Fantasy Premier League – Gameweek 1

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It’s back boys.

Fantasy Football is back.

The lessons have been learned, and previous scars of early captains have become war wounds which will make us all stronger. Thinking Stanislas was a better option than Josh King, choosing Baines over Coleman because he was on penalties, thinking Mame Biram Diouf was a better attacking option than Jamie Vardy, we’ve all been there. We all have our war wounds. I’m hoping that my research can help you choose your team better, and to improve your overall ranking from last season to your best ever. So here is a bunch of statistical information to helping you pick your team for this season.

Arsenal v Leicester

Friday 11th August / 19:45
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Alexis Sanchez 54.50% 1.84 1.91
Alexandre Lacazette 55.80% 1.79 1.94
Olivier Giroud 51.62% 1.94 2.05
Danny Welbeck 45.29% 2.21 2.40
Donyell Malen 38.13% 2.62 2.63
Theo Walcott 40.49% 2.47 2.80
Alex Iwobi 32.91% 3.04 3.50
Reiss Nelson 31.72% 3.15 3.60
Jamie Vardy 29.82% 3.35 3.75
Chris Willock 26.67% 3.75 3.75
Aaron Ramsey 28.56% 3.50 4.00
Mesut Ozil 31.15% 3.21 4.00
Kelechi Iheanacho 27.04% 3.70 5.00
Islam Slimani 25.25% 3.96 5.00
Jack Wilshere 22.76% 4.39 5.50
Leonardo Ulloa 23.22% 4.31 5.50
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 24.07% 4.15 5.50
Shinji Okazaki 22.77% 4.39 5.50
Harvey Barnes 20.07% 4.98 5.50
Riyad Mahrez 21.35% 4.68 6.00
Mohamed El-Nenny 15.38% 6.50 6.50
Ahmed Musa 19.95% 5.01 7.00
George Thomas 18.49% 5.41 7.00
Tom Lawrence 18.21% 5.49 7.50
Demarai Gray 16.97% 5.89 7.50
Granit Xhaka 18.07% 5.53 7.60
Mohamed Elneny 15.31% 6.53 8.00
Laurent Koscielny 12.90% 7.75 8.50
Vicente Iborra 14.29% 7.00 9.00
Marc Albrighton 14.27% 7.01 9.00
Sead Kolasinac 15.06% 6.64 9.50
Ainsley Maitland-Niles 13.21% 7.57 9.50
Cohen Bramall 10.53% 9.50 9.50
Shkodran Mustafi 12.71% 7.87 10.00
Andy King 12.72% 7.86 10.00
Daniel Drinkwater 9.80% 10.20 11.00
Per Mertesacker 10.83% 9.23 12.00
Rob Holding 10.55% 9.48 12.00
Francis Coquelin 10.19% 9.82 12.00
Kieran Gibbs 9.01% 11.10 12.00
Robert Huth 8.89% 11.25 12.50
Calum Chambers 9.46% 10.57 13.00
Hector Bellerin 9.98% 10.02 13.00
Matty James 9.16% 10.91 13.00
Nacho Monreal 9.57% 10.45 13.00
Wilfred Ndidi 10.20% 9.80 13.00
Harry Maguire 9.07% 11.02 15.00
Christian Fuchs 7.80% 12.82 15.00
Daniel Amartey 7.46% 13.40 18.00
Wes Morgan 6.90% 14.50 18.00
No Goalscorer 7.29% 13.73 18.50
Elliott Moore 5.63% 17.75 19.00
Ben Chilwell 7.02% 14.25 23.00
Nampalys Mendy 6.40% 15.62 23.00
Yohan Benalouane 4.70% 21.29 26.00
Danny Simpson 3.51% 28.52 41.00
Alexis Sanchez is out with back pain for this fixture due to carrying Arsenal last season. The Chilean perhaps overperformed in a side which underperformed, and while Arsene has signed French attacker Alexandre Lacazette, it seems to be too little too late to keep Sanchez interest in Arsenal. There is one thing though to keep your interest in Arsenal this season, and that is a glorious French attacker who has proven himself at Lyon to be more than capable of scoring goals wherever he plays. Lacazette’s implied chance of scoring against Leicester is 55.80%, with the recent champions Leicester only having an implied chance of 13.95% of keeping a clean sheet it could be very profitable for you to have the new signing in your team.
Recent record breaker Jamie Vardy 29.82% while recent signing Kelechi Iheanacho has an implied chance of scoring of 27.04%. Riyad Mahrez who has been angling for a move to Arsenal all summer long is only at an implied chance of 21.35% of scoring, and could still be on penalties for the foxes. With Arsenal being at home, their defenders being a premium price, and yet the implied chance being only 41.59% to keep a clean sheet, wing backs Sead Kolasinac and Hector Bellerin might be worth ignoring for now.
 

Watford v Liverpool

Saturday 12th August / 12:30
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Danny Ings 41.15% 2.43 2.43
Daniel Sturridge 43.21% 2.31 2.50
Roberto Firmino 41.38% 2.42 2.75
Sadio Mane 41.23% 2.43 2.75
Divock Origi 38.74% 2.58 2.80
Mohamed Salah 39.55% 2.53 2.88
Dominic Solanke 37.74% 2.65 3.00
Adam Lallana 30.30% 3.30 3.30
Philippe Coutinho 33.10% 3.02 3.40
Lazar Markovic 28.07% 3.56 3.65
Ovie Ejaria 25.97% 3.85 4.00
Ben Woodburn 27.99% 3.57 4.33
Sheyi Ojo 25.38% 3.94 4.40
Ryan Kent 27.23% 3.67 4.50
Troy Deeney 25.69% 3.89 4.50
Stefano Okaka 23.74% 4.21 4.80
Richarlison 22.65% 4.41 5.00
Jerome Sinclair 23.07% 4.34 5.00
Marko Grujic 22.76% 4.39 5.10
Georginio Wijnaldum 22.76% 4.39 5.10
James Milner 22.76% 4.39 5.50
Isaac Success 19.14% 5.22 6.50
Jordan Henderson 17.40% 5.75 7.00
Emre Can 17.21% 5.81 8.00
Dion Pereira 15.51% 6.45 8.00
Etienne Capoue 16.21% 6.17 9.00
Roberto Pereyra 16.78% 5.96 9.00
Nordin Amrabat 14.62% 6.84 9.00
Tom Cleverley 13.79% 7.25 9.50
Trent Alexander Arnold 13.13% 7.61 9.50
Abdoulaye Doucoure 12.77% 7.83 10.00
Trent Alexander-Arnold 11.96% 8.36 10.00
Andrew Robertson 11.95% 8.37 11.00
Will Hughes 11.84% 8.44 12.00
Alberto Moreno 10.71% 9.34 12.00
Dejan Lovren 10.27% 9.74 12.00
Ben Watson 9.84% 10.17 13.00
No Goalscorer 9.12% 10.97 13.00
Kiko Femeneia 7.14% 14.00 14.00
Nathaniel Chalobah 10.02% 9.98 15.00
Jose Holebas 8.47% 11.80 15.00
Jon Flanagan 8.11% 12.33 15.00
Joel Matip 9.03% 11.08 15.00
Nathaniel Clyne 8.69% 11.51 15.00
Any Other Player 6.25% 16.00 16.00
Christian Kabasele 8.27% 12.09 17.00
Younes Kaboul 7.67% 13.04 17.00
Sebastian Prodl 7.62% 13.12 17.00
Ragnar Klavan 7.37% 13.56 17.00
Juan Zuniga 5.26% 19.00 19.00
Heurelho Gomes 6.82% 14.66 21.00
Daryl Janmaat 7.92% 12.62 21.00
Joseph Gomez 5.56% 18.00 21.00
Tommy Hoban 5.36% 18.67 21.00
Miguel Britos 6.63% 15.08 23.00
Valon Behrami 6.56% 15.24 23.00
Craig Cathcart 5.42% 18.46 23.00
Brice Dja Djedje 4.94% 20.25 25.00
Adrian Mariappa 4.46% 22.41 26.00
Brandon Mason 4.45% 22.47 26.00
Danny Ings won’t start, so you can ignore him like Jurgen Klopp will. Liverpool’s front 3 will be Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mané and new signing Mohamed Salah, with star player Philippe Coutinho likely to miss out through injury. With Firmino being utilised a lot as a false 9 last season, and only scoring 11 goals, he looks to be occupying a position up top which could be better used elsewhere.
As for who to choose between Mané and Salah, it is worth the .5m for the safety that Mane brings. Salah has been here before and unimpressed at Chelsea, and while he is a much better player now, than then, it is still unknown how he settles in Liverpool, while Mané is arguably Liverpool’s best player. Mane is also a 41.23% chance of scoring while Mohamed Salah is only a 39.55% chance of scoring, which gives him the edge for me.
Coutinho could be selected in future, but moving from a 9.5m midfielder to an 8.5m is an easy transition to make.
In what many predict could be a one sided victory for Liverpool, the odds for a clean sheet for Liverpool is only 44.86%, less than that of Everton (47.83%) and Southampton (49.81%). It could be advised to steer clear from a Liverpool defender, and a Watford player in general, with Troy (fat drake) Deeney being the most likely scorer at 25.69%, while they only stand a 17.19% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

Chelsea v Burnley

Saturday 12th August / 15:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Michy Batshuayi 55.52% 1.80 2.05
Alvaro Morata 54.97% 1.82 2.20
Eden Hazard 47.22% 2.12 2.40
Loic Remy 45.66% 2.19 2.50
Willian 41.00% 2.44 2.80
Jeremie Boga 40.20% 2.49 2.80
Pedro 39.25% 2.55 2.88
Kenedy 34.77% 2.88 2.90
Charly Musonda 37.12% 2.69 3.70
Cesc Fabregas 29.93% 3.34 4.00
Victor Moses 25.00% 4.00 4.00
Lewis Baker 33.67% 2.97 4.20
Marcos Alonso 23.68% 4.22 5.00
Andre Gray 21.12% 4.74 5.50
Sam Vokes 19.23% 5.20 6.00
Tiemoue Bakayoko 15.66% 6.39 6.50
Ashley Barnes 17.41% 5.74 7.00
Jonathan Walters 17.26% 5.79 7.00
Daniel Agyei 16.00% 6.25 7.50
Kyle Scott 19.54% 5.12 7.50
Gary Cahill 15.84% 6.31 8.00
David Luiz 14.50% 6.90 9.00
Andreas Christensen 12.73% 7.86 10.00
Cristian Cuevas 12.00% 8.33 10.00
Robbie Brady 12.85% 7.78 11.00
Johann Berg Gudmundsson 11.34% 8.82 11.00
Fikayo Tomori 12.86% 7.78 11.00
Antonio Rudiger 11.30% 8.85 11.00
Jake Clarke-Salter 11.01% 9.08 11.00
NGolo Kante 11.93% 8.38 11.00
Jeff Hendrick 10.87% 9.20 13.00
Scott Arfield 11.14% 8.98 13.00
Steven Defour 9.47% 10.56 13.00
Cesar Azpilicueta 9.11% 10.98 15.00
Fredrik Ulvestad 7.29% 13.71 15.00
Any Other Player 6.25% 16.00 16.00
No Goalscorer 7.76% 12.89 17.00
Ashley Westwood 7.13% 14.02 19.00
Jack Cork 7.35% 13.60 21.00
Dean Marney 4.76% 21.00 21.00
James Tarkowski 5.41% 18.48 23.00
Stephen Ward 4.53% 22.08 26.00
Kevin Long 4.98% 20.09 29.00
Ben Mee 4.50% 22.20 34.00
Charlie Taylor 4.36% 22.96 34.00
Phillip Bardsley 4.43% 22.58 34.00
Matthew Lowton 3.82% 26.20 34.00

This game on paper has Chelsea winning comfortably, Burnley doesn’t win away from home, and relied on their home form to keep them up last season. They have also lost defensive stopper Michael Keane to Everton, and haven’t replaced him, meaning one of Tarkowski or Kevin Long replaces him at the heart of defence.

That all being said, Chelsea does have issues. Conte isn’t happy with the board, Bakayoko isn’t ready, Morata may not be either, but he also could be. Hazard is injured, and Loic Remy is at Mordor or somewhere which isn’t near the starting XI. Starting right wing back last season Victor Moses is also suspended for diving in the FA Cup final. Diego Costa is still dancing in Brazil in an Atletico jersey despite his performances for Chelsea last seasono.

All that being said, Chelsea still keep a clean sheet and win without conceding. If Victor Moses (6.5m) wasn’t suspended I’d have him over Alonso (7.0m) due to him having a slightly higher chance of scoring. Willian at 7.0m is also a good midfield option with a 41% chance of scoring, instead of the slightly more expensive Pedro who has a 39.25% of scoring. Morata at 54.97% and Batshuayi (55.52%) both should score if they start, but it is currently unknown currently who starts out of the two, with Batman looking slightly more likely of the duo.

Get Alonso for the clean sheet at 7.0, with the slight chance of scoring, and consider getting Willian.

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield

Saturday 12th August / 15:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Christian Benteke 45.62% 2.19 2.63
Connor Wickham 31.67% 3.16 3.50
Wilfried Zaha 32.22% 3.10 3.65
Jason Lokilo 28.21% 3.54 3.75
Nahki Wells 23.36% 4.28 4.33
Steve Mounie 24.63% 4.06 4.50
Bakary Sako 26.54% 3.77 4.50
Sullay Kaikai 26.67% 3.75 4.50
Aaron Wan Bissaka 21.51% 4.65 4.80
Elias Kachunga 23.00% 4.35 5.00
Laurent Depoitre 23.03% 4.34 5.00
Thomas Ince 22.25% 4.49 5.00
Andros Townsend 23.49% 4.26 5.50
Collin Quaner 21.65% 4.62 5.50
Yohan Cabaye 22.13% 4.52 5.50
Joe Lolley 18.84% 5.31 5.50
Aaron Wan-Bissaka 18.90% 5.29 7.00
Kasey Palmer 17.13% 5.84 7.00
Jonathan Williams 14.49% 6.90 7.00
Noor Husin 17.16% 5.83 7.50
Patrick van Aanholt 16.23% 6.16 7.50
Ruben Loftus-Cheek 18.99% 5.27 7.50
Lee Chung-yong 16.15% 6.19 8.00
Rajiv van La Parra 15.87% 6.30 8.00
Sean Scannell 14.95% 6.69 8.00
Jason Puncheon 15.93% 6.28 9.00
No Goalscorer 12.68% 7.88 9.20
Aaron Mooy 13.35% 7.49 9.50
James McArthur 13.39% 7.47 9.50
Luka Milivojevic 15.20% 6.58 9.50
Regan Booty 10.67% 9.38 9.50
Jeffrey Schlupp 13.12% 7.62 10.00
Jordan Williams 10.81% 9.25 11.00
Scott Dann 10.64% 9.40 13.00
Philip Billing 9.13% 10.95 14.00
Chris Lowe 8.16% 12.26 14.50
James Tomkins 8.83% 11.32 14.50
Dean Whitehead 8.08% 12.38 15.00
Christopher Scindler 6.67% 15.00 15.00
Jon Gorenc Stankovic 6.85% 14.60 15.00
Any Other Player 6.25% 16.00 16.00
Jonathan Hogg 6.55% 15.28 17.00
Jairo Riedewald 7.64% 13.09 19.00
Joel Ward 7.42% 13.47 19.00
Martin Kelly 7.34% 13.62 19.00
Scott Malone 7.69% 13.00 19.00
Damien Delaney 6.55% 15.27 21.00
Mark Hudson 5.85% 17.08 21.00
Mathias Jorgensen 6.36% 15.72 21.00
Michael Hefele 7.11% 14.06 21.00
Martin Cranie 4.85% 20.60 21.00
Christopher Schindler 5.46% 18.30 25.00
Tommy Smith 6.52% 15.34 25.00
Crystal Palace looked down at one point last season, and Huddersfield scraped promotion after looking like unlikely automatic promotion candidates. Two sides who are expected to have completely different expectations this season after Palace hired highly rated Frank de Boer as their manager, and head coach.
The Eagles were reliant on Zaha for a lot of last season, but have brought in some loan signings which could impress this season in Ruben Loftus Cheek, a 18.99% likelihood of scoring, and Fosu-Mensah a defensive full-back or midfielder who is unlikely to score many points but is a decent 4.5 million option.Benteke is a 45.62% likelihood of scoring against Huddersfield and he could very well do so, but young Jason Lokilo (a 28.21% of scoring) has impressed me enough in pre-season to be my differential pick at 4.5 million alongside loanee Ruben Loftus Cheek also at 4.5 million.

Crystal Palace is unlikely to concede with a 44.79% chance of conceding, so Wayne Hennessy is an option for me at 4.5m, while defenders like Fosu Mensah also being a decent option for a cheap right back. While van Aanholt is probably too expensive for his potential at 5.5m.

Nahki Wells was a poor championship striker, while Steve Mounie is uninspiring, as is Laurent Depoitre. Steer clear of Huddersfield players for now.

Everton v Stoke

Saturday 12th August / 15:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Wayne Rooney 39.22% 2.55 2.88
Sandro Ramirez 38.93% 2.57 2.88
Boris Mathis 33.76% 2.96 3.10
Davy Klaassen 30.89% 3.24 3.75
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 29.11% 3.44 3.75
Kevin Mirallas 30.51% 3.28 3.75
Ademola Lookman 28.72% 3.48 4.10
Saido Berahino 24.87% 4.02 4.50
Peter Crouch 23.68% 4.22 4.80
Joselu 23.68% 4.22 5.00
Aaron Lennon 21.39% 4.68 5.00
Eric Choupo Moting 21.29% 4.70 5.50
Yannick Bolasie 19.05% 5.25 5.50
Bojan 20.60% 4.85 6.00
Julien Ngoy 19.89% 5.03 6.00
Thibaud Verlinden 17.24% 5.80 6.00
Tom Davies 18.98% 5.27 6.25
Xherdan Shaqiri 18.95% 5.28 6.40
Lee Grant 14.81% 6.75 6.75
Mame Biram Diouf 17.39% 5.75 8.00
Ramadan Sobhi 16.29% 6.14 8.00
James McCarthy 13.47% 7.43 8.50
Ramiro Funes Mori 12.12% 8.25 8.50
Michael Keane 12.90% 7.75 9.00
Joe Allen 13.25% 7.55 9.00
Morgan Schneiderlin 13.37% 7.48 9.00
Leighton Baines 14.41% 6.94 9.00
No Goalscorer 11.52% 8.68 9.40
Ibrahim Afellay 10.94% 9.14 10.00
Charlie Adam 13.26% 7.54 10.50
Gareth Barry 10.79% 9.27 12.00
Stephen Ireland 9.38% 10.67 12.00
Idrissa Gueye 10.25% 9.76 13.00
Muhamed Besic 10.72% 9.33 13.00
Darren Fletcher 9.81% 10.20 13.00
Phil Jagielka 9.67% 10.34 13.00
Giannelli Imbula 9.33% 10.72 15.00
Any Other Player 6.25% 16.00 16.00
Ryan Shawcross 7.72% 12.96 17.00
Jonjoe Kenny 7.63% 13.11 17.00
Thomas Edwards 6.06% 16.50 17.00
Geoff Cameron 7.26% 13.78 18.00
Ashley Williams 7.69% 13.00 18.00
Kurt Zouma 6.74% 14.83 18.00
Mason Holgate 7.59% 13.18 18.00
Glen Johnson 7.20% 13.88 21.00
Cuco Martina 6.70% 14.93 21.00
Marc Muniesa 6.36% 15.72 26.00
Josh Tymon 6.03% 16.59 26.00
Philipp Wollscheid 5.09% 19.64 26.00
Erik Pieters 4.79% 20.88 31.00
Wayne Rooney (39.22%) and Sandro (38.93%) look the most likely scorers in this fixture, with Everton looking likely to keep a clean sheet against the normally slow starting Stoke. Stoke have slightly higher chances of scoring a goal than the flip of a coin, but they are notoriously slow starters and have lost their best-attacking player in Arnautovic and are reliant on Berahino for goals. Good luck.I’m not suggesting any Everton or Stoke strikers due to the low likelihood of scoring, and the fixtures for Everton getting worse after this game week.

Southampton v Swansea

Saturday 12th August / 15:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Manolo Gabbiadini 43.99% 2.27 2.60
Charlie Austin 42.76% 2.34 2.75
Shane Long 36.24% 2.76 3.10
Dusan Tadic 32.24% 3.10 3.60
Nathan Redmond 31.40% 3.19 3.75
Fernando Llorente 26.51% 3.77 4.00
Josh Sims 23.82% 4.20 4.40
Sofiane Boufal 27.83% 3.59 4.50
Tammy Abraham 26.76% 3.74 4.50
James Ward-Prowse 24.96% 4.01 4.75
Gylfi Sigurdsson 22.02% 4.54 4.75
Any Other Player 20.00% 5.00 5.00
Jordan Ayew 22.29% 4.49 5.60
Oliver McBurnie 21.62% 4.63 6.10
Mario Lemina 17.34% 5.77 6.50
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 18.07% 5.53 7.00
Nathan Dyer 15.27% 6.55 7.00
Virgil van Dijk 14.68% 6.81 7.00
Leroy Fer 16.84% 5.94 7.50
Sam McQueen 16.50% 6.06 7.50
Wayne Routledge 15.46% 6.47 7.50
Steven Davis 16.22% 6.16 8.00
No Goalscorer 11.28% 8.86 9.90
Luciano Narsingh 13.55% 7.38 10.00
Jefferson Montero 12.16% 8.22 10.00
Ki Sung-yueng 11.65% 8.58 10.00
Jordy Clasie 11.89% 8.41 11.00
Oriol Romeu 12.57% 7.96 11.50
Tom Carroll 11.61% 8.61 11.50
Matt Grimes 8.51% 11.75 12.00
Alfie Mawson 9.90% 10.10 13.00
Jay Fulton 9.28% 10.78 13.00
Jeremy Pied 10.71% 9.33 13.00
Ryan Bertrand 10.06% 9.94 13.00
Maya Yoshida 9.96% 10.04 15.00
Jack Stephens 8.47% 11.80 15.00
Florin Gardos 7.92% 12.62 15.00
Jake Flannigan 8.07% 12.38 15.00
Matt Targett 7.96% 12.56 15.00
Kyle Bartley 7.68% 13.02 17.00
Roque Mesa 8.76% 11.41 18.00
Cedric Soares 7.29% 13.71 18.00
Martin Olsson 7.69% 13.00 21.00
Mike van der Hoorn 7.22% 13.86 21.00
Angel Rangel 6.46% 15.48 21.00
Leon Britton 5.83% 17.15 21.00
Jan Bednarek 6.51% 15.35 21.00
Kyle Naughton 5.66% 17.68 26.00
Federico Fernandez 5.32% 18.80 26.00
Stephen Kingsley 4.84% 20.68 26.00

Manolo Gabbiadiani (43.99%) and Charlie Austin (42.76%) have been both in and out of the side in pre-season, with the Italian looking to have edged it for Pellegrino to start up top for the Saints this season going by pre-season form, which means he will be going in my fantasy football side. The saints have the pick of the fixtures so it is recommended going heavy for options from them, especially under the tutelage of a manager who is not Claude Puel.

Dusan Tadic looks to be the pick of the midfielders with a 6.5 million cost, and a 32.24% chance of scoring. Far higher than Sofiane Boufal, James Ward Prowse and slightly higher than the also inconsistent Redmond. While defensively Virgil Van Dijk is the most likely scorer, were he to play, he is out of the squad due to wanting to join Liverpool. This leaves Yoshida (9.96%) and Bertrand (10.06% )the two most likely scoring offensive players, and with Yoshida being .5 million cheaper than Bertrand he would be the better option than the Englishman, with both defenders also having an implied chance of 49.81% of keeping a clean sheet.

Swansea look set to be in trouble this season, both of their key players Fernando Llorente, and Gylfi Sigurdsson are out of this fixture, with Tammy Abraham (26.76%) set to lead the line for the Swans. They have a likelihood of 20.41% of keeping a clean sheet, and just over 50% chance of scoring. You would be far better pressed to back the saints to keep a clean sheet due to the players out for Swansea, than backing them to score, but Abraham (5.5m) or Tom Carroll (4.5m) would be your best cheap options if you were to have a Swansea player.

West Brom v Bournemouth

Saturday 12th August / 15:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Jay Rodriguez 33.03% 3.03 3.30
Salomon Rondon 34.48% 2.90 3.30
Callum Wilson 31.25% 3.20 3.30
Jermain Defoe 34.24% 2.92 3.50
Hal Robson-Kanu 30.63% 3.27 3.60
Joshua King 30.93% 3.23 3.75
Benik Afobe 28.36% 3.53 4.00
Junior Stanislas 25.48% 3.93 4.00
Nacer Chadli 27.20% 3.68 4.20
Matt Phillips 22.66% 4.41 5.00
Lys Mousset 25.52% 3.92 5.00
Jonathan Leko 24.75% 4.04 5.00
James McClean 20.20% 4.95 6.00
Emerson Hyndman 16.99% 5.89 6.00
Max Gradel 19.10% 5.24 7.00
Rekeem Harper 17.66% 5.66 7.00
Chris Brunt 16.82% 5.95 7.50
Jordon Ibe 15.60% 6.41 7.50
Ryan Fraser 15.60% 6.41 7.50
Harry Arter 15.98% 6.26 7.50
James Morrison 16.52% 6.05 7.50
Marc Pugh 17.24% 5.80 7.50
No Goalscorer 12.71% 7.87 8.50
Connor Mahoney 11.34% 8.82 9.50
Craig Dawson 13.07% 7.65 10.00
Gareth McAuley 12.39% 8.07 10.00
Jake Livermore 11.76% 8.50 10.00
Sam Field 13.23% 7.56 10.00
Dan Gosling 11.03% 9.07 12.00
Charlie Daniels 10.44% 9.58 13.00
Nathan Ake 9.61% 10.41 13.00
Andrew Surman 9.85% 10.15 14.00
Lewis Cook 9.65% 10.36 16.00
Adam Smith 8.33% 12.00 17.00
Jonny Evans 7.86% 12.72 17.00
Steve Cook 7.92% 12.63 17.00
Claudio Yacob 7.40% 13.52 17.00
Marc Wilson 5.00% 20.00 20.00
Baily Cargill 6.13% 16.31 21.00
Ahmed Hegazi 7.23% 13.83 21.00
Brad Smith 5.74% 17.43 23.00
Kane Wilson 6.01% 16.64 26.00
Tyrone Mings 4.82% 20.76 31.00
Nyom 4.56% 21.94 34.00
Simon Francis 3.95% 25.34 41.00

I look at this fixture and see the potential for a 1-1 draw. West Brom has had struggles finding a scorer since long before they signed the profligate Venezuelan Saloman Rondon, and the baggies hope this could be the season where they have found a striker who can score goals, in former England international Jay Rodriguez who has a 33.03% of scoring against Bournemouth. While Rodriguez has had a good pre-season he has been dogged by injuries for years, this could very well be his last chance at the top flight.

Last season West Brom’s Rondon only scored 8 goals, followed closely by 37-year-old centre-back Gareth McAuley. This is the quality of offense which will be going against new goalkeeper Asmir Begovic, once rated as one of the best keepers in the league while at Stoke. What many must have thought, was that McAuley would be a good pick going by goals scored, and how safe West Brom are considered defensively. West Brom though only kept 7 clean sheets last season, and often conceded late, an irritant to myself as a previous Nyom owner.

Bournemouth, on the other hand, has improved massively, they’ve signed a proven goalscorer in Jermaine Defoe, a quality goalkeeper in Begovic, and signed a talented centre back in Ake from Chelsea. This though creates rotation issues.<

Is King nailed on? Is Defoe nailed on? Who knows, Eddie Howe often has favourites and you run the risk of having a player like King or Defoe being put out of the side for an Afobe due to favouritism. The same could be said for Begovic and Boruc.

Personally, I’m keeping clear from Rondon/Rodriguez due to Pulis strikers never being prolific, and Bournemouth players due to the unknowns of who is starting. There are no high likelihood scorers, and a clean sheet is unlikely for both sides.

Brighton v Man City

Saturday 12th August / 17:30
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Sergio Aguero 58.08% 1.72 1.83
Gabriel Jesus 54.97% 1.82 2.00
Patrick Roberts 41.69% 2.40 2.50
Bernado Silva 36.36% 2.75 2.75
Leroy Sane 35.60% 2.81 3.30
Raheem Sterling 33.25% 3.01 3.35
Bernardo Silva 33.49% 2.99 3.40
Samir Nasri 31.53% 3.17 3.70
Kevin De Bruyne 30.86% 3.24 3.75
Brahim Diaz 34.88% 2.87 4.00
Ilkay Gundogan 22.22% 4.50 4.50
Glenn Murray 23.42% 4.27 5.00
Yaya Toure 24.81% 4.03 5.00
Phil Foden 24.95% 4.01 5.10
Anthony Knockaert 19.48% 5.13 6.00
Tomer Hemed 21.12% 4.73 6.00
Aleix Garcia 17.92% 5.58 6.00
Sam Baldock 18.02% 5.55 6.00
Isaiah Brown 17.03% 5.87 7.00
Richard Towell 13.11% 7.63 8.00
Jamie Murphy 15.79% 6.33 8.50
Fernandinho 15.33% 6.52 8.50
Solly March 13.45% 7.44 9.00
David Silva 22.32% 4.48 9.00
Kazenga Lua-Lua 13.33% 7.50 9.50
Pascal Gross 13.16% 7.60 9.50
Benjamin Mendy 12.00% 8.33 9.50
Eliaquim Mangala 10.94% 9.14 9.50
Jiri Skalak 13.30% 7.52 10.00
Davy Propper 12.32% 8.12 10.00
Danilo 11.41% 8.76 11.00
Vincent Kompany 11.43% 8.75 11.00
John Stones 10.05% 9.95 12.00
Dale Stephens 9.86% 10.15 13.00
Kyle Walker 10.09% 9.91 13.00
Nicolas Otamendi 10.17% 9.83 13.00
Steve Sidwell 8.54% 11.71 15.00
Lewis Dunk 7.72% 12.96 15.00
Mathias Normann 7.22% 13.86 15.00
Shane Duffy 7.73% 12.94 16.00
Any Other Player 6.25% 16.00 16.00
No Goalscorer 8.05% 12.42 16.00
Beram Kayal 8.36% 11.97 17.00
Tosin Adarabioyo 8.87% 11.28 17.00
Uwe Hunemeier 6.27% 15.96 23.00
Saltor Bruno 4.85% 20.60 23.00
Bruno 4.41% 22.69 26.00
Markus Suttner 4.98% 20.10 26.00
Connor Goldson 4.51% 22.17 31.00
Liam Rosenior 4.14% 24.17 34.00
Ales Mateju 3.19% 31.38 41.00
Gaetan Bong 3.39% 29.52 41.00

City are dynamite. They have one of the best midfields and attacks in the league and have improved all positions required for this season. City’s full backs have gone from being OAPs to MVP’s in their positions, with Kyle Walker being the most expensive full back in history, and Benjamin Mendy not being far off it either. Not only that, but they’ve replaced the error prone Chilean Bravo with one of football’s up and coming stars in Ederson. I see City being one of the most improved sides and them really setting up how Pep wants them to.

What is unknown though, is how important Sergio Aguero is to Pep’s team. For many years Aguero had gotten by, by just being a fantastic goalscorer, Pep wants him to be more than that, a 10, and when he didn’t do enough he was dropped for the younger, but also fantastic Gabriel Jesus. This was enough to seemingly make Aguero up the ante and improve massively at the end of the season, and if he keeps up the form which he ended last season with, he could be right back up at the top of the goalscoring charts, he is a 58.08% implied chance of scoring, while Jesus has a 54.95% chance, While wingers Sterling (33.25%) and Sane (35.60%) could be interesting options, the midfield magician De Bruyne is only a 30.86% chance of scoring. That being said, there isn’t an implied chance of an assist, but I’m sure De Bruyne would be pretty likely if there was.

With City’s improvements defensively you would be daft not to have a City defender int he side, and Vincent Kompany is probably your most likely option to score (11.43%) and keep a clean sheet for the side.

Brighton has never been in the Premier League, and while they have signed well, and have a good young side, as well as a talented manager, it’s not advisable to back them here against a Man City side, with Glenn Murray being their most likely scorer with a chance of 23.42%.

Newcastle v Tottenham

Sunday 13th August / 13:30
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Harry Kane 55.48% 1.80 2.00
Son Heung-Min 39.92% 2.51 2.65
Dele Alli 39.35% 2.54 2.80
Vincent Janssen 37.82% 2.64 2.88
Erik Lamela 31.87% 3.14 3.20
Dwight Gayle 29.92% 3.34 3.75
Christian Eriksen 30.59% 3.27 4.00
Aleksandar Mitrovic 26.72% 3.74 4.50
Georges-Kevin Nkoudou 24.34% 4.11 5.00
Will Miller 18.87% 5.30 5.30
Ayoze Perez 22.01% 4.54 5.50
Moussa Sissoko 23.49% 4.26 5.75
Harry Winks 20.32% 4.92 5.75
Daryl Murphy 20.01% 5.00 6.00
Matt Ritchie 20.40% 4.90 6.00
Mousa Dembele 18.97% 5.27 6.50
Siem de Jong 19.03% 5.25 6.50
Christian Atsu 18.02% 5.55 7.00
Mohamed Diame 16.41% 6.09 7.50
Victor Wanyama 15.70% 6.37 9.00
Jonjo Shelvey 15.33% 6.52 9.00
Rolando Aarons 15.38% 6.50 9.00
Eric Dier 14.03% 7.13 9.00
Toby Alderweireld 10.92% 9.16 11.00
Mikel Merino 11.40% 8.77 12.00
No Goalscorer 9.30% 10.75 12.50
Jan Vertonghen 9.96% 10.04 13.00
Jamie Sterry 8.33% 12.00 13.00
Ben Davies 9.05% 11.05 14.00
Kevin Wimmer 8.20% 12.20 15.00
Jack Colback 8.26% 12.10 15.00
Ciaran Clark 7.43% 13.46 17.00
Cameron Carter-Vickers 7.52% 13.30 17.00
Isaac Hayden 8.03% 12.46 17.00
Kieran Trippier 7.27% 13.75 17.00
Kyle Walker-Peters 7.49% 13.36 17.00
Achraf Lazaar 6.22% 16.07 17.00
DeAndre Yedlin 6.15% 16.25 17.00
Grant Hanley 5.76% 17.36 19.00
Chancel Mbemba 6.61% 15.13 21.00
Jamaal Lascelles 6.54% 15.28 21.00
Florian Lejeune 5.90% 16.94 23.00
Javi Manquillo 5.34% 18.74 23.00
Paul Dummett 4.73% 21.12 26.00
Massadio Haidara 4.52% 22.14 26.00
Jesus Gamez 3.91% 25.59 36.00

With Danny Rose recently complaining about the wages at Spurs and having to waste his data to google who Georges-Kevin N’Koudou is, there could be rumblings of discontent prior to the seasons kick off against one of league’s (and I know I’ll regret saying this) yo-yo clubs.

Harry Kane will be looking to cement his place as the league’s best striker this season, with the Englishman notching his second consecutive top scorer award pipping the £75 million man Lukaku last season. The implied chance of Harry scoring in the opening game-week is 55.48%, with Newcastle’s Dwight Gayle having only a 29.92% of scoring against the Spurs defense, which surprisingly only has a 41.49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which may surprise many fantasy football managers. With Alli having a 39.35% chance of scoring, while Christian Eriksen only having a 30.59% chance of scoring, it might be worth having Dele instead of Eriksen for your game week one team. Though with a tough first game week, and an even tougher game week 2, it could be best leaving Spurs players until game week 3 overall.

Defensively it is unlikely Spurs will keep clean sheets over the first couple of game weeks, with starting full backs Danny Rose and Kieran Tripper injured, and with Wanyama carrying an injury, Spurs could be a very risky team to invest heavily in. Especially defensively.

As for Newcastle, I would not back them against what Spurs were last season, and don’t believe that Matt Ritchie, Dwight Gayle, or Alexander Mitrovic offer enough offensively to be in the side, while goalkeeper Rob Elliot at 4.0m is the only goalkeeper in the league which starts at his price point, which is enough of a reason to have him as your backup keeeper.

Manchester Utd v West Ham

Sunday 13th August / 16:00
Implied Chance Average Odds Best Price
Romelu Lukaku 58.64% 1.71 1.85
Marcus Rashford 47.70% 2.10 2.25
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 43.82% 2.28 2.50
Anthony Martial 41.76% 2.39 2.88
Juan Mata 36.94% 2.71 3.10
Andreas Pereira 32.47% 3.08 3.25
Jesse Lingard 33.28% 3.01 3.50
Paul Pogba 32.80% 3.05 3.75
Scott McTominay 26.32% 3.80 3.80
Javier Hernandez 23.02% 4.34 5.00
Marouane Fellaini 23.58% 4.24 5.00
Andy Carroll 19.14% 5.23 5.50
Ashley Young 17.39% 5.75 6.00
Diafra Sakho 17.58% 5.69 6.00
Michail Antonio 15.89% 6.29 6.50
Marko Arnautovic 18.42% 5.43 6.75
Andre Ayew 17.95% 5.57 7.00
Ander Herrera 20.09% 4.98 7.00
Manuel Lanzini 17.21% 5.81 7.50
Robert Snodgrass 15.63% 6.40 8.00
Domingos Quina 13.70% 7.30 8.00
Toni Martinez 16.97% 5.89 8.00
Nemanja Matic 14.46% 6.92 9.00
Demetri Mitchell 11.11% 9.00 9.00
Sead Haksabanovic 13.52% 7.39 9.00
Sofiane Feghouli 12.32% 8.12 10.00
Michael Carrick 12.55% 7.97 10.00
Antonio Valencia 11.67% 8.57 10.00
Luke Shaw 10.00% 10.00 10.00
Nathan Holland 12.78% 7.83 11.00
Mark Noble 11.24% 8.90 11.50
Chris Smalling 11.51% 8.69 11.50
Marcos Rojo 9.30% 10.75 11.50
Edimilson Fernandes 10.04% 9.96 12.50
Daley Blind 9.29% 10.76 13.00
Phil Jones 9.13% 10.95 13.00
Victor Lindelof 9.05% 11.05 14.00
Cheikhou Kouyate 7.50% 13.33 15.00
Moses Makasi 7.46% 13.40 15.00
No Goalscorer 8.20% 12.19 15.50
Axel Tuanzebe 9.74% 10.26 16.00
Eric Bailly 8.13% 12.30 16.00
Matteo Darmian 7.75% 12.90 17.00
Aaron Cresswell 7.33% 13.64 21.00
Declan Rice 4.59% 21.80 23.00
Winston Reid 5.36% 18.64 26.00
Pedro Obiang 4.73% 21.13 26.00
Sam Byram 4.80% 20.84 26.00
James Collins 4.96% 20.16 29.00
Jose Fonte 4.69% 21.32 29.00
Arthur Masuaku 4.27% 23.42 31.00
Pablo Zabaleta 4.28% 23.36 31.00
Angelo Ogbonna 3.20% 31.24 46.00

I’ve heard a lot of people say that Chicharito could be the bargain signing of the season at 7.0m, but looking at the implied chance of him scoring this game week at a meager 23.02% chance, you’d be far better investing that elsewhere. Perhaps the luxury signing of Romelu Lukaku could be a far smarter signing with the Belgian having an implied chance of scoring at 58.64%, over 2.5 times the implied chance of the little Mexican. Closely behind the Belgian is Manchester’s wunderkid Marcus Rashford at an implied chance of 47.70%, personally, I don’t think that Rashford is a good selection this season due to his rotation risk, and the fact he is most likely to play on the left, rather than at the focal point of the attack, as Lukaku is. You might find greater luck signing the Armenian attacker Henrikh Mkhitaryan who has an implied chance of 43.82%.

While there is still somewhat of an unknown when it comes to the backline Manchester United still have the second highest implied chance of keeping a clean sheet behind Chelsea for the opening fixture, while the odds imply it is pretty much nailed on that West Ham concede with their implied chance of a clean sheet being similar to that of Antonio Valencia scoring with an 11.67% implied chance. The most nailed on defenders in the United defense currently are De Gea (5.5m), Valencia (6.0m) and Bailly (6.0m) all of which are worth having in your defense from game week 1, with my personal selection being that of Bailly.

In Conclusion:

Chelsea (59.76%), Manchester United (54.92%) and Man City (52.45%) all are likely to keep clean sheets, while Southampton (49.81%) is almost a coin toss at keeping a clean sheet, many people would have considered Arsenal and Spurs likely to keep a clean sheet for the opening fixture, but having an Arsenal or a Spurs defender early on is seemingly less and less beneficial going by the odds. What may surprise many is that West Brom are only a 35.75% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Bournemouth, and that means Ben Foster, who kept only 6 clean sheets last season is out of my squad and replaced with Wayne Hennessy (4.5m) who has a 44.79% chance of keeping a clean sheet instead.

Offensively you would be a brave man going into the season without Romelu Lukaku, with the Belgian being the most likely scorer this week 58.64%, and United’s opening fixtures being West Ham, Swansea, Leicester, and Stoke, the new signing could really hit the ground running, and is expected to.

You would be less brave going into the season without Harry Kane, a proven goalscorer, with a penchant for starting slow. With Wembley being Spurs’ ‘home’ and their opening fixtures being against a Newcastle side they always struggle against, and the league Champions Chelsea it might be smarter to hold off on Kane until game week 3 against likely relegation candidates Burnley.

In midfield, a United, Liverpool and Chelsea midfielder is needed for early season fixtures, while cheap enablers such as RLC and Lokilo allow you to have better defenders in Bailly and Alonso.

So here is my team, good luck.

Capture

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5 comments on “Fantasy Premier League – Gameweek 1”

    1. Hi Mikael, sorry I should have clarified, the odds are for anytime goalscorer. So if someone is on average a 1.91 in decimal odds, or in fractional at 10/11, then the likelihood of them scoring is 1/1.91. Once you find the result is 0.5235 you use that as the percentage chance they have of scoring. Obviously people can score more than one goal, but by the metrics I’m currently using its only 1 goal or the likelihood of a clean sheet.

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