Beat the Odds

Beat the Odds – Gameweek 2


Hi All, I’m Shano, one of the Co-Founders of OddsonFPL. I’m an avid Fantasy Football fan and have been playing for many years. As you know myself and Paddy post a team based on the bookie’s odds. In this article I’ll be giving my personal opinion on what I think is the best team and if it will beat the bookie’s odds. Each game will have a recommendation of a player that I think will return high points.  I then post what I feel will be the best XI(and bench) in hope of getting the highest game score that week.

Swansea V Manchester United

A very strong start for United against West Ham. Many Lukaku owners will be hoping for the same again next week. It looked like West Ham couldn’t handle the movement of Pogba and co. which led to a disastrous result.

With Swansea holding onto a surprisingly clean sheet, I think it will be too much for them to do it again this week. The pace of Rashford and Mkihtaryan will likely prove too much for The Swans.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Lukaku: 12.5M

Bournemouth V Watford

A poor display from Bournemouth will see their fans bitterly disappointed getting no points on the opening game. Fans will be hoping for a big result this week. Ake looked very strong in defence for Bournemouth making last ditch tackles and looking composed on the ball.

With Watford surprisingly scoring three goals against Liverpool and getting a draw, the stand out player for me was Doucoure (dare I say he could be the new Capoue). He played very aggressively; dominated the midfield for periods of the game; and scored a well deserved goal. He achieved only one goal all of last season so he’s already on to beat his record one game in. It’s unlikely Watford will keep many clean sheets this year – defensively they’re just not good enough – but with Doucoure a cheap £5M midfielder who’s played quite well, it wouldn’t surprise me to see many get him in if he manages another goal or an assist against Bournemouth.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Doucoure £5M

Ake  £5.0M

Burnley V West Brom

What a game it was on Saturday morning between Chelsea and Burnley for a neutral. For those of us with Fantasy Football teams, I imagine it was very painful. One of the biggest surprises was Burnley not playing Walters. I had planned to use Walters in a rotation but now I’m not sure as he may not be starting. At £5.5M it appeared to be a great idea to get him in and rotate him with Milivojevic from Crystal Palace. Well… Milivojevic got subbed before the 60th minute and Walters didn’t start – so that didn’t go to plan!

A West Brom defender popping up with a goal – where have I seen that before? A great debut for Hegazi who did me proud considering I picked him. I think he’ll be a good option going forward as a cheap rotating defender. Burnley’s home record from last season is very strong so I would advise leaving out West Brom attackers.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Ward £4.5M

Hegazi £4.5M

Vokes £6M

Leicester v Brighton

With Vardy being the third-highest player transferred in after his two goals against Arsenal, I expect many people to captain him this week. Brighton held on for 70 minutes before conceding to Manchester City; however, it could have been a lot more than 2-0 by the end. Brighton had two or three late chances to score in the game but aside from that, they didn’t create much else from a Fantasy Football perspective.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Jamie Vardy £8.5M

Simpson £4.5M

Liverpool V Crystal Palace

Goals, goals, goals! That’s what we’ll all be expecting from this game. This fixture in the past has generally returned plenty of them. With the first GW came an absolute shock result for Crystal Palace, they’ll definitely be fighting hard to get points on the board this week. Defensively I wouldn’t place either set of defenders on my team. Liverpool’s failure to defend set pieces means they likely will concede goals against the weaker teams far more frequently than the other ‘big’ 5.

Liverpool probably has one of the best front 3’s in terms of Fantasy Football. Firmino; Mane; Salah; – all on the board after GW1 is exactly why you must have at least one of the three big hitters. With Firmino possible on penalty duty  due to Milner not a guaranteed starter I opted with Firmino for GW1 whereby he got a goal and an assist (It should have been two goals but his chip was awful and Salah did him the favour in scoring)

From the Crystal Palace side of things, I think Benteke is the only option to have on the team.With Liverpool’s failure to defend set pieces, it wouldn’t surprise me if the big man Benteke popped up with a goal.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Salah £9M

Mane £9.5M

Firmino £8.5M

Benteke £8M

Southampton V West Ham

Yoshida, Bertrand, Cedric, Redmond, Tadic, and James Ward Prowse. Following Southampton’s apparent easy opening fixture, many FF managers had at least one of these players on their team. So those who chose the attackers were left very frustrated. Personally, I opted Tadic and seeing him miss an easy chance early in the game was heartbreaking.

While Redmond owners saw him get a yellow card and lose a point, James Ward Prowse was wasteful in creating any opportunities. On the other side of things, those who had the defenders were left delighted. A clean sheet in the bag. Yoshida now appears to be an option on free kicks; Bertrand possibly on corners; and Cedric for his potential goal threat.

No West Ham player worth mentioning that would warrant considering in your Fantasy Football team.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Yoshida £5.0M

Stoke V Arsenal

While the Stoke game lacked excitement, the Arsenal game was very entertaining. Laccazette scoring on his debut after just two minutes led to a huge sigh of relief for those who picked him (me, I’m talking about me ok!). However, when the final score was 4-3 I couldn’t help but feel 1 goal and 0 assists wasn’t good enough from Laccazette. Arsenal looked a disaster at the back. While Bellerin’s defending has never been his best attribute, it appears to have gotten worse over time. With Ramsey fully expected to start this week, and Zaha out with injury I’m very surprised that only 2.7%  managers have transferred him in. Over 13.6% have opted for Xhaka likely due to the cheaper price, I think if you can afford to get Ramsey in your team he’ll be a much better option.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Ramsey £7.0

Huddersfield V Newcastle

Mounnniiiieeeeeee Mounnieeeeeeeee. Not quite the same as Rooney…. The Huddersfield debutant striker managed two goals in his opening game. A surprise victory for Huddersfield and an even bigger surprise that they kept a clean sheet will see many Fantasy Football managers considering their players an option this week.  With Lossl and Zanka both playing great in GW1, they could definitely be considered – not two of them at the same time obviously.

While Newcastle are weakened without Shelvey, it was Atsu who really impressed me last weekend. His pace and direct attacks will cause a lot of defenders problems in the future. It will be interesting to see how the Huddersfield defenders cope with that.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Lossl or Zanka £4.5M

Atsu £5.0M

Spurs V Chelsea

The first London Derby of the season will be arriving this weekend! With a depleted Chelsea team following red cards issued to Fabregas and Cahill, this will leave the Chelsea squad very light. As Hazard is back in training, it will probably be too early for him to start the game. Pedro’s ankle injury is still causing him problems which could see Chelsea in a lot of trouble.

Spurs enjoyed their 3-0 opening game win away to Newcastle. I fancied that to be a tight game and opted to have no Spurs players (thanks Shelvey). Harry Kane never scores in August. Harry Kane always scores in London Derbies. Which one do you go for? Personally, I think Delli Alli or Eriksen are better options this week. Kane hitting the post and having a goal rightly disallowed just feels like some crazy curse on him in August. If he were to blank two weeks in a row and Lukaku was to strike that could be an awful start for those who chose Kane.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:                               

Alli or Eriksen £9.5M

Manchester City V Everton

Jesus or Aguero? KDB or D.Silva? Sane or Sterling? The mixed bag that is Manchester City and Peps love of rotation means it’s very difficult to choose who you’re going to choose. It would be frightening to go a GW without having any City cover. I opted for KDB in GW1 and got the reward of 3 points. He had some decent chances but I chose him because he generally takes the free kicks and is least likely to be rotated. Having watched the game, Jesus was incredible and owners will feel very hard done by to come out with only 1 point. The yellow card was quite ridiculous. Aguero as always did the business and the swing of 8 points between Aguero and Jesus will hurt Fantasy Footballers a lot.

As an Everton fan, the best piece of advice I can give for the next few GW’s is to avoid Everton players. The fixtures are not generous; clean sheets and goals will be scarce. Everton fans are in for a painful few weeks. The Toffee’s lack a severe amount of pace and the movement of Jesus/Aguero/KDB/Silva will cause Everton a lot of problems.

Going forward I think Everton will struggle to break City down. A City defender will be beneficial here as I think they have a good chance of a clean sheet.

Recommendation of player(s) for this game:

Walker £6.5M

Jesus £10.5M

Aguero £11.5

My Predicted TOTW

As you can see I suggested a lot of players. Everybody will be able to pick and choose between some may not have the funds to get certain players so I tried to spread it. Now I’m going to try to pick the team that will return the best points this week. If you’re one of those FF players who creates a team weekly to try to get the highest score this will be exactly what you want to see.


Total Cost: £99.2

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