Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 2

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This week’s clean sheet chances differ a lot from last week. This is partly due to 2 of the top 6 going toe to toe. With the tie of the weekend between Tottenham and Chelsea set to cause a lot of managers to ponder making changes to their backline. Last week 8 teams managed to keep clean sheets which normally means that there are a lot of teams scoring highly, and with the average point tally being 58, it definitely was one of the higher averages.

TeamImplied ChanceAverage OddsBest Odds
Man Utd56.29%1.781.83
Man City51.41%1.952.00
Liverpool47.78%2.092.15
Leicester43.31%2.312.38
Southampton42.09%2.382.45
Burnley39.05%2.562.70
Arsenal37.68%2.652.75
Huddersfield36.53%2.742.80
Bournemouth35.86%2.792.88
Tottenham34.63%2.893.00
West Brom33.81%2.963.10
Newcastle30.68%3.263.35
Chelsea23.39%4.284.45
Watford22.26%4.494.75
Brighton20.62%4.855.10
West Ham19.22%5.205.50
Stoke19.20%5.215.50
Swansea14.52%6.897.50
Crystal Palace11.85%8.449.30
Everton11.25%8.8910.00

Don’ts:

The sum of all probabilities is 631%, which means that slightly more than 6 sides this week are expected to keep clean sheets. Everton (11.25%) are the least likely of the sides to keep a clean sheet, despite managing to do so in their opening game week. With European fixtures and matches against Chelsea away, and at home to Spurs next, it would be a terrible option to get an Everton defender for the next few game weeks. Crystal Palace (11.85%), Swansea (14.52%), Stoke (19.2%) and West Ham (19.22%) all are the least likely sides to keep a clean sheet this week. So high scoring defenders like Federico Fernández (9 points) and Phil Jagielka (7 points) will be best off ignored.

Do’s:

The only sides which are more likely to keep clean sheets than not this week are sides from Manchester. With Manchester United having an implied chance of 56.29%, and Manchester City having an implied chance of 51.41%. The only other sides which are above 40% include Liverpool (47.78%), Leicester (43.31%) and Southampton (42.09%). All sides other than that are under 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Which may mean, unless you feel the player is going to score or assist, then they may not be worth being in your XI. Having a defender from City or Manchester United is an absolute requisite, with Phil Jones (5.0m) and John Stones (5.5m) both looking nailed and cheap enough to exchange for another defender in your side.

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