Fantasy Premier League – Gameweek 2 – Odds On FPL

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Game week one ended with our side managing to amass a total of 79 points. With our Captain Romelu Lukaku scoring a solid 26 points, none too shabby. This week we analyse which players are the best options for transfers, and which of our starting XI are most likely to score points this week. With a potential injury to Sadio Mané causing a late headache, it just goes to show how important it is to leave your options until late when making transfers. We’ll be making a lot of our defensive decisions based off of our recent analysis of players which are most likely to get a clean sheet.

Swansea v Man Utd

Saturday 19th August / 12:30

Rampant Manchester United go to a Siggyless Swansea on match day 2. While Swansea may be £45 million richer, who will create the chances for Tammy Abraham (21.67%) and Fernando Llorente (21.60%)? With Romelu Lukaku showing all of what he was capable of against West Ham, the striker comes up against a Swansea side which was dominated against Southampton, yet somehow managed to keep a clean sheet. Romelu Lukaku, to many a solid captain choice, has a 55.31% chance of scoring against Swansea according to the bookies. Marcus Rashford has been given a 44.30% chance of scoring, while Anthony Martial (40.26%) and our double assist maestro, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, (40.24%) follow suit with figures just slightly above 40%.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Romelu Lukaku55.31%1.812
James Anthony Wilson40.00%2.52.5
Marcus Rashford44.30%2.262.7
Anthony Martial40.26%2.482.88
Henrikh Mkhitaryan40.24%2.492.88
Andreas Pereira29.41%3.43.4
Juan Mata34.06%2.943.4
Jesse Lingard32.75%3.053.6
Paul Pogba29.78%3.364
Scott McTominay24.39%4.14.1
Fernando Llorente21.60%4.635
Tammy Abraham21.67%4.615
Gylfi Sigurdsson18.18%5.55.5
Marouane Fellaini21.48%4.665.5
Jordan Ayew17.98%5.566.5
Oliver McBurnie17.20%5.817
Ander Herrera16.63%6.018
Ki Sung-yueng11.76%8.58.5
Leroy Fer12.94%7.739
Wayne Routledge12.05%8.39
Demetri Mitchell10.00%1010
Nemanja Matic13.11%7.6310
Jefferson Montero9.92%10.08311.5
Luciano Narsingh10.64%9.411.5
Kenji Gorre8.33%1212
Chris Smalling8.89%11.2513
Michael Carrick9.46%10.57513
No Goalscorer9.38%10.6713
Tom Carroll8.75%11.4313
Alfie Mawson8.15%12.2814
Antonio Valencia9.41%10.6314
Daley Blind8.42%11.8815
Jay Fulton7.77%12.8815
Roque Mesa Quevedo7.69%1315
Axel Tuanzebe7.71%12.9817
Victor Nilsson-Lindelof8.70%11.517
Eric Bailly7.10%14.0919
Phil Jones7.12%14.0519
Victor Lindelof7.11%14.0719
Kyle Bartley6.08%16.4521
Martin Olsson6.29%15.921
Matteo Darmian6.19%16.1521
Mike van der Hoorn5.88%1721
Roque Mesa6.86%14.5721
Angel Rangel4.95%20.2126
Leon Britton5.04%19.8526
Federico Fernandez4.44%22.529
Kyle Naughton4.42%22.631
Stephen Kingsley3.80%26.334

Again Manchester United are one of the most likely sources of a clean sheet. While Swansea are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a Manchester United, they did manage to keep on last week. Manchester United though looked more than capable of scoring against a very poor West Ham. With Swansea not likely to get many shots off David de Gea might not be a worthwhile selection choice when you could get the 6.5m Antonio Valencia who has a 9.41% chance of scoring, while cheaper signings like Phil Jones (7.12%), 5.0m, and our Eric Bailly (7.1%), 5.5m, are both less likely goal scorers, but good options to get in.

Bournemouth v Watford

Saturday 19th August / 15:00

Bournemouth host Watford in a tie where sides had contradictory scorelines. Bournemouth is one of the most offensive sides in the league scoring the 7th most goals in the league last season with a tally of 55 goals, an average of 1.45 goals a game, but they still managed to score 0 goals against a resilient West Brom side managed by Tony Pulis. Watford, on the other hand, was one of the lowest-scoring sides in the league last season, only managing 40 goals, slightly over a goal a game. The Wasps managed to provide us with one of the most entertaining games of the weekend snatching a late draw against Liverpool.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Jermain Defoe43.78%2.282.70
Joshua King39.27%2.552.88
Benik Afobe36.93%2.713.10
Lys Mousset32.84%3.043.60
Troy Deeney30.78%3.253.75
Andre Gray30.52%3.283.75
Stefano Okaka28.92%3.464.00
Max Gradel27.10%3.694.00
Richarlison25.82%3.875.00
Roberto Pereyra23.22%4.315.00
Isaac Success23.17%4.326.00
Marc Pugh23.14%4.325.00
Harry Arter21.83%4.586.00
Jordon Ibe20.75%4.827.00
Ryan Fraser20.73%4.827.00
Etienne Capoue19.41%5.157.50
Nordin Amrabat18.88%5.307.00
Tom Cleverley16.57%6.048.00
Abdoulaye Doucoure16.17%6.188.00
Dan Gosling15.66%6.388.00
Will Hughes13.51%7.409.00
Nathan Ake13.30%7.5210.00
Nathaniel Chalobah12.88%7.7611.00
Charlie Daniels12.84%7.7910.00
Andrew Surman12.63%7.9210.00
Lewis Cook12.39%8.0712.00
Adam Smith11.40%8.7711.50
Ben Watson11.40%8.7711.00
Valon Behrami11.11%9.009.00
Christian Kabasele10.77%9.2910.00
Jose Holebas10.73%9.3212.00
Steve Cook9.92%10.0813.00
No Goalscorer9.28%10.7814.00
Daryl Janmaat9.17%10.9012.50
Younes Kaboul8.91%11.2313.00
Sebastian Prodl8.90%11.2413.00
Miguel Britos8.66%11.5417.00
Kiko Femenia8.55%11.7015.00
Baily Cargill8.47%11.8114.00
Simon Francis7.95%12.5815.00
Callum Wilson7.23%13.8317.00
Brad Smith7.22%13.8517.00
Tyrone Mings7.17%13.9417.00
Craig Cathcart6.33%15.8017.00
Brandon Mason5.72%17.4721.00
Adrian Mariappa5.52%18.1221.00

Bournemouth has the 2 most likely scorers in this game with Jermaine Defoe(43.78%) and Bournemouth’s top scorer last season, Joshua King (38.27%), both strikers will be looking to make amends after failing to score in the opening game of the season.

Abdoulaye Doucoure impressed many in his opening game against Liverpool. Equaling his goalscoring tally to last season. It’s no surprise to see him as low as 16.17% to score. Troy Deeney (30.78%) is Watfords most likely option to score. Despite failing to find the back of the net last week.

Whilst many will be looking at Nathan Ake for his defensive abilities, he managed to score 3 goals in 10 games for Bournemouth last season. His chances of scoring are at a 13.30%  and also has a 35.86% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which this week is pretty decent.

Watford will be looking to tighten up their defence this week after leading twice against Liverpool. At £4.5M Britos scored for Watford last week, he’s 8.66% to score anytime this week. Watford only have a 22.26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, don’t bother with him, or any other Watford defenders.

Burnley v West Brom

Saturday 19th August / 15:00

Burnley against West Brom is the fixture nobody will want to watch, with both sides normally offering quite drab and boring football. With Burnley only winning 11 games last season 10 of which were at home, they’ll be looking to maintain that strong home form to ensure they don’t have a relegation battle towards the end of the season. West Brom without defenders Gareth McAuley and Johnny Evans could see them struggle to cope with the Burnley attack.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Sam Vokes32.23%3.103.3
Jay Rodriguez31.40%3.183.55
Salomon Rondon30.61%3.273.75
Jon Walters28.12%3.564
Ashley Barnes27.92%3.584
Hal Robson-Kanu27.29%3.664.33
Daniel Agyei25.82%3.874.5
Nacer Chadli23.67%4.234.7
Robbie Brady21.27%4.706
Matt Phillips20.48%4.886
Johann Berg Gudmundsson20.09%4.986
James McClean19.12%5.237
Scott Arfield18.30%5.467
Jeff Hendrick18.12%5.527.5
Jonathan Leko17.98%5.567
Steven Defour15.67%6.387.5
Chris Brunt15.60%6.418.5
James Morrison15.23%6.567.5
No Goalscorer15.13%6.617.4
Rekeem Harper14.10%7.099
Craig Dawson12.64%7.919.5
Jake Livermore12.53%7.9810
Jack Cork12.22%8.1811
Sam Field11.46%8.7310
Ashley Westwood10.82%9.2413.5
Ahmed Hegazy9.93%10.0711
James Tarkowski8.88%11.2615
Kevin Long8.24%12.1417
Ben Mee7.56%13.2220
Jonny Evans7.16%13.9621
Stephen Ward7.11%14.0621
Phil Bardsley7.05%14.1921
Claudio Yacob6.93%14.4221
Charlie Taylor6.85%14.6021
Matthew Lowton6.61%15.1221
Kane Wilson5.48%18.2429
Nyom4.28%23.3641

Sam Vokes(32.47%) scored a brace against Chelsea last week and it’s no surprise he’s top of the probability table with a 32.23% chance of scoring against the Baggies, last weeks other scorer last week, Stephen Ward, has got a 6.97% chance to bag again this week. Burnley have a  39.05% chance of keeping a clean sheet opposed to  West Brom only having 33.81%. Making Stephen Ward a decent option this week.

Burnley also have Robbie Brady, whilst only being at 22.08% to score, Burnley have a  39.05% of keeping a clean sheet. With Brady being on free kicks and corners he could definitely score, or assist and also has a chance of gaining a clean sheet point.

Our substitute Kevin Long has a 39.05% chance of keeping a clean sheet if he starts, meaning he is first choice substitute this game week.

Last week’s punt for many FPL players was Ahmed Hegazy. The punt played off, and the big Egyptian scored on his Premier League debut, while he has a 33.81% chance of keeping a clean sheet it is unlikely he’ll repeat his 15 point haul again this week, with only an implied probability of 9.93% of scoring a goal.

Leicester v Brighton

Saturday 19th August / 15:00

Jamie Vardy’s Leicester play at home to Premier League new boys Brighton. With Vardy’s impressive opening game performance it’s hard to see him not bring that momentum into Leicesters first home game of the season. Riad Mahrez is still expected to start while Leicester dismiss all talks of links to Roma.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Jamie Vardy46.63%2.142.4
Islam Slimani37.24%2.693.1
Shinji Okazaki34.47%2.903.25
Leonardo Ulloa34.72%2.883.3
Riyad Mahrez30.75%3.253.75
Ahmed Musa28.57%3.504.2
Glenn Murray27.77%3.604.33
Tomer Hemed26.50%3.774.33
Demarai Gray26.01%3.854.8
Anthony Knockaert22.17%4.515.5
Marc Albrighton22.34%4.485.5
Richard Towell16.00%6.256.25
Andy King18.64%5.376.5
Jamie Murphy18.99%5.276.5
Daniel Drinkwater16.27%6.147.5
Jiri Skalak16.97%5.897.5
Solly March15.72%6.367.5
Robert Huth11.76%8.508.5
Wilfred Ndidi14.68%6.818.5
Christian Fuchs11.08%9.0310
Dale Stephens13.25%7.5511
No Goalscorer10.26%9.7511
Elliott Moore8.70%11.5011.5
Daniel Amartey9.83%10.1813
Shane Duffy8.70%11.5014
Ben Chilwell9.41%10.6315
Lewis Dunk9.28%10.7815
Nampalys Mendy9.43%10.6115
Steve Sidwell10.20%9.8015
Wes Morgan8.64%11.5815
Yohan Benalouane7.45%13.4215
Connor Goldson6.73%14.8617
Bruno5.62%17.8021
Uwe Hunemeier7.43%13.4521
Danny Simpson5.15%19.4023
Liam Rosenior5.43%18.4023
Gaetan Bong4.46%22.4226

With Jamie Vardy with the probability to score at 46.67% chance of scoring against Brighton could see him off to a flyer with 3 goals in 2 games. Vardy is one of the most likely scoring forwards this week, and has scored against Arsenal you’d not write off his chance repeating the feat against newcomers Brighton. Riyad Mahrez has a 30.75% of scoring, take into consideration he’s a set piece expert and takes the clubs penalties could see him break his season deadlock.

Glenn Murray (27.77%) and Tomer Hemed (26.50%) are Brighton’s most likely scorers, and last season’s player of the year Anthony Knockaert (22.17%) offers a slight chance of scoring for the Seagulls. Better options elsewhere.

With Brighton conceding 2 against City, and Leicester 4 against City it would be a brave decision to sign either a Leicester or Brighton defender you would think? You would be wrong, with Leicester being the 4th most likely side to keep a clean sheet this week with a 43.31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, while Brighton only has a 20.62% chance.

Robert Huth is the most likely of the defenders to score at 11.76%, but Christian Fuchs (11.08%), who is nailed on, has a chance of an assist, is a better option.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Saturday 19th August / 15:00

Liverpool come into this fixture full of confidence after beating Hoffenheim 2-1 away from home. But since that game, there have been rumours that Emre Can and Sadio Mane are both set to miss this fixture due to injury, rumours which have been denied since, but still play on the mind of the FPL manager’s mind. Mane was instrumental in the win against Hoffenheim and will be key to Liverpool challenging for the top 4 come end of the year. The only thing stopping him from being captain is the potential for him to be rested, or not play the full match.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Daniel Sturridge52.02%1.922.1
Danny Ings47.17%2.122.12
Roberto Firmino50.58%1.982.2
Divock Origi46.79%2.142.3
Mohamed Salah48.38%2.072.3
Sadio Mane48.60%2.062.3
Dominic Solanke45.21%2.212.43
Philippe Coutinho41.47%2.412.75
Ryan Kent34.48%2.903
Lazar Markovic31.75%3.153.15
Ovie Ejaria29.85%3.353.4
Ben Woodburn32.60%3.073.6
Christian Benteke29.18%3.433.75
Sheyi Ojo26.32%3.803.8
Georginio Wijnaldum25.90%3.864.4
Marko Grujic26.44%3.784.4
James Milner26.67%3.754.5
Bakary Sako15.63%6.406.4
Wilfried Zaha20.86%4.796.4
Emre Can20.24%4.946.5
Sullay Kaikai16.33%6.136.5
Yohan Cabaye17.79%5.626.75
Andros Townsend17.38%5.757
Jordan Henderson18.73%5.347
Lee Chung-yong12.29%8.149
Nathaniel Clyne11.11%9.009
Jason Puncheon12.63%7.929.5
Trent Alexander-Arnold13.17%7.599.5
Andrew Robertson12.79%7.8210
Luka Milivojevic11.80%8.4710
Alberto Moreno12.35%8.1011
Patrick van Aanholt10.68%9.3611
Dejan Lovren10.56%9.4711.5
Aaron Wan-Bissaka12.94%7.7312
James McArthur10.41%9.6112
Joel Matip10.33%9.6812
Jon Flanagan8.70%11.5012
Jordan Williams8.51%11.7512
Ragnar Klavan9.16%10.9114
Jeffrey Schlupp8.15%12.2615
Joseph Gomez8.15%12.2617
Scott Dann7.53%13.2817
No Goalscorer6.86%14.5819.5
James Tomkins6.41%15.6123
Joel Ward4.56%21.9426
Martin Kelly4.49%22.2826
Damien Delaney4.05%24.6731

Our Sadio Mane was instrumental in the win against Hoffenheim and will be key to Liverpool challenging for the top 4 come end of the year. He could be a big loss in this fixture due to his high chances of scoring at 48.99%, and Liverpool’s likely clean sheet. Sadio Mane is our vice captain this week.

As said, Liverpool is likely to keep a clean sheet, despite fixture congestion, conceding 3 against Watford, and 1 against Hoffenheim. The Merseysiders are 47.78% likely to keep a clean sheet. Trent Alexander-Arnold (14.57%), back from his goalscoring exploits in the champions league could be a good short-term pick but is unlikely to keep his position once Nathaniel Clyne comes back.

Liverpool will be fearful of Christian Benteke as they know how cynical he can be from set-pieces.  While Christian Benteke only has a 29.12% chance to score many will see this as quite low given how poor Liverpool are defensively.

Crystal Palace only has an 11.85% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which means our bench players Ruben Loftus-Cheek (16.69%) and Jason Lokilo (19.90%) are unlikely to get clean sheets, and it means last week’s starting keeper Wayne Hennesey drops to the bench. Jason Lokilo the takes first spot on the bench due to his more likely chance to score, and could start in Zaha’s absence. A risk is taken.

Southampton v West Ham

Saturday 19th August / 15:00

Southampton had more chances than Manchester United had against West Ham, in their most recent fixture against Swansea, the difference between the two sides was the quality of their attacking options.While Southampton was wasteful in front of goal they looked very comfortable defensively.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Charlie Austin44.98%2.222.5
Manolo Gabbiadini44.84%2.232.5
Shane Long37.90%2.643
Dusan Tadic33.97%2.943.3
Nathan Redmond32.30%3.103.6
Javier Hernandez29.07%3.443.75
Sofiane Boufal29.28%3.424.2
James Ward-Prowse26.27%3.814.35
Diafra Sakho23.84%4.194.5
Marko Arnautovic23.61%4.244.7
Andre Ayew22.34%4.485
Michail Antonio21.89%4.575
Robert Snodgrass18.72%5.346
Mario Lemina18.18%5.506.5
Pierre Hojbjerg17.57%5.696.5
Sead Haksabanovic17.18%5.826.5
Steven Davis18.78%5.336.5
Mark Noble14.59%6.858
Sam McQueen16.08%6.228
Edimilson Fernandes12.68%7.899
Jordy Clasie11.76%8.509.5
Jeremy Pied12.03%8.3111
Oriol Romeu12.43%8.0511.5
Maya Yoshida10.39%9.6312
Ryan Bertrand10.21%9.7912
No Goalscorer10.17%9.8312.5
Jack Stephens9.13%10.9614
Matt Targett8.00%12.5014
Aaron Cresswell9.02%11.0815
Cedric Soares7.83%12.7715
Jan Bednarek7.67%13.0415
Declan Rice6.69%14.9417
Pedro Obiang6.64%15.0518
Winston Reid6.58%15.2118
James Collins6.18%16.1821
Jose Fonte6.04%16.5521
Pablo Zabaleta5.53%18.0923
Sam Byram6.11%16.3823
Arthur Masuaku4.72%21.1729
Angelo Ogbonna4.08%24.5034

Manolo Gabbiadini will be expected to step up against a poor West Ham defence, he has a 44.84% chance to bag, while Charlie Austin has become a slightly more likely scorer with his probability being 44.98%.

West Ham will be looking towards Talisman Javier Hernandez who has a 29.07% chance of scoring to try to get points on the board. The Hammers will be hoping for a more impressive performance than the one against Manchester United, but that shouldn’t be hard.

Maya Yoshida has a 10.39% chance of scoring whilst also having a 42.09%  to keep a clean sheet. With Yoshida possibly on free kicks, he could be a steal at just £5.0M. West Ham on the other side have a 19.22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, and it would be advised to steer clear until they show some stability defensively.

Stoke v Arsenal

Saturday 19th August / 17:30

Arsenal plays the side in the Premier League with the most Champions League winners, Bojan and Jesé, though, could both start on the bench. Arsenal excited on their opening day fixture, while Stoke looked solid, but struggled to create any real chances.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Alexandre Lacazette50.24%1.992.2
Alexis Sanchez45.92%2.182.2
Olivier Giroud47.89%2.092.3
Danny Welbeck40.10%2.492.88
Theo Walcott36.50%2.743.3
Alex Iwobi29.11%3.444
Julien Ngoy25.42%3.934
Lucas Perez33.90%2.954
Peter Crouch27.45%3.644
Saido Berahino26.75%3.744.33
Aaron Ramsey27.68%3.614.5
Bojan24.48%4.094.5
Mesut Ozil29.35%3.414.5
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain23.17%4.325
Eric Choupo Moting23.65%4.235
Thibaud Verlinden20.94%4.785
Xherdan Shaqiri21.99%4.555.25
Mame Biram Diouf20.31%4.926
Ramadan Sobhi19.24%5.206.5
Joe Allen16.39%6.107.5
Ainsley Maitland-Niles13.33%7.508
Granit Xhaka16.38%6.118
Charlie Adam15.24%6.568.5
Mohamed Elneny14.14%7.079
Darren Fletcher11.76%8.5010
Shkodran Mustafi10.95%9.1311
Giannelli Imbula9.09%11.0012
Francis Coquelin11.31%8.8414
Hector Bellerin10.20%9.8114
Nacho Monreal8.78%11.3914
Per Mertesacker9.86%10.1414
Sead Kolasinac11.69%8.5514
Geoff Cameron8.28%12.0815
No Goalscorer8.28%12.0815
Rob Holding8.70%11.5015
Kurt Zouma7.91%12.6517
Ryan Shawcross8.66%11.5517
Thomas Edwards6.38%15.6717
Bruno Martins Indi6.87%14.5621
Glen Johnson8.37%11.9521
Josh Tymon7.25%13.7921
Philipp Wollscheid5.79%17.2621
Erik Pieters5.40%18.5325

Alexandre Lacazette opened the scoring just two minutes into his Premier League debut and it’s no surprise that’s he’s got the highest chance of scoring at 50.24%. Zaha’s injury has forced many Fantasy Football managers to look for a replacement. Ramsey being most peoples go to the option they’ll be happy to see he has a 27.68% chance of scoring.

Many will be surprised to see that Saido Berahino has a 26.75% chance of scoring his first-ever goal for Stoke despite playing 14 games and failing to score in all of them.

Stoke have just a 19.20% chance, whilst Arsenal has a 37.68% of keeping a clean sheet. Hector Bellerin who tends to play quite high up also has 10.20% chance of scoring, but realistically, neither side is advisable to keep a clean sheet in this fixture. There are better options elsewhere.

Huddersfield v Newcastle

Sunday 20th August / 13:30

In what would have been seen as one of the fixtures of the season in the Championship between two contenders for the title/promotion. This weekends fixture already has the air of a 6 pointer. Newcastle will be without Jonjo Shelvey due to a horrific stamp against Dele Alli.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Steve Mounie34.58%2.893.30
Dwight Gayle31.51%3.173.75
Aleksandar Mitrovic29.77%3.363.90
Laurent Depoitre29.58%3.383.75
Collin Quaner29.19%3.434.00
Elias Kachunga28.56%3.504.00
Thomas Ince27.91%3.584.20
Joe Lolley25.60%3.914.00
Ayoze Perez24.78%4.044.50
Kasey Palmer23.22%4.315.00
Matt Ritchie22.79%4.395.00
Rajiv van La Parra21.99%4.555.50
Daryl Murphy21.74%4.606.00
Siem De Jong20.35%4.916.00
Christian Atsu20.01%5.006.50
Sean Scannell19.82%5.057.00
Mohamed Diame17.70%5.657.00
Aaron Mooy17.24%5.807.50
Rolando Aarons14.42%6.938.50
Mikel Merino14.30%7.008.00
No Goalscorer12.99%7.708.80
Jordan Williams12.87%7.779.00
Philip Billing11.49%8.7011.00
Dean Whitehead10.46%9.5610.00
Isaac Hayden10.24%9.7611.00
Chris Lowe9.84%10.1613.00
Jack Colback9.73%10.2813.00
Tyrone Mings9.67%10.3417.00
Jamie Sterry9.58%10.4311.00
Jamaal Lascelles9.34%10.7014.00
Scott Malone8.94%11.1819.00
Ciaran Clark8.88%11.2715.00
Chancel Mbemba8.56%11.6819.00
Michael Hefele8.54%11.7117.00
Mathias Jorgensen7.84%12.7517.00
Brandon Mason7.79%12.8421.00
Adrian Mariappa7.66%13.0621.00
Tommy Smith7.49%13.3618.00
Achraf Lazaar7.11%14.0715.00
Christopher Schindler7.10%14.0818.00
Grant Hanley6.72%14.8816.00
Javi Manquillo6.15%16.2621.00
Jesus Gamez6.07%16.4720.00
Paul Dummett5.78%17.3019.00
Massadio Haidara5.73%17.4523.00

With 2.6% of managers bringing Aaron Mooy into their team they could be left disappointed to see he only has a 17.50% chance of scoring. The midfielder is on set pieces, can cross a ball, and has a chance of an assist, but is unlikely to score for the Terriers.

Steve Mounie only has a 34.58% chance of scoring, despite his brace against Crystal Palace, which may upset many managers, but the young Beninese striker won’t come up against many weaker defences than the one he played in the opening fixture.

Newcastle has a 30.68% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Meaning our Robert Elliot will be starting for our team this week. When you compare him to the alternate option being Wayne Hennessey who is an 11.85% chance of starting, the Irishman is a far more likely option of keeping a clean sheet.

Tottenham v Chelsea

Sunday 20th August / 16:00

After losing at home to Burnley, Chelsea is already attempting to beat Mourinho’s most recent season at the club it seems. With Conte and the board seemingly at loggerheads, it is unknown how much longer the Italian lasts at the club unless they start signing some new players to replace their ever growing suspension list. Spurs still have injury doubts with full-backs Tripper and Rose both being out for the fixture.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Harry Kane48.60%2.062.30
Dele Alli35.22%2.843.20
Alvaro Morata33.95%2.953.26
Vincent Janssen33.33%3.003.60
Michy Batshuayi31.49%3.183.50
Son Heung-Min31.46%3.183.75
Christian Eriksen28.05%3.564.50
Georges-Kevin Nkoudou26.14%3.833.90
Pedro24.71%4.055.10
Jeremie Boga23.88%4.195.00
Willian23.46%4.265.10
Moussa Sissoko20.88%4.796.50
Charly Musonda20.59%4.867.00
Harry Winks17.02%5.888.00
Mousa Dembele16.84%5.947.50
Kenedy15.97%6.267.50
Marcos Alonso15.43%6.489.50
Victor Moses15.16%6.609.00
Victor Wanyama14.20%7.0410.50
Eric Dier12.37%8.0810.00
Kyle Scott12.17%8.2210.00
Tiemoue Bakayoko10.57%9.4612.00
David Luiz10.39%9.6312.00
Toby Alderweireld10.34%9.6712.00
No Goalscorer9.91%10.0911.50
Jan Vertonghen8.91%11.2315.00
Andreas Christensen8.54%11.7113.50
NGolo Kante8.50%11.7716.00
Ben Davies8.18%12.2315.00
Antonio Rudiger7.52%13.2917.00
Fikayo Tomori7.40%13.5220.00
Kevin Wimmer7.36%13.5817.00
Jake Clarke-Salter7.31%13.6820.00
Kyle Walker-Peters7.19%13.9117.00
Kieran Trippier7.17%13.9517.00
Cameron Carter-Vickers6.63%15.0919.00
Cesar Azpilicueta5.56%18.0029.00

Harry Kane is at a huge 49.01%  the premier league 2016/2017 Golden Boot winner has a great record in London derbies. Unfortunately for him, it’s August. Dele Alli is at 35.08% to have two goals in his first two games. The young talented midfielder has been rising every season and it’s been brilliant to witness. Son’s substitute appearance comes earlier than expected meaning that he could come into contention for a start for Spurs, and he is a great cheap option to get a Tottenham player into your side.

Chelsea will be without Eden Hazard, Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas, and Gary Cahill. With such a small squad going into this game one of their most likely scoring options will be our Willian at 23.77% with other midfield options including

Morata is the most likely scorer for Chelsea, and after his cameo of a goal and an assist, he is likely to start, as Batashuayi (31.64%)is likely to be dropped back to where he spent most of the last season, on the bench.

Chelsea have only a 23.39% of keeping a clean sheet being the 8th least likely side to keep a clean sheet. This is most likely due to being away to Spurs, but after conceding 3 goals in their opening fixture to Burnley, the Chelsea back line isn’t inspiring confidence right now, with out of position wing backs Victor Moses (15.16%) and our Marcos Alonso (15.43%) both being back in the side, the Chelsea defence still has a has a chance to score, but are unlikely to get clean sheet points.

Spurs have only a 34.63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, less than that of Huddersfield (36.53%), Burnley (39.05%) and Bournemouth (35.85%). This means having a Spurs defender is far from a requisite, and that the Davies bandwagon may have ended before it really even begun. A Spurs or Chelsea defender both have low chances of scoring high numbers so would be advised against this week.

Man City v Everton

Monday 21st August / 20:00

As good as Man City looked against Brighton, they struggled for a long period of the game to break down the solid Brighton back line. Everton has had one of the better defences in recent years, with Everton having the least amount of goals against, outside of the top 6 last season. Everton only conceded 44 goals last season, and last season inflicted one of the most embarrassing results of Pep’s career beating the Citizens 4-0.

Player NameImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax Odds
Sergio Aguero59.51%1.681.8
Gabriel Jesus54.64%1.831.91
Leroy Sane37.47%2.673
Raheem Sterling34.65%2.893.15
Ilkay Gundogan32.36%3.093.2
Bernardo Silva36.90%2.713.25
Kevin De Bruyne33.47%2.993.5
Brahim Diaz37.40%2.673.65
Yaya Toure29.59%3.384.5
Phil Foden26.27%3.815.1
Sandro Ramirez22.21%4.506
Wayne Rooney22.79%4.396.1
David Silva29.80%3.366.5
Kevin Mirallas18.55%5.397
Davy Klaassen16.25%6.157
Dominic Calvert-Lewin16.20%6.177
Fernandinho17.82%5.617.5
Ross Barkley14.71%6.87.5
Ademola Lookman15.18%6.588.5
Aaron Lennon11.68%8.569.5
Vincent Kompany12.46%8.0210
Kyle Walker11.53%8.6710
Danilo13.29%7.5211.5
Eliaquim Mangala11.17%8.9511.5
John Stones11.02%9.0711.5
Gareth Barry10.14%9.8512
Tom Davies11.39%8.7812.5
Nicolas Otamendi10.79%9.2713
Tosin Adarabioyo9.73%10.2713
Leighton Baines8.68%11.5214
No Goalscorer7.86%12.7215
James McCarthy8.07%12.3917
Morgan Schneiderlin7.89%12.6717
Muhamed Besic7.04%14.2017
Michael Keane7.85%12.7319
Idrissa Gueye6.30%15.8619
Phil Jagielka5.76%17.3521
Mason Holgate4.86%20.5623
Ashley Williams4.55%2226
Cuco Martina4.11%24.3429

Aguero is the most likely scorer this game week, with an implied probability of scoring of 59.51%, meaning that Agueeeeeeerrrrroooooo (fuck me it pains me to say that as a United fan) is this weeks captain. Gabriel Jesus is the second most likely player to score in this match with a likelihood of scoring of 54.64%, leaving the Brazilian as the 3rd most likely scorer this game week. Leroy Sane (37.47%), Raheem Sterling (34.65%) and Kevin De Bruyne (33.47%) sit in the mid 30 percents. Leroy Sane is the most likely of the midfield scorers, but didn’t start last week, and is definitely a rotation risk.

Everton’s most likely scorer is no other than England’s top scorer Wayne Rooney with a 22.79% chance of scoring, while Sandro Ramirez (22.21%) also has a slight chance of scoring, you would be better going with a Man City defender than an Everton attacker in this fixture, with players like John Stones (11.02%) and our Vincent Kompany (12.46%) looking to build on their clean sheet against Brighton last week, and are the second most likely side to keep a clean sheet, with a probability of 51.41%. Everton, on the other hand, has the least likely chance of keeping a clean sheet, with only an 11.25% chance. So steer clear of goalscoring Michael Keane.

The Team

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Conclusion:

Aguero is our captain due to him being more likely to score than Lukaku, and due to him being more likely to play than Mane. If there weren’t injury worries for Mane, and he was sure to play the 90 he would have been captain, but due to these issues surrounding him, he has been made captain.

There are some players which could have been traded, but with an international break, I feel it is worthwhile having the chance to make 2 swaps should there be injury instead of just the one and taking a 4 point hit. While we could have signed Valencia short term instead of Alonso, Chelsea’s next fixture is at home, and it is better to spread defensive coverage due to variance. Good luck and let’s make some points.

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4 comments on “Fantasy Premier League – Gameweek 2 – Odds On FPL”

    1. Hi mate. The goalscorer odds are coming soon. I plan to have it up by 8.15. The team selection will be done tomorrow morning at 10am

      1. BTW, schedule is sort of like this:

        Monday/Tuesday = Team Review
        Wednesday = Clean Sheets
        Thursday Morning = Winners & Losers
        Thursday Evening = Anytime goalscorers
        Fridays = Team selection

        Obviously changes dependent on the week and the fixtures.

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