Jairo RiedewaldDefenderCrystal Palace8.03%12.46170.481675393
Joel WardDefenderCrystal Palace8.03%12.46170.481605351
Martin KellyDefenderCrystal Palace7.64%13.08170.458598726
Mike van der HoornDefenderSwansea8.13%12.3190.487804878
Martin OlssonDefenderSwansea7.75%12.9190.465116279
Angel RangelDefenderSwansea6.98%14.33190.418604651
Leon BrittonDefenderSwansea6.87%14.56190.412087912
Federico FernandezDefenderSwansea6.35%15.76210.38071066
Kyle NaughtonDefenderSwansea6.49%15.4230.38961039
Stephen KingsleyDefenderSwansea5.09%19.64230.305555556

Christian Benteke is as high as 45.33% to score his first premier league goal this season. The strong forward missed a great chance last week against Liverpool. Ruben Loftus-Cheek has been playing quite an advanced role for Crystal Palace and we’re sure the goals will be incoming soon for him. He’s got a 24.72% chance of scoring his first goal for Crystal Palace.

Many Fantasy Football managers opted for Tammy Abraham as their cheap third striker and they’ll be hoping he’ll soon deliver the goods. He’s got a 31.06% to score, but there are rumours that Spanish international Fernando Llorente could start for the Swans. He is a 31.42% chance of scoring.

Watford v Brighton

Watford and Brighton both have talented young coaches in Marco Silva and Chris Hughton, and both will be looking for points in an open tie which either side could win. Watford will be struggling to field a left back and could be forced to play a winger out of position due to Holebas’ suspension for being sent off in the cup.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Andre GrayForwardWatford39.08%2.562.81.56
Stefano OkakaForwardWatford36.12%2.773.11.44
Troy DeeneyForwardWatford36.59%2.733.21.46
Glenn MurrayForwardBrighton28.62%3.493.751.14
Tomer HemedForwardBrighton26.64%3.7541.07
Jerome SinclairForwardWatford30.02%3.3341.2
Roberto PereyraMidfielderWatford25.91%3.8641.3
Isaac SuccessMidfielderWatford27.58%3.634.21.38
Aaron ConnollyForwardBrighton24.14%4.144.330.97
James TilleyForwardBrighton23.45%4.274.330.94
de Andrade RicharlisonMidfielderWatford33.17%3.024.51.66
Anthony KnockaertMidfielderBrighton22.70%4.414.751.13
Jose IzquierdoMidfielderBrighton21.42%4.6751.07
Nordin AmrabatMidfielderWatford21.59%4.635.51.08
Soufyan AhannachMidfielderBrighton18.62%5.375.60.93
Etienne CapoueMidfielderWatford22.37%4.475.751.12
Jayson MolumbyMidfielderBrighton16.99%5.8960.85
Abdoulaye DoucoureMidfielderWatford19.18%5.216.10.96
Tom CleverleyMidfielderWatford19.26%5.196.10.96
Richard TowellMidfielderBrighton18.03%5.556.10.9
Jamie MurphyMidfielderBrighton18.98%5.2770.95
Davy PropperMidfielderBrighton16.85%5.9370.84
Jiri SkalakMidfielderBrighton16.84%5.9470.84
Solly MarchMidfielderBrighton17.17%5.837.50.86
Pascal GrossMidfielderBrighton16.83%5.9480.84
Will HughesMidfielderWatford14.86%6.7380.74
Ben WatsonMidfielderWatford12.80%7.8190.64
Daryl JanmaatDefenderWatford11.94%8.3890.72
Nathaniel ChalobahMidfielderWatford15.05%6.6410.50.75
Jose HolebasDefenderWatford10.53%9.5110.63
Dale StephensMidfielderBrighton12.45%8.03110.62
Steve SidwellMidfielderWatford10.98%9.1130.55
Christian KabaseleDefenderWatford11.17%8.96130.67
Lewis DunkDefenderBrighton9.72%10.29130.58
Sebastian ProdlDefenderWatford9.68%10.33130.58
Mathias NormannMidfielderBrighton8.22%12.17130.41
Younes KaboulDefenderWatford8.85%11.3130.53
Shane DuffyDefenderBrighton9.43%10.6140.57
Kiko FemeniaDefenderWatford9.28%10.78150.56
Rohan InceMidfielderWatford7.08%14.13150.35
Miguel BritosDefenderWatford9.18%10.89170.55
Brice Dja DjedjeDefenderWatford7.39%13.53170.44
Craig CathcartDefenderWatford7.52%13.3170.45
Brandon MasonDefenderWatford6.90%14.5170.41
Uwe HunemeierDefenderBrighton7.41%13.5190.44
Connor GoldsonDefenderBrighton6.42%15.59210.38
Adrian MariappaDefenderWatford6.31%15.85210.38
Markus SuttnerDefenderBrighton5.64%17.74260.34
Ales MatejuDefenderBrighton4.78%20.9260.29
Liam RoseniorDefenderBrighton5.32%18.79260.32
Gaetan BongDefenderBrighton4.37%22.87260.26
Saltor BrunoDefenderBrighton5.26%19.02260.32

De Andrade Richarlison(33.17%) has performed well over the last 2 weeks and has been playing out of position up top, while new signing Andre Gray(39.08%) is most likely to score for the Hornets. Watford’s manager was hesitant to say if Troy Deeney would start, and his cup performance definitely didn’t enamour him to his new coach.

Brighton have signed a lot of pacey wingers, but if you’re relying on Tomer Hemed (26.64%) and Glenn Murray (28.62%)for goals, you will struggle in the Premier League. Anthony Knockaert (22.70%) could have an outside chance of scoring, while new signing and incredibly fast Jose Izquierdo (21.42%) could have a debut for the Seagulls.

Bournemouth v Man City

Kyle Walker ruined many City fan’s weeks after being sent off early against Everton, and while Raheem Sterling managed to save their blushes, it is expected that the rebound against a poor and out of sorts Bournemouth side which has struggled to create this season. Man City’s firepower will surely click eventually and could do so against Eddie Howe’s men.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Sergio AgueroForwardMan City62.44%1.61.682.5
Gabriel JesusForwardMan City56.40%1.771.912.26
Leroy SaneMidfielderMan City40.12%2.492.82.01
Bernardo SilvaMidfielderMan City39.20%2.552.951.96
Raheem SterlingMidfielderMan City36.74%2.7231.84
Kevin De BruyneMidfielderMan City35.46%2.823.151.77
Brahim DiazMidfielderMan City38.53%2.63.51.93
Ilkay GundoganMidfielderMan City30.59%3.273.751.53
Yaya ToureMidfielderMan City29.24%3.4241.46
Jermain DefoeForwardBournemouth26.07%3.844.21.04
Joshua KingForwardBournemouth23.83%4.24.50.95
Phil FodenMidfielderMan City28.46%3.514.91.42
Benik AfobeForwardBournemouth22.56%4.4350.9
FernandinhoMidfielderMan City19.05%5.256.250.95
Lys MoussetForwardBournemouth19.69%5.0870.79
David SilvaMidfielderMan City30.21%3.317.51.51
Kyle WalkerDefenderMan City12.80%7.818.50.77
Marc PughMidfielderBournemouth14.59%6.8590.73
DaniloDefenderMan City13.74%7.2890.82
Vincent KompanyDefenderMan City12.47%8.029.50.75
Benjamin MendyDefenderMan City12.45%8.039.50.75
Ryan FraserMidfielderBournemouth12.97%7.71100.65
Jordon IbeMidfielderBournemouth12.60%7.94100.63
John StonesDefenderMan City11.86%8.43110.71
Eliaquim MangalaDefenderMan City10.70%9.35110.64
Emerson HyndmanMidfielderBournemouth12.92%7.74120.65
Dan GoslingMidfielderBournemouth10.63%9.41120.53
Harry ArterMidfielderBournemouth13.19%7.58120.66
Nicolas OtamendiDefenderMan City10.92%9.15120.66
Connor MahoneyMidfielderBournemouth8.70%11.5120.44
Tosin AdarabioyoDefenderMan City9.69%10.32130.58
Andrew SurmanMidfielderBournemouth8.19%12.21150.41
Charlie DanielsDefenderBournemouth9.37%10.67190.56
Nathan AkeDefenderBournemouth8.53%11.72190.51
Steve CookDefenderBournemouth7.36%13.6190.44
Lewis CookMidfielderBournemouth8.08%12.38210.4
Jack SimpsonDefenderBournemouth5.08%19.67210.3
Adam SmithDefenderBournemouth7.73%12.94230.46
Brad SmithDefenderBournemouth5.09%19.66260.31
Tyrone MingsDefenderBournemouth4.78%20.91260.29
Callum WilsonForwardBournemouth4.40%22.75260.18
Simon FrancisDefenderBournemouth4.72%21.2260.28

Sergio Aguero failed to score against Everton last week which was mind-boggling to owners given that he had so many chances. He’s a whopping 62.44% chance to score this week. Gabriel Jesus(56.40%) was substituted early last week due to Kyle Walkers red card, he should be fresh and ready to go against Bournemouth.

If you’re crazy enough to be playing a Bournemouth player this week,  Jermain Defoe has the highest chance of scoring at 26.07%

Southampton v Huddersfield

In what could be seen as the game of the week most people will forget about, Southampton delivered a heart aching, and devastating win over West Ham last week, while newcomers to the Premier League look to continue their 100% record in the division.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Manolo GabbiadiniForwardSouthampton38.49%2.62.881.54
Charlie AustinForwardSouthampton39.64%2.5231.59
Shane LongForwardSouthampton34.50%2.93.41.38
Dusan TadicMidfielderSouthampton29.21%3.423.751.46
Steve MounieForwardHuddersfield29.69%3.373.751.19
Nathan RedmondMidfielderSouthampton29.21%3.4241.46
Sofiane BoufalMidfielderSouthampton27.52%3.6341.38
Laurent DepoitreForwardHuddersfield25.31%3.954.51.01
Collin QuanerForwardHuddersfield24.07%4.154.50.96
Elias KachungaMidfielderHuddersfield23.70%4.224.51.19
Thomas InceMidfielderHuddersfield23.94%4.184.751.2
Josh SimsMidfielderSouthampton20.57%4.8651.03
James Ward-ProwseMidfielderSouthampton23.22%4.315.21.16
Kasey PalmerMidfielderHuddersfield19.24%5.25.750.96
Aaron MooyMidfielderHuddersfield17.65%5.6760.88
Steven DavisMidfielderSouthampton17.03%5.876.50.85
Joe LolleyMidfielderHuddersfield19.46%5.1470.97
Rajiv van La ParraMidfielderHuddersfield19.21%5.2170.96
Mario LeminaMidfielderSouthampton15.57%6.427.50.78
Pierre-Emile HojbjergMidfielderSouthampton14.68%6.8180.73
No Goalscorer16.55%6.048.40.99
Regan BootyMidfielderHuddersfield11.76%8.58.50.59
Sam McQueenDefenderSouthampton17.80%5.62101.07
Jeremy PiedDefenderSouthampton11.24%8.9100.67
Danny WilliamsMidfielderHuddersfield12.22%8.18100.61
Jordy ClasieMidfielderSouthampton10.95%9.13110.55
Philip BillingMidfielderHuddersfield11.01%9.08110.55
Oriol RomeuMidfielderSouthampton11.96%8.36130.6
Maya YoshidaDefenderSouthampton10.02%9.98130.6
Dean WhiteheadMidfielderHuddersfield8.38%11.93130.42
Chris LoweDefenderHuddersfield9.48%10.55150.57
Ryan BertrandDefenderSouthampton8.84%11.31150.53
Michael HefeleDefenderHuddersfield8.17%12.24170.49
Cedric SoaresDefenderSouthampton7.01%14.26170.42
Jack StephensDefenderSouthampton7.16%13.96170.43
Florin GardosDefenderSouthampton5.88%17170.35
Matt TargettDefenderSouthampton6.78%14.75170.41
Christopher SchindlerDefenderHuddersfield6.63%15.09210.4
Jan BednarekDefenderSouthampton6.38%15.67210.38
Tommy SmithDefenderHuddersfield6.11%16.38210.37
Scott MaloneDefenderHuddersfield8.68%11.52260.52
Mathias JorgensenDefenderHuddersfield6.43%15.56260.39

Finally, Manolo Gabbiadini has scored a goal. After missing so many chances in the opening game, the Italian looked fresh and likely to get a goal from his movement, it was a pity to see he isn’t on penalties and he was subbed off, but he is likely to start again. He’s 38.49% to score against Huddersfield. Charlie Austin came off the bench last week and did what he does best. Scored a penalty to win the game. He’s got a 39.64% chance of getting two goals in two games.

It was Steve Mounie the hero for Huddersfield in game-week 1 and he’s got a 29.69% to score this, while he failed to deliver the goods last week it was Aaron Mooy who scored a beautiful curling shot. He’s got a 17.65% to get his second goal in two games.

Spurs v Burnley

In game week 3, Spurs play Burnley and hope to dispel any rumours of a curse being put on them by one of Adebayor’s witch doctor mates. Burnley, on the other hand, will hope that their shocking away form from last season won’t continue but may be waiting for the easier opposition than Tottenham.

Player NamePositionTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsHighest OddsImplied Points
Harry KaneForwardSpurs65.03%1.541.672.6
Dele AlliMidfielderSpurs47.37%2.112.32.37
Vincent JanssenForwardSpurs45.62%2.192.51.82
Son Heung-MinMidfielderSpurs42.59%2.352.62.13
Georges-Kevin NkoudouMidfielderSpurs34.72%2.8831.74
Christian EriksenMidfielderSpurs39.65%2.523.21.98
Moussa SissokoMidfielderSpurs25.91%3.864.51.3
Mousa DembeleMidfielderSpurs23.57%4.2451.18
Harry WinksMidfielderSpurs22.06%4.535.51.1
Chris WoodForwardBurnley21.49%4.655.750.86
Sam VokesForwardBurnley20.94%4.7760.84
Ashley BarnesForwardBurnley18.51%5.46.50.74
Jon WaltersMidfielderBurnley18.00%5.5570.9
Daniel AgyeiForwardBurnley14.29%77.50.57
Victor WanyamaMidfielderSpurs18.02%5.557.50.9
Eric DierMidfielderSpurs14.65%6.8380.73
Davinson SanchezDefenderSpurs12.97%7.719.50.78
Toby AlderweireldDefenderSpurs12.30%8.13100.74
Robbie BradyMidfielderBurnley14.22%7.0310.50.71
Ben DaviesDefenderSpurs12.68%7.8911.50.76
Jan VertonghenDefenderSpurs11.40%8.77120.68
Johann Berg GudmundssonMidfielderBurnley12.22%8.18130.61
Kevin WimmerDefenderSpurs9.05%11.05130.54
Kieran TrippierDefenderSpurs9.72%10.29130.58
Kyle Walker-PetersDefenderSpurs9.47%10.56130.57
No Goalscorer8.70%11.5130.52
Scott ArfieldMidfielderBurnley10.62%9.42130.53
Steven DefourMidfielderBurnley10.22%9.78130.51
Jeff HendrickMidfielderBurnley12.96%7.72140.65
Cameron Carter-VickersDefenderSpurs8.80%11.37150.53
Fredrik UlvestadMidfielderBurnley6.78%14.75170.34
Ashley WestwoodMidfielderBurnley6.98%14.33200.35
Jack CorkMidfielderBurnley7.52%13.3210.38
Jon FlanaganDefenderBurnley4.76%21210.29
James TarkowskiDefenderBurnley5.99%16.7230.36
Kevin LongDefenderBurnley5.18%19.29290.31
Matthew LowtonDefenderBurnley4.36%22.91290.26
Stephen WardDefenderBurnley5.17%19.33290.31
Ben MeeDefenderBurnley5.19%19.26350.31
Charlie TaylorDefenderBurnley4.37%22.87350.26
Phil BardsleyDefenderBurnley4.75%21.04350.29

Harry Kane has caused pain and despair to owners the last two game-weeks. He’s totaled just two points in two games, but he’s this weeks winner! With a 65.03% chance of scoring, he’s got the highest chance of scoring. Failure to deliver goals this week could see many more managers dropping Harry Kane. Kane has already hit the woodwork twice and has been getting off so many shots in and around the box, that you would think its only a matter of time for the striker to score.

Dele Alli is as high as 47.37% to score this week also which makes him the most likely points scorer from midfield alongside his fellow Spurs midfielder, Christian Eriksen, who is now the more expensive midfield partner, and is only a 39.65% chance of scoring. Son Heung-Min could be a fantastic signing with a 42.59% chance of scoring, but may not start for Tottenham. Dele Alli is a must this week.

Sam Vokes was the man to punish Chelsea on the opening day of the season scoring two goals against the London Giants. He’s got a 20.94% chance of scoring against another London Giant this weekend. New signing Chris Wood has a chance of 21.49% to score on his debut, there are better options out there this week if you’re looking for a new signing striker, even if the New Zealand hitman is Burnley’s most likely chance of scoring.

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