Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 3

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Last week there was a total of 7 clean sheets in the Premier League, with the actual results being over the expectancy of 6.31 clean sheets. This week’s Clean Sheet chances differ quite a lot compared to last weeks. Manchester United are the only team to remain in the top 3 most likely teams to keep a clean sheet. While Arsenal have gone from 7th to 16th this week due to their very tough fixture away to Liverpool. 3 of the top 4 sides which are likely to keep clean sheets failed to do so last week,

Team nameImplied ProbabilityAverageMax
Tottenham59.14%1.691.75
Man Utd55.93%1.781.87
Chelsea52.91%1.892
Man City51.05%1.952
Watford42.61%2.342.4
Crystal Palace41.86%2.382.45
Southampton39.76%2.512.6
West Brom39.53%2.532.6
Stoke33.65%2.973.1
Newcastle32.52%3.073.2
Liverpool28.99%3.453.6
Huddersfield28.01%3.573.75
West Ham25.71%3.894
Brighton25.32%3.954.2
Swansea24.25%4.124.33
Arsenal20.73%4.825.2
Everton14.88%6.727
Leicester11.56%8.659.5
Burnley11.56%8.659.5
Bournemouth10.42%9.611

DON’TS

The sum of all probabilities is 650%, which means that more than 6 sides this week are expected to keep clean sheets. Bournemouth (10.42%) are the least likely to keep a clean sheet due to their fixture against Manchester City, Nathan Ake and highly owned Charlie Daniels might well be advised to keep on the bench this week.

Everton (14.88%) are amongst the bottom three again due to their fixture away to Chelsea. Arsenal (20.73%) who failed to keep a clean sheet away to Stoke, travel to Liverpool this week. Leicester (11.56%) managed to keep a clean sheet last week at home to Brighton but this week take on Manchester United who have averaged 4 goals a game week thus far meaning that highly performing Harry Maguire shouldn’t be transferred in..

Highly owned Hector Bellerin, Sead Kolasinac, Leighton Baines and Michael Keane are all likely to not score highly this week.

DO’S

Tottenham(59.14%) lead the table at the top with a huge chance of keeping a clean sheet against Burnley. Manchester United(55.93%) keep their place amongst the big hitters as they take on Leicester. Despite Everton only conceding 1 goal in all competitive matches so far this season, Chelsea(52.91%) still have a great chance of keeping a clean sheet in Stamford Bridge. Watford(42.61%) take on newly promoted Brighton in Vicarage Road, giving them a decent chance to keep a clean sheet.

Highly owned Eric Baily, Marcus Alonso and Ben Davies are all likely to keep a clean sheet this week.

 

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